PFF crew taking CU by 3 and 4 points respectively.
They also said they both bet the +455 CU money line.
They also said they both bet the +455 CU money line.
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Official CU vs. Central Florida Score Prediction Thread
- Thread starter Duff Man
- Start date
Their prediction is based on the assumption that the CU offensive line can give Shedeur enough time so it becomes a shootout.
If this becomes a high score game I do think we have chance. To make it happen, Shedeur needs to make some quick throw, and not give up too many sacks.
This should be an easier matchup for the OL. All four of the front 4 guys are NFL draftable guys but they never stunt and they rarely blitz which is usually what gets this year's crew in trouble.
One thing I noticed about TCU was they got the ball out quickly but the bigger issue I noticed is UCF secondary is pure basura. This is by far the worst secondary we have played in two years. They are physical and have talent but their awareness is low and they stand around too much and don't be paying attention time and time again.
They have one sack through 3 games against New Hampshire, Sam Houston and TCU. Maybe our OL will make them look better than that, but their pass rush obviously hasn't been a difference maker so far.
IMO, their strength (running the ball) feeds into our strength (stopping the run) and our offensive strength (passing) feeds into their defensive weakness (stopping the pass). If our run D is good, not even great, I feel like this is a matchup that highly favors CU.
I am going with 42-28 CU. I like where we are against the rush. I expect 250 rushing yards but we'll below 350 or 400 yards. For a team that rushes 52+ a game. I think we have the abilities and the talent to stop the rush and we have the corners to lock down the pass. I do worry some about Kobe Hudson. He's a legit 3rd-5th round WR. I want to see 1st round Mckinney and I am very confident in our nickel (Hodge).
This is a money game for our linebackers. The law firm could put themselves in day 2 (NHG) and day 3 (Bentley) discussions with a great game.
This is also a money game for CSC. He's gonna have a lot of responsibilities and he has to be nearly 100% on his reads.
I really like 2 against this secondary. I also like our OL playing a team that likes to sit in coverage and play aggressive. Hopefully they change up somethings because they don't have light boxes often and we really don't run well on even or big boxes outside of under center with QB sneaks
This is a money game for our linebackers. The law firm could put themselves in day 2 (NHG) and day 3 (Bentley) discussions with a great game.
This is also a money game for CSC. He's gonna have a lot of responsibilities and he has to be nearly 100% on his reads.
I really like 2 against this secondary. I also like our OL playing a team that likes to sit in coverage and play aggressive. Hopefully they change up somethings because they don't have light boxes often and we really don't run well on even or big boxes outside of under center with QB sneaks
their DC will likely see the stunting and blitzing giving us issues and incorporate that. We can’t bank on them not adjusting based on film lol.
It's not something they do. If they just decide to do it against us, there is a good chance they will do it poorly, get stuck on blocks and 2 will have all day in the pocket to destroy their coverage unit.
It's not easy to change things up to packages you don't use for more than a play or two.
Blitzing is not hard to incorporate. Sure, stunting is more difficult to implement mid season. Blitzing is not.
Blitzing isn't but stunts are and you need to have guys good at the blitz. Remember how bad some of our guys last year were at blitzing from the LB position. If it's not something you do, it's not easy to just do it consistently in a game. While CU is currently bad at picking up stunts, they were going against one of the best teams in the nation at it in Baylor.
PFF summary:
It’s difficult to gauge just how good Colorado is this season. The Buffaloes’ three wins have come against teams that are either aren’t FBS schools or are outside the top-80 of PFF’s power rankings: North Dakota State, Colorado State (108th) and Baylor (83rd). Colorado’s one loss came to Nebraska, who’s 57th in that ranking and beat the Buffaloes by 18 points.
Colorado has improved some of its biggest issues defensively and has two of the best players in college football in Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders, but there are still significant issues up front on the offensive line that can hold this team back from Big 12 contention. This week against UCF, the No. 49 team in our power ranking, will help show just where the Buffaloes stand in the conference.
The common perception is that this would be a huge mismatch for a Colorado defense that ranked 122nd in run defense grade last season. The results through the Buffaloes’ first four games may tell a different story.
Colorado attacked the transfer portal this offseason with the idea of improving in the trenches. The Buffaloes acquired a ton of players in their front seven who were productive run defenders on their previous teams. That production has carried into Boulder.
Colorado currently has 12 players who have played at least 30 run defense snaps this season and earned at least a 70.0 run defense grade. Last season, the Buffaloes had four, and three of those players played less than 70 run-defense snaps across the entire season. Travis Hunter being their most consistent run defender was not a formula for success.
Transfer defensive linemen like Samuel Okunlola, Chidozie Nwankwo, B.J. Green, and Shane Cokes have all been solid against the run so far. The most shocking development, though, has been the play of their linebackers.
