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Realistic expectations for '14-'15

DBT

DBT

Club Member
Club Member
Might as well start the discussion. Goose says Spencer is gone. Assuming that is true, what can we expect for next year? (I'm not giving up on this year by any means). This is what I like about college sports. They are a continual evolution with recruiting cycles, players entering as immature kids and developing over 4 or 5 years. It can be a joy and excruciating all in one.

How ow will this "forced development" of the young guys impact the results next year? Will Collier be able to come in and have an immediate impact? Will Spencer decide he needs a year to rehab and regain his status or is he gone? Are we a tournament team next year?
 
We are getting a jump start on life after Dinwiddie. It will pay dividends next year, because we will return our entire starting 5, so the adjustment period we have had to start each season with replacing an NBA player will be negated. They will spend the entire offseason working on and improving a known quantity.
 
This is just making us better for next year. Losing Spencer was going to suck. It would have sucked a lot less had he lead us to a Sweet 16/Elite 8 this year like we hoped, but it was still going to suck. That said, as we saw last night, the team isn't completely without talent. They're going to have to adjust their game plan and schemes a bit, but they're going to be better.

Here's a rough projection.

StartersMPG
Wes25
XJ25
Jelly30
Ski25
Dom25
BenchMPG
DT15
XT15
Fletch15
JHop25

I don't think we have anyone with the workload minutes that Spencer was getting (maybe Ski, maybe Jelly), but I think we're a lot more balanced. This leaves King, Miller and Eli for spot minutes off of the bench. And we're going to need all three. If we need someone to D & rebound, we bring in King. If we need someone to bang down low, we bring in Miller. Eli (hopefully) will keep working on his shot and provide another ballhandler in the crunch.
 
DBT said:
Might as well start the discussion. Goose says Spencer is gone. Assuming that is true, what can we expect for next year? (I'm not giving up on this year by any means). This is what I like about college sports. They are a continual evolution with recruiting cycles, players entering as immature kids and developing over 4 or 5 years. It can be a joy and excruciating all in one.

How ow will this "forced development" of the young guys impact the results next year? Will Collier be able to come in and have an immediate impact? Will Spencer decide he needs a year to rehab and regain his status or is he gone? Are we a tournament team next year?
Click to expand...

too much still to be played this year to start projecting to next year.
 
I really think Eli should spend the entire offseason on 3pt shots. Become a sharp shooter. Become the guy that trails in transition and is counted on for kickout 3's. That is what we are missing, and I think that is where Eli could help us.
 
Shldr2Shldr said:
I really think Eli should spend the entire offseason on 3pt shots. Become a sharp shooter. Become the guy that trails in transition and is counted on for kickout 3's. That is what we are missing, and I think that is where Eli could help us.
Click to expand...

You can't just practice something and become good at it. If that was the case, every team in the nation would have a player who does this and becomes a sharpshooter. Just because Stalzer is a below average athlete and white doesn't mean he can become a good shooter.
 
sliderNcider said:
You can't just practice something and become good at it. If that was the case, every team in the nation would have a player who does this and becomes a sharpshooter. Just because Stalzer is a below average athlete and white doesn't mean he can become a good shooter.
Click to expand...

Actually you are wrong....the problem is not many want to put in the time and effort it would take to become a great shooter. Great shooters are made that way by the amount of shots they shoot daily.
 
sliderNcider said:
You can't just practice something and become good at it. If that was the case, every team in the nation would have a player who does this and becomes a sharpshooter. Just because Stalzer is a below average athlete and white doesn't mean he can become a good shooter.
Click to expand...

I am pretty sure Eli was a decent 3pt shooter in HS. He was decent before the KU game last year. He has the ability to.

And isn't the entire point of practice to take a skill you have or may not have and improve on or develop it?
 
SECOBuffsFan said:
Actually you are wrong....the problem is not many want to put in the time and effort it would take to become a great shooter. Great shooters are made that way by the amount of shots they shoot daily.
Click to expand...

That's wrong. You think if Wesley Gordon shoots more 3's a day than any player in the nation, that he is automatically a great 3 point shooter? No. Let's call a spade a spade. Stalzer is a below average athlete who will never be a "sharpshooter." Stalzer was backboarding 18 foot jumpers last night, it takes more than practice to be good at something.
 
sliderNcider said:
That's wrong. You think if Wesley Gordon shoots more 3's a day than any player in the nation, that he is automatically a great 3 point shooter? No. Let's call a spade a spade. Stalzer is a below average athlete who will never be a "sharpshooter." Stalzer was backboarding 18 foot jumpers last night, it takes more than practice to be good at something.
Click to expand...

