OUBuff
American
Of course I am assuming that the Red River Shoot out would continue and OU would schedule other Texas teams in OOC. they would never leave the footprint... only gain another one.
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Pac-12 expansion is now inevitable
- Thread starter Duff Man
- Start date
I think that everyone is making the same flawed assumption that the revenue model will be the same in 7 years. I'm not convinced that with the decline in football viewers, the demise of ESPN, the increasing use of DVR's, live streaming, and rapidly changing demographics, that there will be the sort of dollars available to necessitate or even incentivize a 16 team PAC 12.
I'm not sure that the networks have viewed those huge contracts with the conferences as profitable. When they renegotiate there might be huge changes to the entire business.
I'm just saying that 7 years is an eternity in this business climate and nobody knows what is in store when it comes to TV revenue.
It will be interesting to see which P5 conference negotiates their deal first and how that shakes out, and if the landscape changes after that.
I'm not sure that the networks have viewed those huge contracts with the conferences as profitable. When they renegotiate there might be huge changes to the entire business.
I'm just saying that 7 years is an eternity in this business climate and nobody knows what is in store when it comes to TV revenue.
It will be interesting to see which P5 conference negotiates their deal first and how that shakes out, and if the landscape changes after that.
I think this scenario is conceivable, if not probable. Stanford and Cal, maybe USC, Colorado and Washington too, drop out of big time athletics, break free and form some sort of West Coast Ivy, or as you suggest, try to merge with the current (would that exclude the public schools? I genuinely have no idea). that would leave the rest with a need to find a home -- which is the worst case outcome for Colorado and others.
somebody
Well-Known Member
Do you really believe that schools like USC will turn away from tens of millions of dollars of profit and the "prestige" (fame, at least) of athletics? Darth was joking, you know.
no, I don't believe it would happen. I said it was conceivable and improbable.
and I wasn't talking to Darth, I was talking to Jens and Skidmark, both in the context of "highly improbably but technically possible scenarios". I don't think any of us were joking, but I've been called autistic before -- could've missed the humor.
This. TV is paying bookoo bucks to buy that content and put it where it bests serves them.
The only thing that I kind of think changes that idea is that Larry somehow gets the P12N more wider distribution by 2024 and then more of the games are on the actual P12N to compete against east coast teams. Maybe an exclusive deal with NBC would achieve the same. That of course still assumes that those people on the east coast will turn off their SEC, B1G or ACC game to watch a Pac12 team. Which is not a given at all.
It'll be interesting what the TV landscape looks like in 2024. Big money TV has lost its monopoly to saturation and a lot of free stuff off the net. Or cheaper things like sling and vue. Rumor has it that Fox nixed the BigXII expansion because they didnt want to shell out millions for 2 to 4 more schools. That says something about the ROI the networks are proceeding on.
The LHN contract signed in 2010 lasts until 2030. That assumes that ESPN can last that long on such a money loser.
Here's what I'd like to see:
PAC 12, ACC, Big 12 and MWC enter into a joint agreement for a re-branded PAC 12 Network to televise tier three games for all four conferences. Each conference would have its own time slot. ACC at Noon Eastern time, B12 at 2:30 Central, PAC 12 at 4:00 PM Pacific, and MWC at 7:30 Pacific. This would ensure DTV signing on, and would increase revenues for all schools involved. It would get Texas eyeballs without Texas interference with the PAC 12. The LHN can do whatever it wants, but I'm pretty sure the rest of the conference would like a set-up like this.
The network could work something similar for hoops, although the increased number of games would likely mean that some games remain untelevised. No expansion necessary.
PAC 12, ACC, Big 12 and MWC enter into a joint agreement for a re-branded PAC 12 Network to televise tier three games for all four conferences. Each conference would have its own time slot. ACC at Noon Eastern time, B12 at 2:30 Central, PAC 12 at 4:00 PM Pacific, and MWC at 7:30 Pacific. This would ensure DTV signing on, and would increase revenues for all schools involved. It would get Texas eyeballs without Texas interference with the PAC 12. The LHN can do whatever it wants, but I'm pretty sure the rest of the conference would like a set-up like this.
