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Playoffs are really not that out of reach...

Jeric said:
That doesn't answer why you said you weren't sure whether Michigan would get in over Wisconsin.
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Because their losses to ranked teams and wins are closer....if Wisconsin beats Penn State. Michigan has a better win and Wisconsin has a better loss by a few spots.... it's a closer call than PSU..... I would give the spot to Michigan as head to head as the final factor.... I see Wisconsin and CU as identical..... with Michigan having that extra push by beating us both....
 
Liver said:
your honor, i would like to open a line of questioning on mr. philby's possible bias, as i believe it may be impacting his opinion in this case.

q: mr. philby, isn't it true that your wife and the mother of your legitimate children attended michigan?
a: yes, that's true, but i am still unbiased.
q: mr. philby, isn't it also true that you have attended michigan football games as a michigan fan?
a: yes, but what do you mean by fan. i attended a few game.
q: mr. philby, if you had to choose between a pissed off mrs. philby and publicly expressing the opinion that CU should get in ahead of michigan, isn't it also true you would choose to assuage mrs. philby?
a: yes, but...
q: mr. philby, your sister says hello and thinks you'd have a clearer head if you did more drugs. do you think she might be right?
a: of course not! i am totally objective on this matter.

no further questions, your honor. this witness is excused.
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Very creative..... agree with all except attending Michigan as a fan..... def more drugs!!
 
PhillyBuff said:
It's not that important....

For the simple equation that A beats B, B beats C, C beats A.

Penn State lost to an unranked team. You can't just use head to head..... it can only be used in the slimmest of circumstances. If you want to use head to head, then Michigan goes over PSU.....

PSU has the worst loss out of all of the teams we are talking about.

Not only has Michigan beaten PSU, Colorado, and Wisconsin, their losses are to the #22 and #2 teams.....

Michigan has the toughest schedule.....
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Penn State has the worst loss? They lost to an 8-4 Pitt team that beat Clemson. Michigan lost to an 8-4 Iowa team that lost to Penn State by 27.

I'm not real high on Penn State, but if they beat #6 Wisconsin in the championship game, there's no chance Michigan goes to the playoff ahead of them. No chance.
 
SINKRATZ said:
Penn State has the worst loss? They lost to an 8-4 Pitt team that beat Clemson. Michigan lost to an 8-4 Iowa team that lost to Penn State by 27.

I'm not real high on Penn State, but if they beat #6 Wisconsin in the championship game, there's no chance Michigan goes to the playoff ahead of them. No chance.
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Pitt not ranked and Iowa is.... I am valuing the big 10 much higher than the ACC..... my opinion is that the Pitt loss is a lot worse than the Iowa loss. Then we get into injuries? Do we even consider them? I don't even want to go there..... that brings in too much hypothetical for a process that already has enough flaws.

The polls partially agree with me and have ranked Michigan ahead of Wisconsin in one poll....

I can't be that crazy.
 
This CFP and Rose Bowl talk is making my head spin.

Between entitled Michigan and USC fans (who we both unfortunately lost to) I've lost all faith in peoples ability to use logic. If you want to go to the playoff, don't lose to far lesser conference foes and lose head-to-head against your rival. Harbaugh himself called The Game a playoff game, hopefully the committee saw it that way too.

With 4 spots and a bunch of 2-loss teams, I don't see how you can take two teams from one conference, especially when one of the teams has very recently beat the other. I can see USC's gripe with the Rose Bowl given how they've played lately, but you lost two conference games and CU lost one, doesn't get much more subjective than that.
 
PhillyBuff said:
For those of you that think we have a shot....

Just write down the ranked wins and losses( what the team that beat them is ranked) for Colorado, PSU, Michigan, and Wisconsin. It's not even a debate....... Michigan is clearly at the head of these 4 teams.

You all put too much stock in conference championships. They reward teams for playing tough schedules and Michigan back doored into getting us as a great non confence game.
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Here's what we know about what they value:

There have been two selections made so far. 8 of the 8 teams have been conference champions.
Conference championships are listed first among their selection criteria.
Head to head, strength of schedule, program prestige, and overall performance are listed as well.

How those all factor in is mostly guesswork for any of us.

I think Michigan is dead in the water having lost 2 of 3 and not winning its conference.
Alabama, Clemson and Washington control their own destiny and are in with wins.
Alabama might get in even if they lose.
Ohio State might get in without a conference championship.
Ohio State, or hypothetical CCG loser Bama might be out if a lot of weight is given to conference championships.

Oklahoma, Ok. State, Penn St., Wisconsin, and Colorado will be huge fans of Virginia Tech this weekend.
 
