Pac-12 Expansion Candidates - Academic Criteria

[Buffnik]

Since there's been some discussion of this topic in the Boise State, Nebraska and Pac-12 Network threads, I wanted to put this into its own place.

To once again put the academic side of potential expansion into terms everyone should understand (because this will always be a factor whether we like it or not):

Besides ARWU rank (the Shanghai world rank that CU is so strong in), other factors are AAU classification and whether a school is rated as a Carnegie Tier One Research University. My impression is that Tier One is the minimum requirement for a school to be invited to the Pac-12, ARWU Top 100 is a huge bonus, and that AAU punches the ticket for any school within the region that has anything resembling P5 level athletics.

I've done this before, but it bears repeating. This is a great cheat sheet for what schools the Pac-12 might consider and which it will not.

For Carnegie, the last ranking was in 2016 and the 2020 rank is going to have a big impact on whether certain schools become viable candidates by moving into "peer" status. A total of 115 universities were listed as R1 in 2016.

R1 = Doctoral Universities: Highest Research Classification
R2 = Doctoral Universities: Higher Research Classification
R3 = Doctoral Universities: Moderate Research Classification

Within the Pac-12 footprint or bordering it, here are the candidates with their Carnegie Tier Research classification, their ARWU rank and whether they're in the AAU. I also put in the current Pac-12 members for comparison.

Pac-12

School	Conference	Carnegie	ARWU	AAU
Arizona	Pac-12	R1	99	Yes
Arizona State	Pac-12	R1	101-150	No
Cal	Pac-12	R1	5	Yes
Colorado	Pac-12	R1	43	Yes
Oregon	Pac-12	R1	201-300	Yes
Oregon State	Pac-12	R1	151-200	No
Stanford	Pac-12	R!	2	Yes
UCLA	Pac-12	R1	12	Yes
USC	Pac-12	R1	54	Yes
Utah	Pac-12	R1	101-150	No
Washington	Pac-12	R1	13	Yes
Washington State	Pac-12	R1	401-500	No

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Candidates

School	Conference	Carnegie	ARWU	AAU
Fresno State	Mountain West	R3	>500	No
San Diego State	Mountain West	R2	>500	No
San Jose State	Mountain West	unrated	>500	No
UC Davis	FCS	R1	85	Yes
UC San Diego	FCS	R1	15	Yes
Hawaii	Mountain West (football only)	R1	201-300	No
Boise State	Mountain West	R3	>500	No
BYU	Independent	R2	301-400	No
Utah State	Mountain West	R2	>500	No
Nevada	Mountain West	R2	>500	No
UNLV	Mountain West	R2	>500	No
Wyoming	Mountain West	R2	401-500	No
Colorado State	Mountain West	R1	201-300	No
Air Force	Mountain West	R3	>500	No
New Mexico	Mountain West	R1	301-400	No
New Mexico State	Independent	R2	401-500	No
Nebraska	Big Ten	R1	151-200	No
Kansas	Big 12	R1	201-300	Yes
Kansas State	Big 12	R1	>500	No
Oklahoma	Big 12	R1	401-500	No
Oklahoma State	Big 12	R2	401-500	No
Tulsa	American	R2	>500	No
Baylor	Big 12	R2	>500	No
Houston	American	R1	201-300	No
Rice	Conference USA	R1	74	Yes
SMU	American	R2	>500	No
TCU	Big 12	R2	>500	No
Texas	Big 12	R1	51	Yes
Texas A&M	SEC	R1	101-150	Yes
Texas Tech	Big 12	R1	>500	No
UTEP	Conference USA	R2	>500	No
UTSA	Conference USA	R2	>500	No

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The list of AAU members is very short. Those are the programs that would actually enhance the reputation of the Pac-12 in terms of research intensity. Kansas, Rice, Texas and Texas A&M plus UC Davis & UC San Diego which are currently FCS and not viable for that reason.

After that, the other rank that the presidents would see as enhancing the academic reputation of the conference are the Top 100 ARWU schools. With that list, Rice, Texas, UC Davis and UC San Diego are the only ones that appear here and were on the AAU list - and these are the only Top 100 ARWUs.

