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Official realignment thread - SEC formally invites OU and Texas to join the conference in 2025
How come?
They don't add much of anything to a conference which needs viewers in the central and eastern time zones.
I would argue that they would immediately be top half brand in the Pac 12 and that they are a top 2-3 G5 national brand that would peak interest in those time zones if they were playing at the P5 level, but I digress.
What would be your ideal and realistic expansion plans for the Pac 12?
this, this, this. I agree, the next round of realignment will be about content quality, not media markets.
I know you hate the Pac-12, but wow.
You can't complain incessantly about the Pac-12 being small-time and be such a cheerleader for Boise being a value add.
The Pac-12 needs at least two CTZ teams to actually make expansion worthwhile.
I don't hate the Pac 12, I just think the leadership has been awful, it's clearly the most irrelevant P5 conference on a national scale and it's become a punch line. I know you like to poo poo all that to be a contrarian to the national media and narrative, but you've also never really had much to say on the subject that backs up why you feel that way. Maybe it's because you have emotional ties to a program in a conference that matters?I know you hate the Pac-12, but wow.
You can't complain incessantly about the Pac-12 being small-time and be such a cheerleader for Boise being a value add.
The Pac-12 needs at least two CTZ teams to actually make expansion worthwhile.
I'm not suggesting that Boise State in the Pac 12 is the cure to all the conference ills, but it's a pretty successful program that's recognizable on the national level. From the G5 pool, I would rather have Houston and recognize that there is more value in expanding into the CTZ.
The Pac-12 has major issues. Across the board.
But if you think Boise is instantly a top half brand in the conference, we are in MUCH deeper **** than anyone here thinks.
Add New Mexico, problem solved.
I guess it depends on how you define brand. They are usually the #1 or #2 recruiting G5 program in the country with Cincinnati. They are more relevant and successful on the national level currently than Oregon State, Arizona, Washington State and maybe Colorado and Cal. Are ASU and Utah really viewed that much more favorably from a pure brand perspective than Boise? Maybe? I think Boise could have similar success as Utah did going from G5 to P5, but with a national brand behind them.
The Boise brand is not close to the top half in the conference. Their "national brand" is really superficial. This is not the Chris Petersen era anymore.
Who would you like to see the Pac 12 add?
Houston, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State would be an ideal scenario (it won't happen).
Utah has a large alumni base and is in a metro area of over 2 million people.
TCU has a rich af alumni base and is in a metro area of over 7 million people.
Boise has a much smaller alumni base and is in a metro area of 500,000 people.
Boise could potentially be a good addition in football, but if a P5 schedule proved to be too much for them, do you see them having the resources to build a sustainable program?
I see them as having a ceiling similar to Washington State. If the Pac-12 had to do it over again, would they bring Wazzu in?
Agree on those, wouldn't BYU make sense as well?
Duff answered the dream scenario.
Realistically, if we believe the G5 route is the only way we could go, it has to be UNLV and Houston.
I think it's been well-established that the religion thing will keep BYU out of the Pac-12 forever.
BYU kinda ****ed themselves too, by going independent and finding out that they don't have the brand marketability that Notre Dame does.
As I said, BSU is the top recruiting G5 program in the country on a regular basis and have won at an almost 80% clip, even post Chris Petersen. They have a brand that has been built over the last two decades and they haven't seen an appreciable drop off in success across three different coaches. Joining a P5 conference would give them more resources and bring them to the table for the same P5 recruits as the rest of the conference. You really think they would struggle to out recruit at least a third of the current Pac 12 in year one?
Yeah, moving a team that draws 25,000 a game into a P5 conference is going to magically double their popularity making them a valuable addition. Not happening.
Certainly taking a G5 team and adding them to a P5 conference will increase fan interest, historically that has been true. It has also been true that that increase isn't the dramatic difference needed to make them worth adding.
Locally CSU has dreams of going P5. Are they going to suddenly start drawing 40-45,000 fans per game? No. In their best seasons they barely drew over 30,000. You are talking about a 50% increase.
