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Realistic Expectations for rest of year...

DiggerBuffs

Well-Known Member
I wrote something up and it went away, so I'll condense it:

I expect everyone to take a little more on. Ski will need to distribute and not put it all on his shoulders.

I believe best case scenario is 8-6 in rest of conference play. 22-9 and then 1-1 in conference. 1-1 in tourney? 24-11 at best. Hope I am wrong.

Worse case: 20-11, 0-1, 0-1.
 
DateRkOpponentResultLocationRecordConf
Fri Nov 83928BaylorL, 72-6065Semi-Away0-1
Sun Nov 1052309Tennessee MartinW, 91-6574Home1-1
Wed Nov 135390WyomingW, 63-5862Home2-1
Sat Nov 1658296Jackson St.W, 94-7076Home3-1
Mon Nov 1857184Arkansas St.W, 93-7076Home4-1
Thu Nov 215675UC Santa BarbaraW, 76-6869Home5-1
Sun Nov 245727HarvardW, 70-6267Home6-1
Sat Nov 3049232Air ForceW, 81-5769Away7-1
Tue Dec 342128Colorado St.W, 67-6271Away8-1
Sat Dec 7389KansasW, 75-7267Home9-1
Fri Dec 1337161ElonW, 80-6372Home10-1
Sat Dec 213012Oklahoma St.L, 78-7371Neutral10-2
Sat Dec 2828147GeorgiaW, 84-7064Home11-2
Thu Jan 229116Oregon St.W, 64-5861Home12-21-0
Sun Jan 53339OregonW, 100-9178Home13-22-0
Wed Jan 831145Washington St.W, 71-7067OTSemi-Away14-23-0
Sun Jan 123493WashingtonL, 71-5466Away14-33-1
Thu Jan 1631UCLAW, 79-787357%HomeL×
Sat Jan 18131USCW, 78-677385%HomeW×
Thu Jan 231ArizonaL, 72-59659%AwayL×
Sat Jan 2535Arizona St.L, 74-687030%AwayL×
Sat Feb 160UtahW, 68-636571%HomeW×
Wed Feb 5145Washington St.W, 68-586487%HomeW×
Sun Feb 993WashingtonW, 79-707080%HomeW×
Thu Feb 1331UCLAL, 82-757327%AwayL×
Sun Feb 16131USCW, 74-717361%AwayW×
Wed Feb 1935Arizona St.W, 72-707061%HomeW×
Sat Feb 221ArizonaL, 68-626526%HomeL×
Sat Mar 160UtahL, 66-646541%AwayL×
Wed Mar 552StanfordL, 74-707037%AwayW×
Sat Mar 834CaliforniaL, 74-696930%AwayL×


Final Record: 21-10 (10-8)
 
Last edited:
I think .500 in conference is a good goal but best case. My sense is it could be worse. I am bracing for 2-3 more wins as worse case.
 
buffaholic said:
I think .500 in conference is a good goal but best case. My sense is it could be worse. I am bracing for 2-3 more wins as worse case.
Click to expand...
Why is it best case? We should still win our games at home sans UCLA and Arizona, it's not like we're totally devoid of talent. We need to feed the ball to Scott, XJ, and Gordon down low and step up the defensive intensity. We've won games with far less offensive talent. If Ski keeps being Ski and we have Hopkins step up it shouldn't be all that bad, all things considered. Winning on the road is no easy task in college basketball and winning at the CEC is a very tough task for almost all teams.
 
'Tini said:
Why is it best case? We should still win our games at home sans UCLA and Arizona, it's not like we're totally devoid of talent. We need to feed the ball to Scott, XJ, and Gordon down low and step up the defensive intensity. We've won games with far less offensive talent. If Ski keeps being Ski and we have Hopkins step up it shouldn't be all that bad, all things considered. Winning on the road is no easy task in college basketball and winning at the CEC is a very tough task for almost all teams.
Click to expand...


Agreed. I actually think we can compete with UCLA and Zona at home. For one, UCLA has only played one "true" road game at Missouri and lost, and the CEC willl be really scary tomorrow night with all the students back, I can see us winning if we feed the post.

Zona, on the other hand will be tough, but they will lose a game eventually, that's college bball, so why not lose in Boulder to us?

I'm a optimist though, we definitely can lose both fairly easily if we don't defend, but as all Boyle's teams have shown, we get much better as the season progresses, and I can see even more improvement since these frosh are being thrown in the fire early.

Winning on the road will be tough. I think we can snatch a victory at USC because they are still really bad and that's probably it, maybe Utah/Stanford too if we can shoot well, but that's really it.

7-7 would be a great finish to teh end of the year. Even if we go 6-8, I still think we have a great shot at the tourney with our great non conference and RPI.
 