Next, we can look at other schools that are Carnegie R1 institutions. That's a minimum requirement. This is a much longer list. UC Davis, UC San Diego, Hawaii, Colorado State, New Mexico, Kansas, Kansas State, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Houston, Rice, Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech. Anyone who didn't make this list needs to obtain R1 classification when the 2020 ratings come out or it's hard to imagine an invite coming from the Pac-12.

 

[hokiehead]

I still like the University of British Columbia. not AAU members (only two Canadien schools are and they're both eastern). #36 world wide on that Shanghai rating. The Carnegie ranking you reference is only US schools, but the Thunderbirds are 29th in the world in the HEEACT ranking (research based on academic papers -- sure there are others, i just grabbed that off wiki).

moving from Canadian football to American can't be a much bigger leap than bringing up the FCS schools you mentioned to D1.

the travel would be better (shorter, cheaper flight as Vancouver is a hub), or comparable, than all the other schools you mentioned for most of the existing Pac schools (OK, New Mexico would be quite a bit better for Colorado, but still -- look at a map of the current Pac and tell me Vancouver won't work).

the Pac clearly has an affinity for international exposure.

 

[Buffnik]

Here are the links I forgot to post:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_research_universities_in_the_United_States
http://www.shanghairanking.com/ARWU2017.html
https://www.aau.edu/sites/default/f...e/AAU-Member-Universities--Admission-Year.pdf

 

[White_Rabbit]

Houston +1

What about UTSA? I'm sure they love football there, it's Texas, hopefully they can get to R1 status in 2020.

Other than that, UNLV maybe, eh.. SDSU I like, but I can see what others mean when they say it doesn't add much. Maybe take SDSU's football team, give it to UCSD, and we're set.

New Mexico does nothing for me, they've been awful in football forever.

I think the play is Houston plus steal some disgruntled B12 member.

 

[SandBuff]

I agree that acedemics are important, but even more important is expandinding with schools that also have large fan bases. I posted this on here before, and people thought it was outrageous, but I think an expansion should aim high and focus on getting into the central time zone. That would bring schools with lots of fans and give the conference football games that begin at 11 am, a much more viewed time period than the late night games. I’d also drop Wash St and Ore St and go with four, 4-team pods.

Here’s my ideal Pac16 conference

California Pod
USC
UCLA
Cal
Stan
The CA schools would be happy that they are together.

Desert Pod
ASU
Ariz
Utah
UNLV
UNLV would need to upgrade their acedemic standing. They could move their desert research institute from Reno to LV. Being in LV could have fanancial rewards (advertising $)

North Pod
CU
UW
Ore
UBC
Like Hokie I also covet the U of British Columbia. They would have to build an athletic program basically from scratch, but they could scavenge from WSU and OSU. CU is a geographic outlier in this Pod, but I think it’s a good cultural fit with the pacific nw, and we have potential to be bitter rivals with Udub and Ore.

Central Pod
Texas
Okla
Kansas
Norte Dame
ND an Texas are the prizes in any expansion scenario so why not get them both. They command market shares that would pull the pac16 to the same level as the SEC and BiG (hopefully). ND is the geographical outlier but I think they’d like being in the same conference as USC and Stan. They could keep their NBC deal and get a half share in the Pac16 tv deal. Texas could keep the LHN if it continues to exist and accept being an equal member instead of the dominamt member. That might be a tough one to pull off. They might find it appealing to be grouped with other prestigious schools. Look at Stan, UCLA, Cal, and UW’s ARWU rankings and tell me UT wouldn’t want to be part of that. They’d also get to pal around with USC and ND as a bonus.

Please pass this on to Larry Scott.

WSU and OSU along with BYU, Boise St, and SDSU could join the depleted Big12. My last thought is Mizzou should be in the BiG.

 

[Buffnik]

I get the love for Vancouver. Amazing city. And Top 40 ARWU is definitely prestigious.

I don’t think for a second that a school with a 3400 seat stadium that would get rolled by a good D2 team is even in the same ballpark as realistic.

 

[SINKRATZ]

Other than feeding the ego of member presidents, is there any benefit to the conference whatsoever in maintaining a strict academic standard?

I'd just assume the academic ratings were ignored.

 

[Buffnik]

Other than feeding the ego of member presidents, is there any benefit to the conference whatsoever in maintaining a strict academic standard?

I'd just assume the academic ratings were ignored.