As many have pointed out, they won't put three teams from the same conference in, even two would set a precedent. Ergo Michigan has been eliminated as Ohio St is the next up in the B1G. Bama is in, leaving Clemson/Pac12/OU for consideration of the last spot, in that order. Need help from Va Tech but if that card falls right CU or UW gets in, imo.
 
PhillyBuff said:
Pitt not ranked and Iowa is.... I am valuing the big 10 much higher than the ACC..... my opinion is that the Pitt loss is a lot worse than the Iowa loss. Then we get into injuries? Do we even consider them? I don't even want to go there..... that brings in too much hypothetical for a process that already has enough flaws.

The polls partially agree with me and have ranked Michigan ahead of Wisconsin in one poll....

I can't be that crazy.
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We'll see when the CFP comes out Tuesday, but the AP has Iowa at #22 and Pitt at #24, basically a wash. I think you are vastly understating the value the CFP places on conference championships.
 
First time in my life I will ever want to see a Virginia Tech win. I don't even think of it that way. Clemson loss.
 
If I wake up on Sunday, and the Buffs are Pac-12 champs, and a couple of other things have gone our way, then I'll worry about this ****.

All I really want right now is a win Friday. We've done so much this year, but the team's stated goal was a conference title. I want to see them do it.

After that, my notion is that after last Saturday's events, we are completely out, barring a miracle. I'm not going to get upset unless the miracle chain of events happens.
 
what about getting rid of divisions and CCG with the 2 top teams in the standings? The NCAA and the conferences can still get the revenue from having the game in place. This way if you finish 3 or 4 in your conference, you have no shot at getting in? No matter how good your OOC or head to head or anything else. if we had an 8-16 team playoff, I could see all 4 big 14 teams getting in. It would also eliminate bad streaks, like the north winning 5 CCGs in a row, that will end this year.

I suppose you could have unofficial divisions for scheduling purposes?
 
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Philly hasn't been paying attention. The committee places a huge premium on winning your conference and also on winning a conference championship game. They sure as hell aren't giving a 2 loss team who finished 3rd in their division a berth over numerous 2 loss conference champions. Rankings up until the final ones don't take that into account as no one will have won a CCG yet.

Anyway, I think the games broke the wrong way for us on Saturday but there are enough question marks that things could get interesting if we win on Friday, especially if Clemson loses:

-Buffs: does the committee give us credit for the Sefo injury being a factor against Michigan and USC? A big night for Sefo against UW likely helps.
-Penn St: how much does losing by 39 to Michigan count against them? We certainly have the more impressive loss (even not accounting for the Sefo injury) to the common opponent
-Ohio St: does the committee ding them for both not winning their conference championship and not having to play in the game? We haven't seen them put a non-conference champ in the playoff yet. We did see them put a 1 loss non-conference champ Iowa ahead of 2-loss Pac 12 champ Stanford last year in the final rankings but that Iowa team played in the CCG (13th data point).
-Oklahoma: does the B12 get screwed again for not having a CCG as well as sucking in general? Jerry Palm seems to think so and while his predictions of games suck, he is pretty good at getting into the minds of the committees in basketball and football.
 
I think they do value winning the conference. I think the four in will be
Alabama (assuming the win over Florida)
Clemson (if they win)
Wisc/Penn winner
Huskies if they win. If CU wins, then...who knows. I think Ohio States only chance is if CU wins. I think OU is out of luck either way.

I want the Buffs to win to make sure we at least get the Rose bowl, and to see what happens. Committee probably would like Clemson and Washington to win so they can more easily justify putting conference winners in. If the Buffs lose I want an OT loss to make sure we stay above USC and get the Rose Bowl. To those saying the Rose Bowl would talk USC anyway, I read things they look at, and CU never being there before would be a big reason they would pick us over USC if it is close.
 
Is "Program Prestige" really one of the criteria that the commitee uses to choose playoff teams? If so, that's some major B.S. that they just put it there in writing. But I guess I have to give them credit for outwardly stating what everyone already knows.

On another note, I don't think a good showing but Buffs loss in the P12CG necessarily means the Rose Bowl is out of the question. As we know, the Rose Bowl prides itself on "tradition" and for many years the Pac 10/Big 10 tiebreaker to play in the Rose was the team that had the longest drought of appearing in the game. For example, if USC/UCLA/Cal all finished 6-2 in conference, Cal would have been the representative. It wouldn't have mattered who beat who or what team was ranked higher in the polls.

I bring this up because there is a very appealing story line about the Buffs that the Rose Bowl commitee might like. Downtrodden program, suddenly on the rise. Never appeared in the game before, BIG So. Cal. fan base etc...

I do worry that if Michigan is the Big 10 rep. we will lose out. Gotta think that bowl games shy away from rematches. But like several in this thread have already said: Just win Friday night and make this all a moot point.
 