That is the same fantasy that they used to sell their stadium project and despite an initial boost the numbers were already trending back towards their historical averages before Covid hit.
100% agree on this. I have long focused on western sports conferences and with the coronavirus outbreak, I was able to take a break from that and look east of the Rockies and enjoyed watching more competitive football. With something like ESPN+, I don't have to watch those games that day but later during the next week after reading about how good those games were. Same for those re-runs of conference games on the conference networks.
I see, I've been up there. That place is stranger than a three headed gato.
They absolutely dominate their market already, they aren't going to draw significantly larger numbers of fans to the stadium or to TV screens. Yes they have won and won a lot for years but that doesn't translate into national or even regional TV numbers. It's why they are still stuck on backwater TV channels at weird times for most of their games.
Initially they would out recruit a number of current PAC schools. They wouldn't out recruit enough to stay dominant and as soon as they slip back to or below the middle then any recruiting edge that all those winning records brought them goes away and they sink to the bottom of the standings.
CSU has Texas Tech, Washington State, and Arizona visiting Ft. Collins this decade. They only drew 31K against Arkansas. I have believed in CSU being a possible Pac-12 or Big 12 expansion candidate but that belief is in decline. CSU is going to have to prove that they can draw their best crowds in those games because that will be compared to what CU has drawn in the past with those same three schools.
What I'm saying is they have 0 margin for error, even in the Pac-12. You're really gung-ho on them being able to perpetually sustain this success, even though they just lost their head coach. If Avalon struggles and they fall on hard times, in the MWC, they can rebuild. In a P5 conference, if they fall behind, they don't have the resources of pretty much any Pac-12 school with the possible exception of Washington State.
CSU has no chance at a P5 invite unless someone loses their mind. They have no fanbase, a disinterested alumni base, and their AD is in disarray, with no relief in sight from their administration.
And keep in mind that those games will be outliers, best case opportunities.
There is a novelty to playing P5 schools for a G5 school. There is also the increased interest from the fan base of the visiting school, either those living in the area or those who travel once simply because it is a destination they haven't been to before.
Once it becomes a regular game the casual fans who might go to one or two games a year aren't coming more often and the visitors fans don't have a big incentive to come.
This is the case with most G5 schools. Are fans from Boise or Vegas or Tulane going to come to Boulder or Corvalis every other year? Not many.
The Boise talk is funny. How many Boise alums who care enough to buy a ticket live close to other PAC schools.
That is something you could say about Washington State when it comes to ADs being in disarray with no relief in sight from their administration due to questionable spending for athletics. Even ASU and Texas' ADs were in disarray under their former ADs. WSU & OSU's fanbases aren't big either but the WSU fanbase is rabid for a small fanbase.
CSU did sell their stadium out for its debut against OSU. WSU, UA, and TT games are the type of games to prove to the Pac-12 and Big 12 that they can draw strong crowds to that stadium. If they can't, it will kill their P5 hopes for a very long time.
What hasn't been brought up is how many of those fans are Idaho Vandal alumni who reside in the Boise area are Boise State season ticket buyers and are unwilling to make that long drive up north to Moscow. That means the true Boise State fanbase is even smaller than it appears. That is something that is discussed on the MWCBoard.
It's not going to be about attracting ticket sales and eyeballs in the market. Everyone across the country pretty much has access to every P5 game if they want it. It's going to be about which conferences generate the most intriguing games and put out the best product.
There is a reason why the NFL doesn't give any ****s about the TV market of a particular city. Games played in Green Bay, WI generate far more eyeballs and revenue for the NFL than games played in NYC, LA, Miami, Chicago, or SF. This is the way sports content is going, and college football is not going to continue to be some big outlier. The conferences that can brand and market their programs and matchups the best will get the viewers across the country and therefore the big $$ deals.
Let's be clear: Washington State would be nowhere near a P5 standard school if they weren't grandfathered in.