I said it elsewhere, but a cultural fit of similar institutional goals does strengthen a conference. Culture is important. PAC-12 should focus on universities that emphasize doctoral research.

It does matter.

P.S. BYU scores better than many might think. If they agreed to academic freedom policies that mirrored Notre Dame, I think they would fit in just fine.

 

[SINKRATZ]

I said it elsewhere, but a cultural fit of similar institutional goals does strengthen a conference. Culture is important. PAC-12 should focus on universities that emphasize doctoral research.

It does matter.

Meh. Conferences seem to be 98% about money and athletics, the leftover is culture and shared research, etc.

I'd like to see the Pac add CSU, BYU, UNLV, and Kansas. CU and Utah would get much more natural rivals and travel partners, basketball would be elevated significantly, and VEGAS! I know Oklahoma and Texas are the big money schools, but I feel like we learned how badly that went for us before and don't wish to try it again.

 

[Buffnik]

Meh. Conferences seem to be 98% about money and athletics, the leftover is culture and shared research, etc.

I'd like to see the Pac add CSU, BYU, UNLV, and Kansas. CU and Utah would get much more natural rivals and travel partners, basketball would be elevated significantly, and VEGAS! I know Oklahoma and Texas are the big money schools, but I feel like we learned how badly that went for us before and don't wish to try it again.

We're not far off.

I think that stadium attendance has become a growing issue and that the in-state rivals model of the Pac-10 made a lot fo sense. Or at least have 2 programs that are close enough to be a reasonable drive from each other.

Let's say that BYU is a non-starter because it refuses to agree to full academic freedom. Without that change, it will never fly.

You could add UNLV and make them Utah's paired rival. SLC and LV are very closely tied as cities (Bank of Las Vegas, which financed The Strip, was started by a Mormon from Utah and that's where a lot of the money came from). It's under a 6 hour drive between the 2 cities and a cheap/short flight, so you'd get some road tripping between them. UNLV's a Carnegie R2, but could be moving up to R1 and is definitely research focused and investing a ton in that direction.

Likewise, you could do Texas Tech plus New Mexico with that 5 hour drive between Albuquerque and Lubbock. Also have cheap flights between the two. Both are Carnegie R1.

Last, add CSU for another R1 and the natural rivalry in a state heading quickly toward a population of over 6 million people with some projections having the state topping 7 million by 2030.

I like that this fills the map, maintains rivalries, maintains academic peer considerations, and dips into Texas without going outside the region into the I-35 corridor while also choosing a school with TTU that has a history being in the same conference with UNM, UA, ASU from the 30s thru the 50s and with CU for 2 decades from the 90's to the 2010s.

 

[hawg1]

Scott should be concerned about AZ and ASU to B12.

 

[Buffnik]

Scott should be concerned about AZ and ASU to B12.

I haven't heard anything to suggest any interest on their part. Wilner wrote last week that it was a pretty ridiculous suggestion. Of course, that's what everyone said about Maryland leaving the ACC. Money talks. I'm not sure anyone's offering UA/ASU a 50% revenue bump like the Terrapins were offered, though. In fact, it looks like it would be leaving for the same money.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

I haven't heard anything to suggest any interest on their part. Wilner wrote last week that it was a pretty ridiculous suggestion. Of course, that's what everyone said about Maryland leaving the ACC. Money talks. I'm not sure anyone's offering UA/ASU a 50% revenue bump like the Terrapins were offered, though. In fact, it looks like it would be leaving for the same money.

True, but if revenue is equal, maybe they see an opportunity to jump of a potentially sinking ship, while keeping their rivalry in place.

 

[Buffnik]

True, but if revenue is equal, maybe they see an opportunity to jump of a potentially sinking ship, while keeping their rivalry in place.

Ship is sinking? Do tell.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Ship is sinking? Do tell.

Everything that’s been discussed as naseum on these boards. I get that a lot of things may be overplayed, but between the revenue, game times, exposure, lack of CFP representation, poor bowl showing, and general lacking support from the fan bases, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say the Pac 12 could be in trouble as a prominent football/athletic conference going forward.

 

[Buffnik]

Everything that’s been discussed as naseum on these boards. I get that a lot of things may be overplayed, but between the revenue, game times, exposure, lack of CFP representation, poor bowl showing, and general lacking support from the fan bases, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say the Pac 12 could be in trouble as a prominent football/athletic conference going forward.

