Official Game Thread - Colorado vs TCU: Sko Buffs!!!

[Tatanka™]

Would have been a shame if this game had been stuck on Apple+.
I'm so glad CU is Big12 bound. Buffs going to be on several national broadcasts the next several years.

Never change!

 

[Ringer]

TCU's stadium looks pretty nice and intimate for 50k+ fans, kinda like Folsom (except Folsom is much nicer). That visiting locker facility is trash, though. This game will set up a rivalry for the years to come in the Big12.

 

[SeanMSan]

It's stuff like this which leads to some heat for a rivalry:

Enjoy having hair plugs at 26, dork!

 

[GawainBuff]

Well. Apparently Travis still has quite a bit of energy. lol

 

[tante]

It will be interesting to see the viewership for the game. I wouldn't be surprised if we had over 5 million viewers. It seems like every site has 5x Buffs engagement compared to any other team

 

[DBT]

I know about when it happened. Early December probably. But I can’t remember seeing the signs. You know, like a sudden, weird wind, the sun rising 10 minutes late, some kind of anomaly. But at some point we crossed into an alternate universe.

 

[PhillyBuff]

Gus has always been a pro.

I know that for some announcers preparing for the game involves watching a lot of game film so they can get to know who is where and when, get used to putting names to numbers and following tendencies.

Not saying this was the problem for Gus, just don't know but just like the rest of us he had very little to work with coming into the game. This team is a whole new collection of players running an offense (and defense) that is new to the players and the fans

Announcers can normally anticipate a call much of the time. Today he had no better idea of what to expect than we did.

I think it was more that he missed the punt by calling it in the endzone when it was out at the 1 yard line and he made some really late calls where he paused.

 

[ahoelsken]

Would have been a shame if this game had been stuck on Apple+.
I'm so glad CU is Big12 bound. Buffs going to be on several national broadcasts the next several years.

This is making me thinking of Schlereth and Evans' Paxton Lynch smear campaign.

I'm not saying that the overreaction chamber is running on full power, but the dude on the radio a bit ago was asking, in all seriousness, if Shedeur and Hunter would both be in NYC for the Heisman ceremony.

That dude thinks we're going to embarrass Nebraska lol.

 

[PhillyBuff]

It's stuff like this which leads to some heat for a rivalry:

What a jackass. If he is 18 or older, Deion should shove his foot right up his ass so hard that it comes out of his mouth and he can count CP' toes through his buck teeth.

If he is 17 or younger... CP should just pat him on the head.

 

[Ringer]

The last nine months really have been, and its really made me look at Rick George in a new light. I thought Prime was going to do great things when an AD finally had the balls to give him an opportunity because of who CP is. He interviewed He needs total control of the football operation from the jump.....and that's why this situation is PERFECT for him. I don't see a lot of SEC (in particular schools) being able to get out of his way like CU can. I thought the baseball comment was telling-this is a guy who prides himself on his honesty. He wants to build another Alabama HERE, and he took a brand new team to TCU and beat them 9 months after they played for a national title. This team is definitely better than I thought they were, and I had 6-6.


RG has taken a ton of **** here, but he had the guts to make this move when a number of other schools (TCU included) did not. The sky's the limit here now, and its because RG believed in Prime.

Rick George has had many legacy accomplishments at CU, including completing the funding and construction of the Folsom improvements, and hiring Deion, while managing all the other sports. On a personal level, the guy has an uncanny ability to recognize and remember people (including me) that he randomly met months or years ago. He is going to retire in 3 years, but will leave the program better than he found it.

 

[manhattanbuff]

Model hit some crumbs and missed on the cake, nice.

No idiot. You don’t understand predictive analytics or gambling, so let me help you.

The model simulates game outcomes thousands and thousands of times in order to give the best possible insight about the game so you can exploit bad lines. The goal is to understand game outcomes in terms of frequency. At home, this TCU wins but does not cover a pretty healthy percentage of the time. The closeness of the game outcome and the outrageous plays made in the RZ by Woods and T. Hunter dictates that this is the case.

How does that apply to gambling? The most outcomes relative to a bettable line was the total. The game (i.e. who wins and by how much) only matters insofar as the probability of one outcome occuring enough to justify a bet. So, even though TCU wins more simulations than Colorado, they don’t win enough to bet them on a line that’s -800 to -900. They don’t cover 21 points 52% of the the time either.

But where there was conviction between the vast majority (>78%) outcomes was 60+ total game points. This is why the system recommended a major sizing on the total. Turns out: that was the play and it wasn’t for crumbs. A few extraordinary plays go differently and Colorado loses. I’m happy that today had the less likely outcome come to fruition on the side. That doesn’t mean the predictions were “wrong”.

