My take:
It really depends on the rest of their roster, if they land most of the guys they are currently targeting, they should have a shot in every single game to win.
Right now:
QB - Depth, if Sanders goes down, they have one true FR but what if he's not good. I do like Weisman if they can sign him. Note: I didn't realize two QBs stayed
RB - I like the young depth but they need an RB1. Edwards was a terrific signing.
WR - They signed a lot of quality depth but who's WR1, WR2, Slot WR1 and Slot WR2. With Jordyn Tyson hurt and Travis playing both sides, this needs to be answered. If Travis is WR1, that's fine. They must sign Jimmy Horn Jr. and Kevin Coleman Jr. Those two are critical.
TE - This is where it's really really bad. They are trying to sign Seydou Traore who's On3's #2 TE and Arik Gilbert which would turn this into a strength.
T - They signed Jatta and Washington so they got talent now. They already got depth but one to two more quality tackles can help a lot.
C - They are really good right here. Van Wells was a Fr All-American and has NFL potential. They got depth here and signed a good HS kid.
G - I still think they need to add here. I like Tommy Brown. They added a kid from JSU who's very consistent. But they need to add more.
Defense
DT - They got one kid who's like a six-year senior who's good. After that, it goes DOWNNNNN Hill. They need to add here. They added a couple of kids in the portal but they need more depth for sure. This is very weak.
EDGE - They added some really good kids here but they need more. The trenches are a weak area.
LB - They have been adding a lot of depth but I think they got starters in place that could hold from the previous team talent-wise. They just need depth and they have been adding it.
CB - Depth is the biggest issue here and they added a lot of it. They added a CB1 but still need a CB2.
S - They need some starters and added Cam which covers one spot. Shilo and Huggins are expected to join and help. They already have depth but those were starters last year and shouldn't have been.
K - Mata from JSU is expected to join. They got a decent kicker already but not as good as Mata.
P - They badly need a punter.
Targets # by position
QB - 1
RB - 0
WR - 3
TE - 3
OL - 3
DT - 4
EDGE - 2
LB - 1
CB - 1
S - 2
K - 1
P - 1
For the most part, the team is complete. I expect them to land their targets at:
QB - 1 - Yes
RB - 0
WR - 3 - Yes, all three
TE - 3 - They need two out of three. Could land all three if they wanted to.
OL - 3 - I am expecting 1 out of 3. There is a chance none will sign with CU.
DT - 4 - This is more of a need than actual targets whereas the others are actual targets.
EDGE - 2 - I expect them to land 1 of the 2.
LB - 1 - Toss-up, not counting on it.
CB - 1 - We all know this is McClain, we will see if this happens.
S - 2 - Huggins and Sanders are likely to join Prime at Colorado
K - 1 - Mata is likely to join CU.
P - 1 - I am not sure if the HS kid will commit as he will be a PWO and he has gotten full offers from D2. So I am not sure here.
LS - 1 - I know he's bringing the kid from JSU with him to CU.
They filled a lot of their needs already but still got some remaining.
As things are right now: The OL is right there with everyone else in the PAC-12. You got a legit C/G with Wells and Brown. Adding Tyler Brown gives you a very consistent G. Savion Washington already fits the scheme and he's good at both pass/run blocking. Jatta has legit NFL talent but with top-end talent-level JUCO guys, I am always in prove-it mode with them. The talent is obvious but they have to play in a scheme, if they do, they look like 1st rounders, if they don't, they end up rotational at best.
The WR room has depth but could add more. I question the top-end talent in the room for now. Of course, this could change soon. I am also not including Travis as a WR outside of certain formations. If he is a FT WR and CU's WR1, that changes A LOT. Gives CU what they lack the most, a WR1. WR1 is not in the portal this year unless you are talking about Hunter.
The RB has depth. Right now, we don't have a #1 but maybe Edwards is their #1. Edwards fits exactly into Lewis's system so maybe Edwards is RB1.
The QB room still has two QBs left with Shrout and Carter with Sanders. Plus you got the freshman from Cali, you got a very good QB room. I would like to see one more freshman QB. This is good.
The TE is loaded with TE3 and rotational run-blocking guys. Not ideal for a G5 much less any P5.
Overall, the offense isn't great but it has upside. The OL and QB is the strength. Of course, with some signings, the WR/TE room could be insane. Currently, CU personnel compares favorably to UCLA. Not quite in the same convo as Washington, USC, or Oregon for 2023. Utah could end up losing a lot so I am just watching them from afar and seeing how they hit the portal. If they can land some high-end WR/TE players, that puts them right there with USC, Washington, and Oregon on offense.
Defense is where I think they are average for now whereas offense is good and extremely close to pretty good depending on Jordyn Tyson's status.
DL - This room just lacks too much depth. I do like some of the adds. I see a lot of instant players added but the depth just isn't here.
LB - They have talent here, just no stars but how Coach Hart uses his LBs, it's all about reaction time and the DL is key to his LBs. He's all about intelligence and reaction time with his personnel. I like the guys from 2023 class that they added.