I think that it all went from expression of legit concerns and frustration with a horrendous 2017-18 post-season to the realm of hyperbolic chicken little talk.

 

[MtnBuff]

If you are concerned about revenues, and everyone is concerned about revenues, then you don't even consider CSU, Boise or the like and you probably stay miles away from UNLV.

Simple reality is that any schools added need to bring in enough additional viewers to increase the value of the conference media packages by at least what their (equal) share of those revenues is. If each team is receiving just as an example $30 million a year in conference distributions then the new teams would have to add enough value that when the pie is cut into more pieces each team still gets $30 million. Otherwise everyone already in the conference loses.

Also a couple things. One is that PAC12 like it or not has a culture. The existing schools are not going to admit new members strictly on athletic qualification. The academic and research reputations matter as do the cultures of the individual schools. BYU and bunch of others are not getting in

Secondly none of the existing members are getting kicked out, simply not going to happen.

 

[Buffnik]

If you are concerned about revenues, and everyone is concerned about revenues, then you don't even consider CSU, Boise or the like and you probably stay miles away from UNLV.

Simple reality is that any schools added need to bring in enough additional viewers to increase the value of the conference media packages by at least what their (equal) share of those revenues is. If each team is receiving just as an example $30 million a year in conference distributions then the new teams would have to add enough value that when the pie is cut into more pieces each team still gets $30 million. Otherwise everyone already in the conference loses.

That's why I keep saying that I think that expansion to 16 only happens if it allows conferences to do a semi-final playoff round in football. Those 2 games could be worth $50-$100M for the network broadcast rights. I don't know how anyone combo that doesn't include Texas or Notre Dame adds more than $30M per year to what the networks will pay for conference broadcast rights. Maybe Oklahoma moves the needle that much.

 

[MtnBuff]

That's why I keep saying that I think that expansion to 16 only happens if it allows conferences to do a semi-final playoff round in football. Those 2 games could be worth $50-$100M for the network broadcast rights. I don't know how anyone combo that doesn't include Texas or Notre Dame adds more than $30M per year to what the networks will pay for conference broadcast rights. Maybe Oklahoma moves the needle that much.

I think Oklahoma would move that needle that much. They have a strong national appeal (as shown by how often they end up on national TV in prime slots) and they have a strong alumni base and fan interest in much of Texas. The problem is finding a partner for them.

 

[Liver]

a lot in this thread...

take the stripper U and arizona. bfd. they ain't leaving the p12, but let's indulge for a moment. both believe that they can be competitive in the current conference. will they think that they can compete against texasssss and the land thiefs?

next, academics matter. think back to the short "glory" days of snyder's kjuco state teams. that man is/was a witch genius, but the reason they were able to suddenly be competitive has little to do with his genius and everything to do with admitting anyone with a pulse that could help them. it was a competitive advantage.

next, oklahoma has done a lot of work to upgrade its academics and, despite our jokes, it is light-years better positioned than unlv or boise state or sdsu to plug into an expanded pac.

next, the p12 is not "sinking". it may not necessarily be playing under the same criteria as the sec, i am confident that the p12 is quite confident in its own skin. the tv footprint is still huge and the programs are still able to compete. i do not accept that we have to go total sec to survive. that just isn't going to happen. there will be a good tv contract there, regardless of what happens.

i think expansion is going to happen. i think the b12 is going to cease to exist. i think the b10 or the big whatever the **** they want to call themselves and the sec and the p12 are going to split up those programs. i think kjuco state is probably ****ed, along with iowa state and maybe some others.

16 team conferences are coming. there will be about 5 or maybe 6 of them. the teams in the p12 now are fine.

 

[ahoelsken]

a lot in this thread...

take the stripper U and arizona. bfd. they ain't leaving the p12, but let's indulge for a moment. both believe that they can be competitive in the current conference. will they think that they can compete against texasssss and the land thiefs?

next, academics matter. think back to the short "glory" days of snyder's kjuco state teams. that man is/was a witch genius, but the reason they were able to suddenly be competitive has little to do with his genius and everything to do with admitting anyone with a pulse that could help them. it was a competitive advantage.

next, oklahoma has done a lot of work to upgrade its academics and, despite our jokes, it is light-years better positioned than unlv or boise state or sdsu to plug into an expanded pac.

next, the p12 is not "sinking". it may not necessarily be playing under the same criteria as the sec, i am confident that the p12 is quite confident in its own skin. the tv footprint is still huge and the programs are still able to compete. i do not accept that we have to go total sec to survive. that just isn't going to happen. there will be a good tv contract there, regardless of what happens.

i think expansion is going to happen. i think the b12 is going to cease to exist. i think the b10 or the big whatever the **** they want to call themselves and the sec and the p12 are going to split up those programs. i think kjuco state is probably ****ed, along with iowa state and maybe some others.

