Pac-12 expansion is now inevitable

[Buffnik]

Wouldn't it be too late? They should've got to it like 10 years ago if they wanted in. They would be a nice fit academically, though. Probably a preferred alternative to SDSU.

SD is interesting because San Diego County alone is 3.2 million people. The entire state of Idaho is 1.6 million people. That said, California in general gives many less ****s about supporting sports teams than elsewhere, so idk if the larger population really matters.

Also worth mentioning, with the Chargers moving to LA, if there was a P12/16 team in SD, they'd be the main sports attraction in that area.

Maybe. Joining Big West in everything but football next year, which is staying DII. But, man, that school has everything the Pac would look for except for the athletics (which is kind of a big deal for an athletics conference ). With an endowment of almost $2B and very well-heeled alums, UCSD could make it happen quickly if it wanted to, though.

 

[Jens1893]

And... Here we go again.

I could kill Larry Scott right about now.

Scott is only doing what has to be done. If the other conferences had no ambition to go to 16, this wouldn't be happening.

 

[Burrito]

Clear brown gravy?

 

[J.R. Ewing]

Clear brown gravy?

Some people add a little flour to their brown gravy that makes it more of a brown/white hybrid gravy.

 

[Burrito]

Some people add a little flour to their brown gravy that makes it more of a brown/white hybrid gravy.

Clear brown/white gravy?

 

[Dark Bohner]

So relax and enjoy it?

 

[Buffnik]

Scott is only doing what has to be done. If the other conferences had no ambition to go to 16, this wouldn't be happening.

Exactly. ACC is ready to expand as soon as Notre Dame decides it wants to pull the trigger for football, for example. All it takes is one move and the dominoes will start to fall.

One thing that puts the Pac-12 in an advantageous position vs the ACC, B1G and SEC is that we've got 4 openings while they've all each got 2. Pac-12 could put together a very solid "pod" of former Big 12 schools together. No one else can offer that.

 

[gobuffs58]

if i had to pick 4 schools it would be texas houston ok and ok lite

 

[sackman]

Smfh

 

[Jens1893]

Exactly. ACC is ready to expand as soon as Notre Dame decides it wants to pull the trigger for football, for example. All it takes is one move and the dominoes will start to fall.

One thing that puts the Pac-12 in an advantageous position vs the ACC, B1G and SEC is that we've got 4 openings while they've all each got 2. Pac-12 could put together a very solid "pod" of former Big 12 schools together. No one else can offer that.

I've said it before, but my greatest concern here is that the P12 is the only conference that has a natural border to the West and can only go East. All the other conferences have more options than we do to expand their footprint plus they operate in far more desirable and populated time zones.

 

[Jens1893]

Smfh

We're merely reading the tea leaves, not saying what we want to happen.

 

[sackman]

We're merely reading the tea leaves, not saying what we want to happen.

Oh, I have no doubt there are several posters who have convinced themselves adding UT is actually a desirable outcome.

 

[leftybuff]

Accretive. ..it needed to be said.

 

[Dark Bohner]

Honestly, this is a dead horse. Wish it would either happen or die down.

 

[J.R. Ewing]

Oh, I have no doubt there are several posters who have convinced themselves adding UT is actually a desirable outcome.

Having the other conferences go to 16 and snap up the desirable parts of the big12 while we sit at 12 would be disastrous for the conference.

 

[sackman]

Accretive. ..it needed to be said.

Nobody cares. The reality is that the schools that would add value aren't schools we want in the conference. The outshoot is that we have people convincing themselves that UT and OU aren't what hey are - conference killing leeches. One shoots the conference in the head (UT), while the other stabs it in the back (OU). History has shown this. Yet we STILL have people trying to justify having one or both in the PAC 12.

Unreal. Are we in some kind of suicide pact or something?

 

[sackman]

Having the other conferences go to 16 and snap up the desirable parts of the big12 while we sit at 12 would be disastrous for the conference.

I keep hearing this, but here's absolutely no proof of it. It's pure speculation.

