Projecting Josh Scott & Xavier Johnson's Numbers For 2012-13

[tante]

jg, can you do us a favor and plug in our possessions per game above so we know how this translates into PPG and RPG just for giggles?

 

[Darth Snow]

jg, can you do us a favor and plug in our possessions per game above so we know how this translates into PPG and RPG just for giggles?

That spawns a whole new argument... what will our ppg be like next year? I'm betting our pace will still not reach Taddy's first year here, but be faster than last year.

 

[CVilleBuff]

On the season as a whole CU was an average FT shooting team last year and was 7th in the Pac-12, would I like to have a year were Alec, Cory and Levi were all shooting near 90%? Of course I would, but that isn't realistic. This isn't the NBA, college teams as a whole don't shoot 80% from the line (1 in all of college basketball did last year). All of those games you reference, CU won all of them, maybe it isn't acceptable and it is probably lucky FT shooting didn't cost them more games but it didn't.

I honestly don't think that asking the Freshman as a whole to 70% should be a stretch, but Dinwiddie shot 82% and Ski shot 76%, so it can be done.

I think an average clip at least in the low 70's is a fair expectation, along with more consistency.

 

[jgisland]

jg, can you do us a favor and plug in our possessions per game above so we know how this translates into PPG and RPG just for giggles?

I can't edit Goose's good work. But CU played at a pace that averaged 65.7 possessions a game, the NCAA average was 66.1. And in P12 play CU averaged 66.6 (CU was fifth) and the conf as a whole averaged 65.4.

In Tad's first season CU averaged 67.9 possessions a game overall and 69.2 in B12 play and Bzdellik's teams in 08 and 09 played in the 62.5 range, near the slowest in the country, the 10 team (corey and alec) did pick it up and averaged at 68.5.

 

[tante]

I can't edit Goose's good work. But CU played at a pace that averaged 65.7 possessions a game, the NCAA average was 66.1. And in P12 play CU averaged 66.6 (CU was fifth) and the conf as a whole averaged 65.4.

In Tad's first season CU averaged 67.9 possessions a game overall and 69.2 in B12 play and Bzdellik's teams in 08 and 09 played in the 62.5 range, near the slowest in the country, the 10 team (corey and alec) did pick it up and averaged at 68.5.

how does %pos relate to shots per game?

 

[jgisland]

That spawns a whole new argument... what will our ppg be like next year? I'm betting our pace will still not reach Taddy's first year here, but be faster than last year.

Goose and I went round and round about this last year. It always felt like CU was playing faster than their #'s showed, we pseudo came to the conclusion that CU was pushing the ball but not necessarily getting a quick shot on the shot clock b/c they were making the extra pass to catch a team out of position. So while pace/possessions is the foundation of the "new stats" movement it can be deceiving. Cory and Alec were athletic enough to finish in traffic on the break where last year's guys weren't, they would pull it out and not force something they weren't athletically gifted enough to finish. So while both teams pushed it, last years team had to use more clock to get off a shot.

All that being said I agree with you, I think they play faster, due in part to this year's team being more athletically gifted and able to finish in traffic in transition. And I could see this team being even faster than Tad's first year, in part due to the fact they are young, veteran teams pull it out and slow it down when it isn't there. While Dinwiddie showed he can do that last year that isn't exactly Ski's forte, he will undoubtedly get more minutes and you have to figure athletic big man freshman are going to want to fill the lanes on the break to rack up some highlight dunks.

 

[Buffnik]

I agree with jg on this.

I also think that steals were down last year, so we had longer defensive possessions. If you play great defense but don't force turnovers, the other team is going to be using a lot of clock and it will slow the game down. A lot of times, especially late in the year, I think we were resting on offense by using clock in turn.

 

[jgisland]

how does %pos relate to shots per game?

It doesn't exactly, you can have multiple shots in 1 possession. All of the above stats are based on possessions per game, it may sound obvious but a possession ends when the other team gets the ball, ie def rebound, turnover, steal etc.

I am sure that isn't clear: so i will give you ken pomeroy's definition

Percentage of possessions used (%Poss): A measure of personal possessions used while the player is on the court. Simply assigns credit or blame to a player when his actions end a possession, either by making a shot, missing a shot that isn’t rebounded by the offense, or committing a turnover.

 

[Goose]

I agree with jg on this.

I also think that steals were down last year, so we had longer defensive possessions. If you play great defense but don't force turnovers, the other team is going to be using a lot of clock and it will slow the game down. A lot of times, especially late in the year, I think we were resting on offense by using clock in turn.

This is another thing that JG and I had discussions on -- was it Tad's policy to NOT gamble for steals? If you look, we had a pretty damn good defensive rating, but our turnovers forced percentage was in the bottom third of the country. Was this because of Tad's coaching ("just play guys straight, play solid D and don't gamble?") or was this due to some of the limitations of our players (not quick/athletic enough to force steals)?

 

[torero]

This is another thing that JG and I had discussions on -- was it Tad's policy to NOT gamble for steals? If you look, we had a pretty damn good defensive rating, but our turnovers forced percentage was in the bottom third of the country. Was this because of Tad's coaching ("just play guys straight, play solid D and don't gamble?") or was this due to some of the limitations of our players (not quick/athletic enough to force steals)?

I can promise you Tad falls on the play it straight, take less risks side of that equation. Tad likes to run, but not at the expense of giving up layups on the defensive end.

 

[Ruckus]

This is another thing that JG and I had discussions on -- was it Tad's policy to NOT gamble for steals? If you look, we had a pretty damn good defensive rating, but our turnovers forced percentage was in the bottom third of the country. Was this because of Tad's coaching ("just play guys straight, play solid D and don't gamble?") or was this due to some of the limitations of our players (not quick/athletic enough to force steals)?

This is something I questioned quite a bit as well. On the perimeter we did not deny passing lanes. Unless it was an awfully slow or lazy pass, we let it happen. It is more risky because having a hand in the passing lane opens up more backdoor opportunities, but they can be taught to prevent this so I still don't get it.

 

[Goose]

Drew Cannon went through and analyzed the projections from the first post in this thread. And?

I like these projections a lot. Scott-Roberson is quite the frontcourt. Johnson could absolutely slide into the 3-spot next to Spencer Dinwiddie and Askia Booker, but if not he’ll be a perfectly acceptable sixth man.

So, statistically, the numbers in the first post should be what we can expect from them this year.