16 team conferences are coming. there will be about 5 or maybe 6 of them. the teams in the p12 now are fine.

Disagree. If a major conference goes away, its us right now. We're lagging behind the other four leagues in terms of third tier revenue and quality of play-everybody finished with at least 3 losses last year, and we won one bowl game as a league. I don't think we need to expand yet, but I think there are things we can do to improve the league now. One-Larry Scott is a disaster of commissioner. He needs to go. He's the one who saw late night tv on fall saturdays as a "new frontier" or whatever his words were. He's the one who negotiated the contract that had one of the biggest games last year get pre-empted by a truck race, and its now got our games being played on Fox Business in those scenarios..............lol. It was his idea to off by himself and found his own conference network-which is paying its schools as much as some middling SEC programs pay their defensive coordinators. FOX's investment in the Big 10 last year killed us as a league tv wise. Two-using the agreement the MLB has with facebook or the NFL and twitter LY for Thursday Night games last year........those type of platforms are an opportunity. They need to be looked into.

 

[somebody]

Disagree. If a major conference goes away, its us right now. We're lagging behind the other four leagues in terms of third tier revenue and quality of play-everybody finished with at least 3 losses last year, and we won one bowl game as a league. I don't think we need to expand yet, but I think there are things we can do to improve the league now. One-Larry Scott is a disaster of commissioner. He needs to go. He's the one who saw late night tv on fall saturdays as a "new frontier" or whatever his words were. He's the one who negotiated the contract that had one of the biggest games last year get pre-empted by a truck race, and its now got our games being played on Fox Business in those scenarios..............lol. It was his idea to off by himself and found his own conference network-which is paying its schools as much as some middling SEC programs pay their defensive coordinators. FOX's investment in the Big 10 last year killed us as a league tv wise. Two-using the agreement the MLB has with facebook or the NFL and twitter LY for Thursday Night games last year........those type of platforms are an opportunity. They need to be looked into.

Disagree. UT will find a way to kill the B12.

 

[Bufffan68]

I get academic status matters to the decision makers. But the world of NCAA sports has changed, and not for the better IMO.

Texas and CSU make the most sense IMO. After that UNLV and Kansas. BYU would be too big of a cultural jolt...a small, religious school and large, vocal, secular universities is a recipe for disaster.

 

[ScottyBuff]

The other very important variable is the size of the media market. I highly doubt that any candidate without at least an "average" DMA of the current conference is going to move the financial needle enough to be invited. Schools like Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and BYU can't be defined by just their immediate DMA as they stretch into many markets with high ratings...