LaVonta Bentley, one of the few holdovers from last year, currently holds an 85.3 run-defense grade. That’s a massive improvement from last season’s 47.8 mark. Charlotte transfer Nikhai Hill-Green has seen heavier usage of late and responded by posting a 92.1 run defense grade that leads the Power Five. In tandem, they are playing incredibly sound yet aggressive football.
They still need some work when it comes to stopping quarterbacks from running the ball, but Colorado’s has vastly improved its run defense from last season. If the Buffaloes are up to a huge task against a dangerous UCF attack, their defensive front could be the reason they come away victorious.
If Colorado keeps Shedeuer Sanders clean, their passing attack becomes one of the most explosive in college football. His 93.1 PFF grade when kept clean is third among FBS quarterbacks. Sanders’ best trait is his ability to read and dissect a defense to find any of his talented pass-catchers who become open. The offensive line’s struggles to protect him essentially nerfs that attribute.
UCF’s been below average in terms of getting after the quarterback this season. The Knights are just 77th among FBS defenses in pressure rate (31.1%) while their two sacks are the fewest among Power Four ones. Their blitz rate (106th) and stunt rate (76th) are also well below average, so it’ll be on Colorado’s offensive line to win their head-to-head matchups.
While Colorado has some difficulties with UCF’s run game, it protects Shedeur Sanders enough for the Buffaloes to pull off the upset.
Dalton: Colorado 38, UCF 34
Colorado’s run defense is much improved. If they can make this game about the quarterbacks, they hold a big advantage. Colorado gets a season-changing win.
Colorado Buffaloes at UCF Knights (3:30 PM EST on FOX)
Storyline to know: A good barometer game for ColoradoIt’s difficult to gauge just how good Colorado is this season. The Buffaloes’ three wins have come against teams that are either aren’t FBS schools or are outside the top-80 of PFF’s power rankings: North Dakota State, Colorado State (108th) and Baylor (83rd). Colorado’s one loss came to Nebraska, who’s 57th in that ranking and beat the Buffaloes by 18 points.
Colorado has improved some of its biggest issues defensively and has two of the best players in college football in Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders, but there are still significant issues up front on the offensive line that can hold this team back from Big 12 contention. This week against UCF, the No. 49 team in our power ranking, will help show just where the Buffaloes stand in the conference.
Matchup to watch when UCF has the ball (Dalton): UCF’s dynamic rushing attack vs. Colorado’s potentially emerging run defense
Led by star running back RJ Harvey, UCF is currently leading the FBS in rush yards per game. The Knights also rank fifth in rushing grade. Excluding sacks, they’ve rushed for over 1,100 yards in their three games. Gus Malzahn is a master of creating opportunities in space for his playmakers.The common perception is that this would be a huge mismatch for a Colorado defense that ranked 122nd in run defense grade last season. The results through the Buffaloes’ first four games may tell a different story.
Colorado run defense:
| Run Defense Grade | 15th |
| LB Run Defense Grade | 3rd |
| EPA/Rush Allowed | 39th |
| Run Stops | 14th |
Colorado currently has 12 players who have played at least 30 run defense snaps this season and earned at least a 70.0 run defense grade. Last season, the Buffaloes had four, and three of those players played less than 70 run-defense snaps across the entire season. Travis Hunter being their most consistent run defender was not a formula for success.
Transfer defensive linemen like Samuel Okunlola, Chidozie Nwankwo, B.J. Green, and Shane Cokes have all been solid against the run so far. The most shocking development, though, has been the play of their linebackers.
LaVonta Bentley, one of the few holdovers from last year, currently holds an 85.3 run-defense grade. That’s a massive improvement from last season’s 47.8 mark. Charlotte transfer Nikhai Hill-Green has seen heavier usage of late and responded by posting a 92.1 run defense grade that leads the Power Five. In tandem, they are playing incredibly sound yet aggressive football.
They still need some work when it comes to stopping quarterbacks from running the ball, but Colorado’s has vastly improved its run defense from last season. If the Buffaloes are up to a huge task against a dangerous UCF attack, their defensive front could be the reason they come away victorious.
Matchup to watch when Colorado has the ball (Max): Can Colorado’s offensive line hold up just enough?
As Dalton illustrated, Colorado significantly improved its physicality on defense. However, there are still issues in the trenches offensively. The Buffaloes have allowed a pressure on 35.7% of their dropbacks this season, the eighth-worst mark among Power Four schools. Their 17 sacks allowed are tied for the fourth-most in the country.If Colorado keeps Shedeuer Sanders clean, their passing attack becomes one of the most explosive in college football. His 93.1 PFF grade when kept clean is third among FBS quarterbacks. Sanders’ best trait is his ability to read and dissect a defense to find any of his talented pass-catchers who become open. The offensive line’s struggles to protect him essentially nerfs that attribute.
