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Pac-12 expansion is now inevitable

Buffnik said:
We really don't own Idaho and New Mexico, though. I'm not sure that the PACN is even on all the cable systems in Boise and Albuquerque.
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I would agree. Would it move the needle TV viewer wise - which I assume you agree is a significant player - to add New Mexico or Idaho?

My point is more around we own the west where it matters. The only one that could possibly be a point of conversation would be Vegas.
 
Highlander said:
I would agree. Would it move the needle TV viewer wise - which I assume you agree is a significant player - to add New Mexico or Idaho?

My point is more around we own the west where it matters. The only one that could possibly be a point of conversation would be Vegas.
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I'm strongly on board with UNLV. None of these increases the footprint significantly, but we would own the west. In fact, if we took SDSU, UNLV, Boise State and New Mexico, we'd absolutely cripple the MWC. Not only are those the major markets and nationally known schools for football and/or basketball, but pretty much all their bowl tie-ins are in those stadiums.
 
Buffnik said:
I'm strongly on board with UNLV. None of these increases the footprint significantly, but we would own the west. In fact, if we took SDSU, UNLV, Boise State and New Mexico, we'd absolutely cripple the MWC. Not only are those the major markets and nationally known schools for football and/or basketball, but pretty much all their bowl tie-ins are in those stadiums.
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But would that move the needle even slightly for the Pac-16?
 
Buffnik said:
I'm strongly on board with UNLV. None of these increases the footprint significantly, but we would own the west. In fact, if we took SDSU, UNLV, Boise State and New Mexico, we'd absolutely cripple the MWC. Not only are those the major markets and nationally known schools for football and/or basketball, but pretty much all their bowl tie-ins are in those stadiums.
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As you state your point, I agree, but how does that increase TV revenue? I just don't see it today.

I have seen you extrapolate on this point when you project 20-40 years from now - I wouldn't disagree. TV contracts are not made on 20-40 year population growths though, they are made on 3 to 5 year outcomes.
 
TSchekler said:
But would that move the needle even slightly for the Pac-16?
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I don't know. At a certain point, I guess where I land is that I'd rather be true to our DNA, absolutely own that, and trust to the fact that we're in the area of the country that's growing like no other. So if we play the long game, it's where we would want to be as a conference. Heck, if we look back at 1950, St. Louis was the 2nd largest city west of the Mississippi and Kansas City was bigger than Dallas. https://www.biggestuscities.com/1950 Would we get an instant return on investment with Boise State or UNLV? No, but we're also talking about two of the fastest growing areas in the country. Probably should start there with expansion. Below is the 2016 US Census map on population change by state (New Mexico lags badly, but it is positioned to explode from overflow from its border states at some point):
586d0aecee14b651008b66a8-1200
 
Buffnik said:
I'm strongly on board with UNLV. None of these increases the footprint significantly, but we would own the west. In fact, if we took SDSU, UNLV, Boise State and New Mexico, we'd absolutely cripple the MWC. Not only are those the major markets and nationally known schools for football and/or basketball, but pretty much all their bowl tie-ins are in those stadiums.
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100% on board. Best road game locations in the country. Sand and surf, gambling, skiing, wine country, craft beer meccas. Sign me up!
We aren't on real TV anyway, so why stress about moving the needle immediately. The word is cutting the chord. LS already f'ed up big time, we shouldn't chase something that isn't going to happen. No one is going to overpay for CFB broadcast rights - look at what is happening to ESPN. Better to think long-term. Adding UNLV and SDSU would add, essentially, two more California schools.
 
Buffs35 said:
100% on board. Best road game locations in the country. Sand and surf, gambling, skiing, wine country, craft beer meccas. Sign me up!
We aren't on real TV anyway, so why stress about moving the needle immediately. The word is cutting the chord. LS already f'ed up big time, we shouldn't chase something that isn't going to happen. No one is going to overpay for CFB broadcast rights - look at what is happening to ESPN. Better to think long-term. Adding UNLV and SDSU would add, essentially, two more California schools.
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The key would be a long period (10 years?) of reduced revenue distributions to those schools vs the rest of the Pac. Probably a step approach where the percentages increase over time as long as they are hitting milestones on academic improvements and facility enhancements.

Edit: and the NCAA would need to approve a semi-final round in conference football playoffs for leagues that have 16 teams. Those two extra games would be a financial windfall.
 
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I am actually curious to see how the ESPN TV deals with BIG and SEC shake out in the future, with ESPN losing massive amounts of subscribers each month/year.
 
Those ESPN struggles could slow the consolidation of the conferences.
 