Rank - Designated Market Area (DMA) - TV Homes - % of U.S. - Schools in market (or large Alumni base)
2 Los Angeles 5,318,630 4.743 USC; UCLA
n/r Mormons in Western U.S. 3,637,000 3.243 BYU
5 Dallas-Ft. Worth 2,648,490 2.362 Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, SMU, and North Texas
7 Houston 2,467,140 2.200 Texas, Texas A&M, Houston, Rice
8 San Francisco-Oak-San Jose 2,451,640 2.186 Stanford, Cal, San Jose State
11 Phoenix (Prescott) 1,919,930 1.712 Arizona State, Northern Arizona
12 Seattle-Tacoma 1,880,750 1.677 Washington
17 Denver 1,589,560 1.417 Colorado, Colorado State, Northern Colorado
20 Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto 1,412,940 1.260 Sacramento State, UC-Davis; large alumni from Stanford, Cal, UCLA, USC in State Capitol
21 St. Louis 1,189,890 1.061 Missouri
22 Portland, OR 1,180,980 1.053 Oregon, Oregon State, Portland State
29 San Diego 1,002,770 0.894 San Diego State, UC-San Diego
30 Salt Lake City 948,840 0.846 Utah, BYU*, Utah State
31 San Antonio 924,480 0.824 Texas, UT-San Antonio, Texas State
33 Kansas City 901,020 0.803 Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri
39 Austin 791,480 0.706 Texas
40 Las Vegas 757,400 0.675 UNLV
41 Oklahoma City 705,840 0.629 Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
46 Albuquerque-Santa Fe 674,930 0.602 New Mexico
54 Fresno-Visalia 574,610 0.512 Fresno State
62 Tulsa 516,540 0.461 Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Tulsa
65 Tucson (Sierra Vista) 433,330 0.386 Arizona
66 Honolulu 419,540 0.374 Hawai'i
67 Wichita-Hutchinson Plus 416,400 0.371 Kansas, Kansas State
68 Des Moines-Ames 416,020 0.371 Iowa, Iowa State
72 Spokane 410,900 0.366 Washington State, Gonzaga
74 Omaha 399,010 0.356 Nebraska
75 Springfield, MO 389,750 0.348 Missouri
86 Waco-Temple-Bryan 346,750 0.309 Baylor
87 Colorado Springs-Pueblo 344,250 0.307 Air Force (trust me don't include CU and CSU here; they get little to no airplay and are not on basic packages for games).
93 El Paso (Las Cruces) 318,260 0.284 UTEP
104 Boise 264,300 0.236 Boise State
105 Reno 263,990 0.235 Nevada
106 Lincoln & Hastings-Krny 263,110 0.235 Nebraska
109 Tyler-Longview(Lfkn&Ncgd) 253,230 0.226 Texas
114 Yakima-Pasco-Rchlnd-Knnwck 239,760 0.214 Washington, Washington State
119 Eugene 231,570 0.206 Oregon
125 Monterey-Salinas 217,560 0.194
126 Bakersfield 212,180 0.189
128 Corpus Christi 198,820 0.177 Texas
131 Amarillo 179,920 0.160 Texas Tech, Texas
132 Chico-Redding 179,370 0.160
135 Columbia-Jefferson City 163,790 0.146 Missouri
139 Topeka 161,010 0.144 Kansas, Kansas State
142 Beaumont-Port Arthur 156,020 0.139 Texas
144 Odessa-Midland 153,830 0.137 Texas Tech, Texas
145 Lubbock 153,370 0.137 Texas Tech, Texas
146 Palm Springs 152,840 0.136
147 Anchorage 149,120 0.133
149 Wichita Falls & Lawton 142,990 0.127 Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech

The Mormon population in the west breaks down like this (these figures are also included in the above DMA figures):
2,000,000 Utah
430,000 Idaho
416,000 Arizona
282,000 Washington
182,000 Nevada
153,000 Oregon
100,000 Colorado
74,000 Hawai'i
3,637,000 Total

The "average" Pac-12 school serves a direct DMA of about 1,383,824 and that is not including main indirect cities like Sacramento and San Diego. So if that is the bar that must be met for any additional school to join then it narrows the list significantly. Understand also that any school that splits a current market must be able to increase ratings enough to offset the lack of growth in TV households, (would CSU increase ratings substantially in Denver DMA to offset the lack of TV household growth for the conference media partners?).

Based on the above, I don't see how Texas Tech even with 3 DMA's (total: 485,000 TV homes) can move the needle enough. That would still be outside the "Top 50" ranking and possibly below Washington State's TV draw currently unless the Red Raiders can prove they can draw enough ratings in DFW to get basic subscription access there (I doubt it).

So from the TV Rankings/media standpoint the best candidates would be:
Texas
Oklahoma
BYU
Missouri
Kansas or Kansas State (but not both)
Sacramento State or UC-Davis
San Diego State or UC-San Diego
TCU (still debate about whether they would deliver enough ratings in the DFW DMA to be viable alone).
Houston (same argument but in Houston DMA).

Below conference average (watch-list for future growth):
UNLV
New Mexico
Fresno State

Not even close:
Hawai'i
Baylor
Air Force
UTEP
Boise State
Nevada

Combine the Academics, Athletics, and the "Access" and you would end up with the finalists of:
Texas - Big 12
Oklahoma - Big 12
Nebraska - Big Ten
Missouri - SEC with no grant-in-rights issues
Kansas - Big 12

Houston is "borderline" on all three main criteria, in my opinion, so there would need to be some deeper research into their viability as a candidate. They have made improvements to facilities, on-field performance, attendance, and in TV ratings but they aren't an "established" power yet to be considered a "slam dunk" candidate.