UCF’s been below average in terms of getting after the quarterback this season. The Knights are just 77th among FBS defenses in pressure rate (31.1%) while their two sacks are the fewest among Power Four ones. Their blitz rate (106th) and stunt rate (76th) are also well below average, so it’ll be on Colorado’s offensive line to win their head-to-head matchups.
Predictions
Max: Colorado 33, UCF 30While Colorado has some difficulties with UCF’s run game, it protects Shedeur Sanders enough for the Buffaloes to pull off the upset.
Dalton: Colorado 38, UCF 34
Colorado’s run defense is much improved. If they can make this game about the quarterbacks, they hold a big advantage. Colorado gets a season-changing win.
jaybird
Well-Known Member
This actually seems like a better match up than the spread.
UCF is dead last in sacks. And not very good in pass defense(ranked like 94ish).
This should allow #2 to have a good day in the air and we should score alot of points.
I have confidence that Livingston will have an answer to contain a QB that can beat you with his legs and Hunter is gonna once again shut down half the field on pass plays. However, UCF is still gonna be able to run the ball.
It's gonna be a high scoring game, but I think our superior QB and Travis are once again the difference makers in this game.
As long as our special teams don't **** us....
CU 45 - UCF 34
UCF is dead last in sacks. And not very good in pass defense(ranked like 94ish).
This should allow #2 to have a good day in the air and we should score alot of points.
I have confidence that Livingston will have an answer to contain a QB that can beat you with his legs and Hunter is gonna once again shut down half the field on pass plays. However, UCF is still gonna be able to run the ball.
It's gonna be a high scoring game, but I think our superior QB and Travis are once again the difference makers in this game.
As long as our special teams don't **** us....
CU 45 - UCF 34
Nebraska has 11 sacks so far, 6 of them comes from playing us.
Baylor has 12 sacks so far, 8 of them comes from playing us.
It's a sack party whenever a team with decent DL playing us. I fully expect UCF to have 5+ sacks in this game.
I think this game will boil down to turnovers. We win that battle, we win. 36-32
UCF still has one of the lowest pressure rates in the country. It’s all relative. Our OL hasn’t been very good and Shedeur holding the ball too long hasn’t helped, but UCF isn’t close to Baylor and Nebraska with QB pressure. Both of those teams also have far better secondaries than UCF, which cause Shedeur to hold the ball longer.
Birch1
Well-Known Member
Also more opportunities for sacks as we don’t run as much. But you’d think we’d develop a quick game. It’s so odd that 99% of our pass plays take time to develop.
I am waiting for Passerby to tell me how best to position my stack so I can win $100
This is my kind of analysis
We have guys open underneath, it's just Shedeur always wait for long development route. Baylor has good coverage, I don't think Nebraska's secondary is that good. We made them look good.
That's exactly the issue I see. We don't have to give up those sacks. At least half of the sacks against Baylor is Shedeur holding the ball forever to wait for a route development.
And this is especially true when we are 1+ TD behind. When Shedeur has his mind set on "we need to pass to catch up with the score here", everything else goes away, no running concept, no quick option, it's just him sitting in the pocket and fans praying for a heroic play. The crazy thing is he and WRs are just that good to make a lot of heroic plays, but the tendency is definitely there: when Colorado is behind and Shedeur wants to pass, it's going to be either 3&out or big play.
Many Baylor sacks were coverage sacks. By the time we had a WR open, 2 was hit. Could they have held their blocks longer at this level, of course but in the NFL, this also happens so he had a nice taste of what happens in the NFL.
Well the answer to that would be run some quicker developing routes. When we have a 4wr set, do all 4 need to runs 15+ yard routes?
2 regularly ignores RB leak outs. That cost him at least 2 sacks.
I suggest 3 things. All of which they did
1. Dump offs to the RB in the flats. Tried it, sucked.
2. Bring in non RBs and dumps off in the flats or in the soft spot of the D. Worked each time with the Miller's. Only did it once. Need to do it more this week.
3. Use the RB to pick up blitz backer and throw to the soft part of coverage. In this case since they are MOD, the middle of the field. They bet that their rush would beat our protection and they won that battle. This clearly didn't work and our RBs have to improve at pass pro. Watch Bijan Robinson. One of the best at pass pro in football.
He didn't ignore any from what I saw. He might have missed one dropping his eyes on the pass rush but he was getting hit. Let's not be idiotic. He wasn't clean back there like 2001 Ken Dorsey.
Then you missed some. It's part of why he was getting hit.
Of course but realistically, he's going to drop his head. All QBs do in that situation
Ok?