Buffnik said:
We really don't own Idaho and New Mexico, though. I'm not sure that the PACN is even on all the cable systems in Boise and Albuquerque.
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True. Once we own Idaho and New Mexico we will push the SEC aside and be The dominant national program.
 
MiamiBuffs said:
True. Once we own Idaho and New Mexico we will push the SEC aside and be The dominant national program.
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:ROFLMAO:

Definitely smaller states. Would not move the needle much in the short-term other than adding game volume. Though I do think there's national interest in Boise State for football and, to a lesser extent, New Mexico in hoops (especially since they play in maybe the best college arena in the country).
 
TSchekler said:
I am actually curious to see how the ESPN TV deals with BIG and SEC shake out in the future, with ESPN losing massive amounts of subscribers each month/year.
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It makes the conference networks imperative for exposure going forward.
 
Duff Man said:
It makes the conference networks imperative for exposure going forward.
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On the long play, it may end up being a very good thing that we own 100% instead of 51% once all this reshuffling of how people get their content shakes out.
 
Duff Man said:
It makes the conference networks imperative for exposure going forward.
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But how would this affect Texas and the LHN? Their deal with ESPN is what creates the "deal breaker" for them in conference realignment. With ESPN bleeding $$ (as is the LHN itself), how long until that's a non-factor and they are forced to just dump it and fall in line with the other conference networks?
 
TSchekler said:
But how would this affect Texas and the LHN? Their deal with ESPN is what creates the "deal breaker" for them in conference realignment. With ESPN bleeding $$ (as is the LHN itself), how long until that's a non-factor and they are forced to just dump it and fall in line with the other conference networks?
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You know what would be funny? If the Pac-12 purchased LHN and gained rights to UT broadcasts without having to add UT as a member. :ROFLMAO:
 
Buffnik said:
You know what would be funny? If the Pac-12 purchased LHN and gained rights to UT broadcasts without having to add UT as a member. :ROFLMAO:
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I don't know the exact financials, but if you Google Longhorn Network Contract, it's article after article over the past year or two about how badly it and ESPN are bleeding money. I just feel like this could give the P12 the leverage over UT to give them an invite with equal share of the pie.
 
Buffnik said:
:ROFLMAO:

Definitely smaller states. Would not move the needle much in the short-term other than adding game volume. Though I do think there's national interest in Boise State for football and, to a lesser extent, New Mexico in hoops (especially since they play in maybe the best college arena in the country).
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tall claim. I look forward to validating it in two years.
 
TSchekler said:
I don't know the exact financials, but if you Google Longhorn Network Contract, it's article after article over the past year or two about how badly it and ESPN are bleeding money. I just feel like this could give the P12 the leverage over UT to give them an invite with equal share of the pie.
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Read this.
Then I dare you to make your post over in that thread and let us know how that goes.
 
TSchekler said:
Can you summarize that 1300 page thread spanning 5 years? I don't know
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Sure. In a word, Hubris.

TLDR version

Texas fans hold themselves above all others. They seek world domination, and would only consider P12 membership as a bargaining chip to get a better deal from the SEC or B1G.

While a few displaced UT left coasters make a case for p12 membership, the majority sees the P12 as a stepchild with bad TV spots and low revenue compared to other conferences more worthy of UT's stature.

Better yet is a desire to continue reigning over the B12.

Nearly every possible idea relating to UT alignment is discussed ad nauseum. Visitors from wannabe B12 teams and conferences wooing Texas make guest appearances to kiss the UT ring.
 
Clean Undies said:
Sure. In a word, Hubris.

TLDR version

Texas fans hold themselves above all others. They seek world domination, and would only consider P12 membership as a bargaining chip to get a better deal from the SEC or B1G.

While a few displaced UT left coasters make a case for p12 membership, the majority sees the P12 as a stepchild with bad TV spots and low revenue compared to other conferences more worthy of UT's stature.

Better yet is a desire to continue reigning over the B12.

Nearly every possible idea relating to UT alignment is discussed ad nauseum. Visitors from wannabe B12 teams and conferences wooing Texas make guest appearances to kiss the UT ring.
Click to expand...
Do they at all acknowledge the LHN and ESPN failing?
 
TSchekler said:
Do they at all acknowledge the LHN and ESPN failing?
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Some do. One view is that the LHN was not designed to be successful, but used as an ESPN bribe to keep the longhorns in the Big12.

Many are Scrooge McDucks, happy for the millions, even if the LHN is underwater. It's a recruiting tool that sets the school apart. No point complaining if the checks still cash.
 
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