Actually...if he wanted to invest 4 hours a day from the day the season was over until the first day of camp working on perfect form then yes, he COULD be the best 3 point shooter on the team. However, rarely do kids (or even coaches for that matter) want to make that kind of commitment.

I have coached high school basketball for 20 years and I had 2 kids make a serious commitment to improving their shooting. They spent 2 hours in the gym every night during their summer vacation working on perfect form. They both went from the lowest levels of high school sports in Colorado to play college ball. 1 even made it as a walk-on at CSU before he just got tired of it all and quit. That is the kind of commitment it would take.
 
We'll agree to disagree then. Isn't the rep on Askia that he practices his shot for hours a day, yet he is still a streaky shooter?
 
sliderNcider said:
We'll agree to disagree then. Isn't the rep on Askia that he practices his shot for hours a day, yet he is still a streaky shooter?
Click to expand...

Booker's problem isn't form it is shot selection and foot balance. I didn't see the game last night but I bet you all of his makes were when he was in balance
 
Stalzer's release is way too long. It takes him forever to get a shot off. That isn't the stuff sharpshooters on this level are made of. And it can't be corrected in one offseason.
 
SECOBuffsFan said:
Booker's problem isn't form it is shot selection and foot balance. I didn't see the game last night but I bet you all of his makes were when he was in balance
Click to expand...

Spot on. When he's actually set and not fading his body weight one way or then other (sometimes it's necessary, others he just doesn't set for whatever reason) he's a very good 3pt shooter. When he doesn't, he misses and sometimes misses badly.

Another thing is how you practice your shooting. For example, shooting 100's of FT's every day is great, but if you want to do that in a real game you need to run a suicide or two then shoot to make you tired and out of breath.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
SECOBuffsFan said:
Booker's problem isn't form it is shot selection and foot balance. I didn't see the game last night but I bet you all of his makes were when he was in balance
Click to expand...

Uhhh... Whatever. The original premise was basically that Stalzer would automatically become a "sharpshooter" by way of practice only.

And no he wasn't particularly good in HS (made more than 1 three once his SR year, scored in double digits only 4 times, and save me the "he didn't have to score due to the team around him bs"
 
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azbuff said:
Stalzer's release is way too long. It takes him forever to get a shot off. That isn't the stuff sharpshooters on this level are made of. And it can't be corrected in one offseason.
Click to expand...

Exactly. Slow release. Can't we just get a walk-on to take 10k threes a day and become Reggie Miller? It's that easy right
 
I agree with Slider. Stalzer isn't going to be the next Levi Knutson, as much as we would all like for that to be the case. He's a good practice player who works hard and pushes other players to be better, but we won't be depending on him to provide any kind of offensive help. He's an average player on a team with a lot of above average to great players on it.
 
I hit three 3's in a row at Elitches and won a giant stuffed animal. The two handed set shot is unstoppable!

Back on topic: Shooters are a combination of naturally gifted and hard work. I'm sure Shaq practiced his FT shooting and look where it got him.
 
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This entire argument started with the false statement that you can't practice something and become good at it...that basically means that player development isn't important
 
Okay, well I'll say it. I don't think it's exactly a given that Spencer is gone. Not sure how much CU will be able to count on him, even if he does return (being that it typically takes 12-18 months to return from a serious injury).

I'll also say that it wouldn't have sucked at all to see Spencer go to the NBA draft after potentially leading CU to a Sweet 16 or Elite 8 appearance. It's what good programs do. You lose top talent to the NBA, which should continue to improve recruiting. What you do not want to see is a kid leaving early and not being in the NBA the following year.
 
SECOBuffsFan said:
This entire argument started with the false statement that you can't practice something and become good at it...that basically means that player development isn't important
Click to expand...

No. That's not what it means at all. It means that at this level, you can't take a kid who isn't naturally a good shooter and turn him into one through practice and effort.
 
Far as expectations for next year: Most of our players should be better. Collier will likely be forced to play major, major minutes regardless what happens with Spencer. Tory Miller should be an instant contributor off the bench. Probably a team in the 21-23 win range. Perhaps higher then that if Spencer returns to his old form around Conference play (which would be a bit of a stretch)
 
Well I doubt we are gonna depend heavily on Eli. He'll get minutes but I don't think he's expected to be a prolific scorer.
 
Will Spencer be assured of going in the first round? If so, he should. Even if he takes a substantial financial hit to what he was projected to get. If this projects to knock him out of the first round, well, then he has a difficult choice. Made harder by the fact that he'd probably made his mind up before the injury.
 
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