 

[Buffs35]

You are all wrong! We don't need to expand east, we need to expand in Asia and Australia.
Sincerely,
Larry Scott

 

[leftybuff]

Nobody cares. The reality is that the schools that would add value aren't schools we want in the conference. The outshoot is that we have people convincing themselves that UT and OU aren't what hey are - conference killing leeches. One shoots the conference in the head (UT), while the other stabs it in the back (OU). History has shown this. Yet we STILL have people trying to justify having one or both in the PAC 12.

Unreal. Are we in some kind of suicide pact or something?

I am with on UT. I want CU to be in a conference with them as much as I want a chronic case of jock itch...

 

[Buffnik]

If the Pac-12 can get OU and/or UT to join, it's going to happen whether people like it or not. And they're so valuable that they can largely dictate to the Pac-12 who will be coming with them.

P.S. I'm not just talking revenue here. I'm also talking about gaining a dominant recruiting position for the conference in both CA and TX, which puts the competitive strength #1 in the nation and growing as the population continues to shift into the future.

 

[Duff Man]

I keep hearing this, but here's absolutely no proof of it. It's pure speculation.

The money for the new Big 10 TV contract is what prompted me to post this thread. The gap between other conferences and the Pac-12 in TV revenue is going to widen, especially if other conferences grab attractive schools to get to 16. And if the Pac-12 is the only power conference left at 12, it absolutely not only has an effect on revenue but the postseason in many of the major sports. The Pac-12 will (rightfully) get less bids in postseason tourneys and will continue to struggle to gain any sort of presence on the east coast. Then you factor in things like facilities and coaches pay which has a direct conflict with revenue and yeah, it is not a rosy outlook. I know you will argue all of this away as "pure speculation," but it is pretty logical to see, if you so choose.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Having the other conferences go to 16 and snap up the desirable parts of the big12 while we sit at 12 would be disastrous for the conference.

The thing nobody is really talking about is the chance that a drastic shift in the college football landscape could easily see some of the desired Pac 12 teams leave and move into the more profitable "conferences" that would welcome them with open arms. I'm talking about USC, UCLA, UW, maybe Oregon and maybe CU (??). If the Pac 12 doesn't feel like expanding, why wouldn't the LA teams leave to join the relevant situation in college football? They aren't just going to sit back and watch the Pac 12 fade into obscurity as a football conference.

 

[J.R. Ewing]

The thing nobody is really talking about is the chance that a drastic shift in the college football landscape could easily see some of the desired Pac 12 teams leave and move into the more profitable "conferences" that would welcome them with open arms. I'm talking about USC, UCLA, UW, maybe Oregon and maybe CU (??). If the Pac 12 doesn't feel like expanding, why wouldn't the LA teams leave to join the relevant situation in college football? They aren't just going to sit back and watch the Pac 12 fade into obscurity as a football conference.

I don't think their Presidents would do that unless the situation drastically deteriorated. Keep in mind the directions the Presidents have given Larry Scott.

 

[Alfred91]

I've said it before, but my greatest concern here is that the P12 is the only conference that has a natural border to the West and can only go East. All the other conferences have more options than we do to expand their footprint plus they operate in far more desirable and populated time zones.

Pretty much everyone except the Big 12 has a natural border to the east.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

I don't think their Presidents would do that unless the situation drastically deteriorated. Keep in mind the directions the Presidents have given Larry Scott.

But if the Presidents saw the SEC, BIG and ACC each go to 16 (that's only 2 more for each conference) and the Pac stay at 12, what would happen then?

 

[leftybuff]

But if the Presidents saw the SEC, BIG and ACC each go to 16 (that's only 2 more for each conference) and the Pac stay at 12, what would happen then?

...the apocalypse.

 

[hokiehead]

Exactly. ACC is ready to expand as soon as Notre Dame decides it wants to pull the trigger for football, for example. All it takes is one move and the dominoes will start to fall.

One thing that puts the Pac-12 in an advantageous position vs the ACC, B1G and SEC is that we've got 4 openings while they've all each got 2. Pac-12 could put together a very solid "pod" of former Big 12 schools together. No one else can offer that.

this "number of open slots" assumes there's something special about the number 16 w/r/t conference size. I'm not convinced that's the case. Fan opinion seems to shaped more by the properties of the number (even, perfect square, splits nice into two divisions or four conferences) than by size of available market and geographic distribution. Symmetry of conference size has never been a factor in expansion history, and it's not obvious why it would become a major driver at this point.