The network could work something similar for hoops, although the increased number of games would likely mean that some games remain untelevised. No expansion necessary.
Funny thing about the contract is their is no out for ESPN. If they pull the plug on the Network, they still owe the full amount.
don't see that happening... the PAC 12 is a brand and mixing the likes of Baylor, Wyoming and Miami of FL onto their network would be the last thing on their minds
Bookoo? It's beaucoup.
GoBuffs08
Well-Known Member
This is all very correct. ESPN lost 600,000 subscribers last month with cord cutting. Here is an article talking about the need for Disney to dump ESPN. ESPN losses have reduced Disney's value by $25 billion.
http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/RBC-Disney-should-get-rid-of-ESPN-DIS-1001574595
Any expansion talk at this point is just silly.
Re-brand the network. Keep the ownership the same.
really? The first thing I thought of when I saw the 2010-2030 was that there must be revenue standards tied to cancelling..... where can you read that contract?
EDIT: I see... Texas got a large up front payment.. thus the losses.... however, ESPN has to make money before Texas gets profit sharing... Texas does get fees every year though...
Randy.Watson
Well-Known Member
Cahall notes that the enterprise value for Disney has sunk to $176 billion from $210 billion in June 2015. Most of this devaluation, according to the analyst, is due to the sinking fortunes of ESPN. Cahall estimates that while Disney's EBITDA has been growing at a 12% annual rate, ESPN's is actually declining by about 3% annually.
Jebus. I knew it was bad. But analysts writing that kind of confirms it.
I wonder if they separate ABC from ESPN and then just sell ESPN. Or do they sell them both with ABC being the more enticing piece to make a sale go.
Money is what makes these expansions go. No money, no expansion.
The Ivy League used to be the best football conference in the country.
The Ivy last won a heisman in 1951 (Princeton).
The last time an Ivy League school was ranked was week 9 in 1972 when Yale was ranked #20.
The Ivy League only moved down to D1-AA (now FCS) in 1982. And they actually tried to avoid moving down (the NCAA voted them out of D1 - a move they attempted to counter by approaching Army, Navy and Northwestern as potential additional schools).
My point is that huge changes can happen quickly - the Ivy League went from having ranked teams to getting voted out of Division 1 in less than a decade.
That was 40 years ago - do things happen slower or faster today?
The Ivy last won a heisman in 1951 (Princeton).
The last time an Ivy League school was ranked was week 9 in 1972 when Yale was ranked #20.
The Ivy League only moved down to D1-AA (now FCS) in 1982. And they actually tried to avoid moving down (the NCAA voted them out of D1 - a move they attempted to counter by approaching Army, Navy and Northwestern as potential additional schools).
My point is that huge changes can happen quickly - the Ivy League went from having ranked teams to getting voted out of Division 1 in less than a decade.
That was 40 years ago - do things happen slower or faster today?
bigskybuff
Well-Known Member
8Jah
Well-Known Member
Maybe. Joining Big West in everything but football next year, which is staying DII. But, man, that school has everything the Pac would look for except for the athletics (which is kind of a big deal for an athletics conference). With an endowment of almost $2B and very well-heeled alums, UCSD could make it happen quickly if it wanted to, though.
I 1000% agree
SuperiorBuff
Well-Known Member
**** you
I think it'd be fun to tell ****bailer we were considering them, let them put a proposal together, then hold a press conference and not select them. How about Scott putting all the school hats in front of him then pick the selected school one at a time? When he gets to the last selection, pick up the ****bailer hat, look at it, shrug and throw it in a trash can.
FlatironsBuff
Well-Known Member
nice
SuperiorBuff
Well-Known Member
Appropriate
Ugh..its going to get ugly for folks not in the SEC or B1G. Places like Vandy and Miss St are going to be able to outspend just about every school not in those conferences outside of a couple of blue bloods.