 

[Leon Sandcastle]

Probably too emotional for most and I'm sorry in advance. But wow today was a whirlwind. From waking up and seeing Prime this, CU that, Prime that, CU this, on Gameday and Big Noon back and forth, it felt surreal.

It felt surreal watching interviews of coach Prime and nearly being brought to tears from how he spoke about this university.

It felt surreal watching this team stuff TCU on the first drive for a 3 and out and then immediately marching down the field for a score.

It felt surreal watching our Buffs going back and forth with TCU and not feeling the sense of doom that I have felt in years past watching us go down by 1, 2, 3, scores knowing we had no chance to come back.

It felt surreal watching this team get the ball back with less than 7 minutes left and thinking "I'm confident that this team can go down the field and score"

It felt surreal as Dylan Edwards crossed that goal line and tears started rolling because we went from the laughing stock of college football for the last 19 years, to a team that can compete with 99% of power 5 teams.

It felt surreal knowing that a lot of us have stuck with this team for all these years when we had every reason not to and we finally have coach that cares, a coach that is talented enough, and team that wants it enough.

I love all of you members (except for the fusker tools, see you pu**ies next week) and all of you lurkers.

Fight CU

It’s fans like you that make this work

 

[AeroBuff99]

No idiot. You don’t understand predictive analytics or gambling, so let me help you.

The model simulates game outcomes thousands and thousands of times in order to give the best possible insight about the game so you can exploit bad lines. The goal is to understand game outcomes in terms of frequency. At home, this TCU wins but does not cover a pretty healthy percentage of the time. The closeness of the game outcome and the outrageous plays made in the RZ by Woods and T. Hunter dictates that this is the case.

How does that apply to gambling? The most outcomes relative to a bettable line was the total. The game (i.e. who wins and by how much) only matters insofar as the probability of one outcome occuring enough to justify a bet. So, even though TCU wins more simulations than Colorado, they don’t win enough to bet them on a line that’s -800 to -900. They don’t cover 21 points 52% of the the time either.

But where there was conviction between the vast majority (>78%) outcomes was 60+ total game points. This is why the system recommended a major sizing on the total. Turns out: that was the play and it wasn’t for crumbs. A few extraordinary plays go differently and Colorado loses. I’m happy that today had the less likely outcome come to fruition on the side. That doesn’t mean the predictions were “wrong”.

I guess some people on this board need to take a refresher in probability and statistics. Just because a model predicts an outcome doesn't mean it is wrong. Kinda like when 538 does election predictions and people all scream about how it was wrong, when in reality the prediction was pretty damn close within the predicted margin of error and distribution of outcomes.

 

[MtnBuff]

I think it was more that he missed the punt by calling it in the endzone when it was out at the 1 yard line and he made some really late calls where he paused.

There were some like those, it seemed that he was have a harder time than normal following the action.

Considering this was first game of the season and he had almost nothing to prepare with for it I don't think he did a terrible job overall, far from his best but not terrible.

 

[Leon Sandcastle]

Buffs knew they were the better team from the jump. Crazy to watch that transformation over the offseason.

No matter what happens this year, next year will be interesting to say the least.

 

[DBT]

I think it was more that he missed the punt by calling it in the endzone when it was out at the 1 yard line and he made some really late calls where he paused.

He mixed up CU and TCU a couple of times. But the weirdest was when he called a missed FG “incomplete.” Wut?

 

[manhattanbuff]

I guess some people on this board need to take a refresher in probability and statistics. Just because a model predicts an outcome doesn't mean it is wrong. Kinda like when 538 does election predictions and people all scream about how it was wrong, when in reality the prediction was pretty damn close within the predicted margin of error and distribution of outcomes.

100%.

RE: gambling, Odds have an implied probability that the sportsbook assigns to the outcome along with a corresponding handicap. If your model is good, you assess probabilities and handicaps better than the sportsbook does. That means you post wins over the long haul because events begin to match up with your frequencies. If your model is bad, you are not assessing probabilities and handicaps frequently enough to win over a large sample.

 

[JMBuffs]

He mixed up CU and TCU a couple of times. But the weirdest was when he called a missed FG “incomplete.” Wut?

Give Gus a break, he was probably distracted by Klatt's boner the entire game

 

[Trogdor]

Gus has always been a pro.

I know that for some announcers preparing for the game involves watching a lot of game film so they can get to know who is where and when, get used to putting names to numbers and following tendencies.

Not saying this was the problem for Gus, just don't know but just like the rest of us he had very little to work with coming into the game. This team is a whole new collection of players running an offense (and defense) that is new to the players and the fans

Announcers can normally anticipate a call much of the time. Today he had no better idea of what to expect than we did.