DB - I really didn't like the front-line guys but there is talent within this group. They just need time to develop. They got talent though, need to develop. Adding Cam Silmon-Craig and Travis Hunter to Trevor Woods is going to be nice. Obviously, Shilo is also coming and maybe Higgins as well. Nikko Reed showed some good things but I wonder if he's better as a slot corner. I still think CB2 needs to be addressed. Either in the portal or by Cormani McClain.
Overall, the defense is average which is a major upgrade over last year's terrible one. The lack of studs is notable on the front 7 but you don't need studs, you need solid players with a lot of depth to be good. To be excellent or elite, you need studs. As of right now, the only stud is Travis Hunter. Studs are hard to come by. Pac-12 defenses hardly have em.
Stud list for PAC-12:
Oregon
Noah Sewell
Christian Gonzalez
UCLA
Laiatu Latu
Gabriel Murphy
USC
Mekhi Blackmon
Tuli Tuipulotu
Calen Bullock
Utah
Clark Phillips III
Sione Vaki
Washington
Bralen Trice
WAZZU
Chau Smith-Wade
Stanford
Kyu Blu Kelly
As I said, studs are hard to come by for this conference on the defensive side. If you got just one, you are feeling good about yourself. Teams like UGA have 7 studs on the field at all times on D.
If they can improve their depth in the portal. That would go a long way. Depth is critical for defense. JSU DL wasn't anywhere near as talented this year as last year but they had the same impact as they had a lot more depth. All of that depth was gone in the NC game and they got railed. Depth is the most critical need in college football with the pace of the game in today's era. Also, not having depth guys in starting positions. That's a killer and having a scheme that doesn't fit the personnel is another killer.
I currently project this team to be better than 2022 WAZZU for this upcoming year. They were 7-5 and lost in the bowl game to Fresno to finish 7-6. If they can get more defensive depth, especially on the DL, they could be a good defense that WAZZU had in 2022 and push them to the upper tier of the PAC. So much about Colorado offense is about who else they land. They just ended up with Miller but they need Coleman Jr and Horn Jr just as bad. If Hunter is WR1, they will be right there for best offenses in the nation. That would actually give Colorado a chance to be the best team in the Pac-12 on paper. This is all on paper. We need to see how this works in the spring.
Offense - Good, compares to 2022 UCLA
Defense - Average, compares to 2022 USC
Potential
Offense - Very good
Defense - Solid (Above Average)
If they land who they are targeting
Offense - Excellent
Defense - Good
I don't think it's out the question Colorado can win the Pac and make the playoffs if they continue to strike big in the portal/HS recruiting.
Considering Colorado's schedule and the quality of QB play in the PAC in 2023, this will be tough no matter what.
Based on the portal/grad, here is my current projections in the PAC
1st tier - 2-3 losses at most.
1t. Oregon - Best overall team but I question the defense in 2023.
1t. USC - Defense is looking even more mid coming into 2023 than 2022 but the offense might be the best in the nation.
3. Washington - The best defense in the PAC-12 with a lethal passing game. They are a tad too one-dimensional but they are legit.
2nd tier - 4-6 losses.
4t. UCLA - Losing a lot of good players but entered the portal and replaced them to a degree. They are losing some studs on the OL but they should be good enough to still be a contender for the Pac-12 title even if they aren't likely to win it.
4t. Colorado - The most improved team so far in the Pac-12 looks good on paper, as good as 2023 WAZZU at this point but can they produce with such a new roster like USC and some others did who hit the portal hard.
4t. Utah - The Pac-12 champs are a 1st tier team if Rising returns or they land a big-time QB in the portal. But they are losing a lot of talent to the draft but no one in the PAC develops as well as Utah at this time.
4t. WAZZU - With an expected good defense and average offense, they should be even better in 2023 than in 2022. They really shocked people in 2022 but won't be shocking anyone in 2023.
3rd tier - bad to awful teams
8t. Cal - Killed by portal but is killing it with offers in the portal. Just waiting to see the results. I still expect them to be at least bad but not awful, that said, they look awful right now.
8t. Arizona - Colorado of last year where they got murdered in the portal. I don't think they will overcome this. At least they got De Laura and Cowing so they will be able to put up some type of numbers.Since Cowing is back, I pushed them 8t.That's not an awful team. Awful teams don't have a legit NFL prospect.
10t. Stanford - Looks awful and will likely be awful.
10t. Arizona St. - Killed in the portal and didn't even need to be killed.
The bottom of the Pac-12 could be brutal in 2023. You might have three 2022 Colorados. These teams are getting murdered in the portal and aren't recruiting to where they are replacing it or even coming close.
12/24/2022
Edit: Oregon State - unrated. I need time to evaluate them and they haven't been raided like the bottom 4 and they played well as a collective last year. Let me see. They most definitely tier 1 or 2. I'll add them to the next update right after the spring game. Adding D.J. gives them a talented QB. D.J. numbers in a clean pocket is exceptionally good and OSU OL is one of the best in the Pac-12 as most OL are good in the Pac-12 as the pass rushing in the Pac-12 is bad and the run defense isn't much better. D.J. could have a breakout year like Penix and Nix.
I hate to say this but Shedeur and D.J. will be doing their happy dance as the time they will have in the pocket will be something else. In the SWAC, most DLs are much better than the OLs. In the ACC, it's about even. In the Pac-12, it's very QB friendly.