Right. The Pac-12 can just stay at 12 while every other conference expands to 16.
No effect on money, exposure, facilities, coaches pay, CFB playoff bids, MBB/WBB tourney bids, VB tourney bids, etc. Nope, just stay at twelve and everything is somehow going to be great.
Huh?

I respect your opinion on football matters, but your short posts tend to leave out the logical steps I need to follow your though process to conclusion. This comment I'm struggling with in particular:

• start with money. if the Pac stays at the current 12 members and other conferences expand, do you believe that REVENUE per SCHOOL will decrease relative to the rest of the P5?
  • if so, why?
  • what expansion options do you believe are open to the Pac 12 that would increase REVENUE per SCHOOL relative to the rest of the P5?
• I assume that in your reasoning that facilities and coaches pay follows directly from the revenue, but if there's a secondary effect that I'm not seeing, please spell it out.
• What expansion options do you believe are open to the Pac 12 that would increase playoff bid frequency, MBB/WBB tourney bids, VB bids, etc.. relative to the rest of the P5? it occurs to me that this is only a factor if the additions increase the bids per school in the conference -- yes?

USC and Oregon are in the worst time slot in the country. I mention the CTZ because I believe it's the only way the Pac 12 (16) is going to get the national eyeballs on a consistent basis. I absolutely believe that an OU/USC game played in Norman at 6pm CT is far better than USC/New Mexico being played at 8pm CT. If teams from the CTZ are involved, I think the networks will have to adjust the scheduling to suite those fan bases.

OK, you're admitting that this only works if the networks play ball, but I don't think there's good reason to believe that reality is going to play out like some think. Either the CTZ schools get screwed or the PTZ schools do. There's a lot of competition for the 7PM CT slot and no reason to believe that in a future state that the majority of the Pac-16 Central Time Zone games would get them. Look at the distribution of kickoff times from this last year for the three CTZ schools I see mentioned most often as Pac expansion possibilities.

Of 33 games played this year by Texas, OU and OSU, only two, or 6%, in the coveted 7PM CT timeslot. Thirteen (41%) at the 11AM CT timeslot -- that would be 9AM for ten of the twelve current members for the majority of the season. Is this what we really want? more relevant, is that what the PTZ & Arizona conference members want?

I haven't thought it through very far, but does anyone else think divisions should be done away with?

yes

 

[FlaBuff]

Clear brown gravy?

 

[J.R. Ewing]

Everyone else is talking football and me, burrito, and FL are talking gravy. Leave it to the fat guys...

 

[Duff Man]

this "number of open slots" assumes there's something special about the number 16 w/r/t conference size. I'm not convinced that's the case. Fan opinion seems to shaped more by the properties of the number (even, perfect square, splits nice into two divisions or four conferences) than by size of available market and geographic distribution. Symmetry of conference size has never been a factor in expansion history, and it's not obvious why it would become a major driver at this point.


I respect your opinion on football matters, but your short posts tend to leave out the logical steps I need to follow your though process to conclusion. This comment I'm struggling with in particular:

• start with money. if the Pac stays at the current 12 members and other conferences expand, do you believe that REVENUE per SCHOOL will decrease relative to the rest of the P5?
  • if so, why?
  • what expansion options do you believe are open to the Pac 12 that would increase REVENUE per SCHOOL relative to the rest of the P5?
• I assume that in your reasoning that facilities and coaches pay follows directly from the revenue, but if there's a secondary effect that I'm not seeing, please spell it out.
• What expansion options do you believe are open to the Pac 12 that would increase playoff bid frequency, MBB/WBB tourney bids, VB bids, etc.. relative to the rest of the P5? it occurs to me that this is only a factor if the additions increase the bids per school in the conference -- yes?

Yes. Because the other conferences will snatch up desirable schools from the Big 12. The schools have been mentioned ad nauseam in the this. Texas and/or Oklahoma are a must as a starting point.

Yes.

If other every P5 conference picks up desirable schools from the Big 12, they will be stronger leagues and therefore get more bids.