DBT said:
I just have a hard time getting fired up over a CU vs Okie St. matchup in the Alamo Bowl.
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I don't think this would be the worst thing in the world. It would be the first game against a Big 12 opponent since leaving the conference and Buffs would probably be favored...

Alamo Bowl would be even more attractive if Oklahoma were to lose on Saturday and become the opponent.

If I had told you back in August that I could see the future and at season's end CU would be playing in the Alamo Bowl, I'm pretty sure you would have been pumped!
 
CUBUFF80 said:
Not gonna read this entire string, but I think a team that did not even win their division (tOSU) should not even be in consideration for the playoff.
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On the surface, I have a hard time disagreeing with you. However, it's shaping up to give us two teams from the B1G. Ohio State and the winner of the CCG. I just done see either Penn St or Wisconsin jumping OSU in the poll, and there would be Hell to pay if they don't take the conference champ. However, if CU loses to UW, it would really out the committee in a tough spot. I'm pretty sure the committee would like nothing more than to have CU win this Friday so they can pat us on the head and give us a ranking #5 and have OSU, Alabama, Clemson and the B1G champ in the playoff. A UW win really messes things up.
 
Corn Manelton said:
I don't think this would be the worst thing in the world. It would be the first game against a Big 12 opponent since leaving the conference and Buffs would probably be favored...

Alamo Bowl would be even more attractive if Oklahoma were to lose on Saturday and become the opponent.

If I had told you back in August that I could see the future and at season's end CU would be playing in the Alamo Bowl, I'm pretty sure you would have been pumped!
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I'd be thrilled with the Alamo Bowl. Just not Okie St. I like the idea of playing in Tejas. Only 180 miles from my home town.
 
sackman said:
On the surface, I have a hard time disagreeing with you. However, it's shaping up to give us two teams from the B1G. Ohio State and the winner of the CCG. I just done see either Penn St or Wisconsin jumping OSU in the poll, and there would be Hell to pay if they don't take the conference champ. However, if CU loses to UW, it would really out the committee in a tough spot. I'm pretty sure the committee would like nothing more than to have CU win this Friday so they can pat us on the head and give us a ranking #5 and have OSU, Alabama, Clemson and the B1G champ in the playoff. A UW win really messes things up.
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This is spot on I think. The committee can point to the Pac 12's OOC as to why we don't make it in over the B1G champ. I don't see how they leave out Ohio State. Their job is to pick the best 4 teams (conference champ being one of the criteria) and I can make an argument that Ohio State doesn't belong in the top 4.
 
PhillyBuff said:
Pitt not ranked and Iowa is.... I am valuing the big 10 much higher than the ACC..... my opinion is that the Pitt loss is a lot worse than the Iowa loss. Then we get into injuries? Do we even consider them? I don't even want to go there..... that brings in too much hypothetical for a process that already has enough flaws.

The polls partially agree with me and have ranked Michigan ahead of Wisconsin in one poll....

I can't be that crazy.
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the numbers don't back up the value you're ascribing.

1 Southeastern 14 98-68 (59%) 42-12 (78%) 37.78 56.701
2 Atlantic Coast 14 98-70 (58%) 42-14 (75%) 36.56 55.032
3 Big Ten 14 95-73 (57%) 32-10 (76%) 36.34 54.583
4 Pacific-12 12 80-64 (56%) 26-10 (72%) 35.90 54.404
up.gif
+15 Big 12 10 61-53 (54%) 19-11 (63%) 34.87 52.477
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
RPI link

Edit: apologies for the crappy formatted table. apparently copy/pasting is not one of my core competencies.
 
JCOLE12010 said:
what about getting rid of divisions and CCG with the 2 top teams in the standings? The NCAA and the conferences can still get the revenue from having the game in place. This way if you finish 3 or 4 in your conference, you have no shot at getting in? No matter how good your OOC or head to head or anything else. if we had an 8-16 team playoff, I could see all 4 big 14 teams getting in. It would also eliminate bad streaks, like the north winning 5 CCGs in a row, that will end this year.

I suppose you could have unofficial divisions for scheduling purposes?
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Clay Travis backed me up!!!
 
I'm starting to wonder if UW and PSU win if there's a possibility that Clemson becomes the odd team out in that scenario. Clemson's schedule suddenly isn't looking so hot after Louisville's late season collapse and Auburn now has 4 losses.
 
Unless Clemson loses, a CCG winner or a deserving, one loss Ohio State team is going to be left out. There will be loud noises coming from some influential program to expand.
 
CarolinaBuff said:
I'm starting to wonder if UW and PSU win if there's a possibility that Clemson becomes the odd team out in that scenario. Clemson's schedule suddenly isn't looking so hot after Louisville's late season collapse and Auburn now has 4 losses.
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Clemson has 8 wins against bowl teams only Bama has more.
 
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