I get what you are saying, but my intent may be a bit different with that graphic. "Upside win" to me includes the intangibles of things like the importance of the rivlary (Nubs), breaking a losing streak (U$C), and making a statement out of the gate (Frog). In my mind Nubs stay where they are because while many now expect a win, it still has a huge upside for the program, the rivalry, and the fans. No other win this year would mean more to me personally.
When I first put it together I had the following division in mind, and I think it still largely applies:
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