I would say that the Big Ten is more likely to grab Kansas and Missouri than the Pac-12 would be, and I would venture to say that those schools would feel the same. Nebraska could only be pried away from the Big Ten if the Pac-12 could land Oklahoma and Texas, in my opinion, otherwise their financial advantage in the Big Ten could not be offset with the historical rivalry/recruiting gains for them. If we could lure Kansas it would be also in package with OU/UT but not alone.

So again, there is no viable expansion candidates for the Pac-12 to improve their financial situation, competitive situation, and maintain their academic situation outside of the Longhorns and Sooners.

 

[ScottyBuff]

Based on Academics and TV Markets you could make a better argument for the conference to drop Washington State and Oregon State and NOT see any appreciable drop in the overall conference media rights package; thus increasing every schools annual payout by 20%. Now that 12 schools are not needed to host a CCG (thanks to the Big 12) the conference would still retain that annual revenue stream as well.

This would take the average distribution from $30 million per school to $37 million; getting closer to the SEC's $41m and passing the Big 12's $34m to rank third.

If they weren't members of the conference already, how many on here would be clamoring to add Oregon State and Washington State?
To me, they would look no different than CSU, New Mexico, and Hawai'i look right now as potential candidates.

The conference members are basically paying a "history tax" of 20% to keep them in the conference.

 

[DrunkRalphie]

I still like the University of British Columbia. not AAU members (only two Canadien schools are and they're both eastern). #36 world wide on that Shanghai rating. The Carnegie ranking you reference is only US schools, but the Thunderbirds are 29th in the world in the HEEACT ranking (research based on academic papers -- sure there are others, i just grabbed that off wiki).

moving from Canadian football to American can't be a much bigger leap than bringing up the FCS schools you mentioned to D1.

the travel would be better (shorter, cheaper flight as Vancouver is a hub), or comparable, than all the other schools you mentioned for most of the existing Pac schools (OK, New Mexico would be quite a bit better for Colorado, but still -- look at a map of the current Pac and tell me Vancouver won't work).

the Pac clearly has an affinity for international exposure.

My sister went to UBC. Let me assure you they are no where near competing with DIII football let alone the Pac 12.

 

[Buffnik]

I was just looking at this.

One note regarding Nevada is that there is no major college sports program in the Sacramento area and Reno puts its population in the middle of Pac-12 country if we added them. Also, I was reading an article this morning that with Tesla's move to Reno and all the other tech industry moving there (only 4% of its economy is now gambling), people are projecting a similar boom to what happened in Austin as it grew from a 250k metro - Reno's current size - to 900k. I'm not saying they're a "take" right now, but there is a ton of potential there and they're worth keeping an eye on.

I guess my point is that I think these numbers start looking quite different by 2030 for where the population is in the US. It's moving west and western universities are expanding at record pace. It seems to me that the Pac-12 shouldn't be looking east and going against that trend. Instead, standing pat for now while strengthening our foundations while looking to add PTZ-MTZ institutions as they rise up and become fits. I believe we're going to see some institutions in the coming decade with UCF type growth in the western US and we want to have room for those schools in our conference.

 

[Dark Bohner]

I get academic status matters to the decision makers. But the world of NCAA sports has changed, and not for the better IMO.

Texas and CSU make the most sense IMO. After that UNLV and Kansas. BYU would be too big of a cultural jolt...a small, religious school and large, vocal, secular universities is a recipe for disaster.

You would put CSU in over Oklahoma or Houston? Put down the booze!

 

[SuperiorBuff]

**** expansion and anyone who wants it.

 

[ahoelsken]

Disagree. UT will find a way to kill the B12.

Nobody has put them in a corner. Our revenue deficit with the other power 5 leagues has to be made up. The schedules (no Friday road games after Saturday road games is a start-but I'd rather see byes before ANY weeknight game) should help. We get more playoff teams and a champion, we're more attractive when our rights come up. In the mean time, coming up with a deal that puts Pac 12 network games on twitter, facebook, or some platform like that (you gotta give your alums or fans of your programs a chance to watch games without going to a bar to do so) would go a long way.