FFS it's his JOB. He didn't know that getting a first down by going out of bounds with 30 seconds left was better than staying in bounds and having 4th and 1 while TCU had a timeout. Also, he's the opposite of professional. Watch ANY USC game.

Second down and four at the Utah 48, 12 minutes left here in 2nd quarter, USC RB takes the hand off BOUNCES OUTSIDE CAN HE DO IT YES AND KNOCKED OUT OF BOUNDS AT THE 45!

Rising drops back to pass, has a man open, he catches it and now he's running and he ran after catching it for a 65 yard touchdown. The score has now been adjusted in Utah's favor. But BOY am I excited to see what USC can do with the 7 seconds left in the game down 4.

He's not Rod Gilmore levels of egomania, but he's the quintessential announcer who wants to create a narrative during the game about his own performance and not of the one on the field. He'd make a great NBA official or MLB ump.

 

[DBT]

I was listing to 92.5 the other day. I can’t remember if it was the morning guys or the noon guys but they were talking about the Colorado programs and one of them said, “But you know which program is the best in the state, don’t ya? Air Force! They consistently when 10 games every year! Yada yada yada.”

Stuff it!!

 

[dio]

I was listing to 92.5 the other day. I can’t remember if it was the morning guys or the noon guys but they were talking about the Colorado programs and one of the said, “But you know which program is the best in the state, don’t ya? Air Force! They consistently when 10 games every year! Yada yada yada.”

Stuff it!!

Probably the morning guys - Vic does their broadcast

 

[DBT]

Probably the morning guys - Vic does their broadcast

I think it was Vic, whom I like.

 

[torero]

FFS it's his JOB. He didn't know that getting a first down by going out of bounds with 30 seconds left was better than staying in bounds and having 4th and 1 while TCU had a timeout. Also, he's the opposite of professional. Watch ANY USC game.

Second down and four at the Utah 48, 12 minutes left here in 2nd quarter, USC RB takes the hand off BOUNCES OUTSIDE CAN HE DO IT YES AND KNOCKED OUT OF BOUNDS AT THE 45!

Rising drops back to pass, has a man open, he catches it and now he's running and he ran after catching it for a 65 yard touchdown. The score has now been adjusted in Utah's favor. But BOY am I excited to see what USC can do with the 7 seconds left in the game down 4.

He's not Rod Gilmore levels of egomania, but he's the quintessential announcer who wants to create a narrative during the game about his own performance and not of the one on the field. He'd make a great NBA official or MLB ump.

Gus is awesome. Although he seems to have lost a step and isn’t quite as sharp as he used to be. God forbid someone get excited and have fun during sports. Also…

 

[Trogdor]

Gus is awesome. Although he seems to have lost a step and isn’t quite as sharp as he used to be. God forbid someone get excited and have fun during sports. Also…

I'm all for excitement, he brings some. He's also otherwise terrible. Mike Breen is the best NBA play by play guy because he yells "BANG" every 3 pointer. No.

 

[Mango]

View attachment 64047

Heheheheh

 

[leftybuff]

Long day. What a game.

Shedeur is deadly accurate.

Hunter is on another level. Completely overwhelming talent.

The DL got manhandled. A few lame chest tackles.

But a HUGE W on the road.

Sat with some TCU donors. Hugely dejected lot at the end but gracious and good hosts.

This is huge. We are back and we will destroy.

 

[Buffnik]

 

[FLounder]

No idiot. You don’t understand predictive analytics or gambling, so let me help you.

The model simulates game outcomes thousands and thousands of times in order to give the best possible insight about the game so you can exploit bad lines. The goal is to understand game outcomes in terms of frequency. At home, this TCU wins but does not cover a pretty healthy percentage of the time. The closeness of the game outcome and the outrageous plays made in the RZ by Woods and T. Hunter dictates that this is the case.

How does that apply to gambling? The most outcomes relative to a bettable line was the total. The game (i.e. who wins and by how much) only matters insofar as the probability of one outcome occuring enough to justify a bet. So, even though TCU wins more simulations than Colorado, they don’t win enough to bet them on a line that’s -800 to -900. They don’t cover 21 points 52% of the the time either.

But where there was conviction between the vast majority (>78%) outcomes was 60+ total game points. This is why the system recommended a major sizing on the total. Turns out: that was the play and it wasn’t for crumbs. A few extraordinary plays go differently and Colorado loses. I’m happy that today had the less likely outcome come to fruition on the side. That doesn’t mean the predictions were “wrong”.

all those words and you still don’t get it

 

[manhattanbuff]

all those words and you still don’t get it

you’re right: nobody gets your idiotic takes.

 

[FLounder]

you’re right: nobody gets your idiotic takes.

Models don’t account for heart and art, it’s just a bunch of hot air, like a fart.