'Tini said:
DateRkOpponentResultLocationRecordConf
Fri Nov 83928BaylorL, 72-6065Semi-Away0-1
Sun Nov 1052309Tennessee MartinW, 91-6574Home1-1
Wed Nov 135390WyomingW, 63-5862Home2-1
Sat Nov 1658296Jackson St.W, 94-7076Home3-1
Mon Nov 1857184Arkansas St.W, 93-7076Home4-1
Thu Nov 215675UC Santa BarbaraW, 76-6869Home5-1
Sun Nov 245727HarvardW, 70-6267Home6-1
Sat Nov 3049232Air ForceW, 81-5769Away7-1
Tue Dec 342128Colorado St.W, 67-6271Away8-1
Sat Dec 7389KansasW, 75-7267Home9-1
Fri Dec 1337161ElonW, 80-6372Home10-1
Sat Dec 213012Oklahoma St.L, 78-7371Neutral10-2
Sat Dec 2828147GeorgiaW, 84-7064Home11-2
Thu Jan 229116Oregon St.W, 64-5861Home12-21-0
Sun Jan 53339OregonW, 100-9178Home13-22-0
Wed Jan 831145Washington St.W, 71-7067OTSemi-Away14-23-0
Sun Jan 123493WashingtonL, 71-5466Away14-33-1
Thu Jan 1631UCLAW, 79-787357%HomeL×
Sat Jan 18131USCW, 78-677385%HomeW×
Thu Jan 231ArizonaL, 72-59659%AwayL×
Sat Jan 2535Arizona St.L, 74-687030%AwayL×
Sat Feb 160UtahW, 68-636571%HomeW×
Wed Feb 5145Washington St.W, 68-586487%HomeW×
Sun Feb 993WashingtonW, 79-707080%HomeW×
Thu Feb 1331UCLAL, 82-757327%AwayL×
Sun Feb 16131USCW, 74-717361%AwayW×
Wed Feb 1935Arizona St.W, 72-707061%HomeW×
Sat Feb 221ArizonaL, 68-626526%HomeL×
Sat Mar 160UtahL, 66-646541%AwayL×
Wed Mar 552StanfordL, 74-707037%AwayW×
Sat Mar 834CaliforniaL, 74-696930%AwayL×


Final Record: 21-10 (10-8)
Click to expand...
Spot on & will get us into the dance...- 2-3 Ws NIT lock
 
One thing's for sure. We'll learn a lot about how good a coach Boyle is. This is the kind of situation that shows a coaches true ability.
 
CU still has a ton of talent in the front court. It's just a question of whether the guards can get them the ball enough. Personally, I think defensively is where the Buffs will struggle more. Dinwiddie is an elite defender at the college level, and can take away the best guard on the other team. Now, you're asking Hopkins to step in and have that same defensive impact.

From a length view, neither Talton or Booker will be able to do it against bigger guards.
 
Thursday's game is a fantastic test. Should be fun to see how they respond. That will be a great barometer for the remainder of the season.
 
rolandftw said:
CU still has a ton of talent in the front court. It's just a question of whether the guards can get them the ball enough. Personally, I think defensively is where the Buffs will struggle more. Dinwiddie is an elite defender at the college level, and can take away the best guard on the other team. Now, you're asking Hopkins to step in and have that same defensive impact.

From a length view, neither Talton or Booker will be able to do it against bigger guards.
Click to expand...
This. With Spencer and even with Fletch, Tad was able to have some very versatile defensive line ups. Offensively, we won't be the same, but the drop off I think we come defensively. The saving grace could come from J-hop developing very quickly defensively and he has the length to guard the same way Spencer did. I would also think that Tad may be forced to play a little more zone and press/trap to cause turnovers to make up for the absence. We will see what happens, but I think we can still be a very competitive team this year.
 
'Tini said:
DateRkOpponentResultLocationRecordConf
Fri Nov 83928BaylorL, 72-6065Semi-Away0-1
Sun Nov 1052309Tennessee MartinW, 91-6574Home1-1
Wed Nov 135390WyomingW, 63-5862Home2-1
Sat Nov 1658296Jackson St.W, 94-7076Home3-1
Mon Nov 1857184Arkansas St.W, 93-7076Home4-1
Thu Nov 215675UC Santa BarbaraW, 76-6869Home5-1
Sun Nov 245727HarvardW, 70-6267Home6-1
Sat Nov 3049232Air ForceW, 81-5769Away7-1
Tue Dec 342128Colorado St.W, 67-6271Away8-1
Sat Dec 7389KansasW, 75-7267Home9-1
Fri Dec 1337161ElonW, 80-6372Home10-1
Sat Dec 213012Oklahoma St.L, 78-7371Neutral10-2
Sat Dec 2828147GeorgiaW, 84-7064Home11-2
Thu Jan 229116Oregon St.W, 64-5861Home12-21-0
Sun Jan 53339OregonW, 100-9178Home13-22-0
Wed Jan 831145Washington St.W, 71-7067OTSemi-Away14-23-0
Sun Jan 123493WashingtonL, 71-5466Away14-33-1
Thu Jan 1631UCLAW, 79-787357%HomeL×
Sat Jan 18131USCW, 78-677385%HomeW×
Thu Jan 231ArizonaL, 72-59659%AwayL×
Sat Jan 2535Arizona St.L, 74-687030%AwayL×
Sat Feb 160UtahW, 68-636571%HomeW×
Wed Feb 5145Washington St.W, 68-586487%HomeW×
Sun Feb 993WashingtonW, 79-707080%HomeW×
Thu Feb 1331UCLAL, 82-757327%AwayL×
Sun Feb 16131USCW, 74-717361%AwayW×
Wed Feb 1935Arizona St.W, 72-707061%HomeW×
Sat Feb 221ArizonaL, 68-626526%HomeL×
Sat Mar 160UtahL, 66-646541%AwayL×
Wed Mar 552StanfordL, 74-707037%AwayW×
Sat Mar 834CaliforniaL, 74-696930%AwayL×


Final Record: 21-10 (10-8)
Click to expand...
Hard to be optimistic when you're not even so optimistic
 
TimmyDUBs said:
One thing's for sure. We'll learn a lot about how good a coach Boyle is. This is the kind of situation that shows a coaches true ability.
Click to expand...
I hate when people say this kind of thing, but I do think there's some truth to it, especially in this case with a significant chunk of our team not available.
 
I'm with you guys. I'm ready to move on. Let's see how Tad rallies the team. Let's see the freshman play extended minutes. Let's see this team fight adversity.
 
'Tini said:
Why is it best case? We should still win our games at home sans UCLA and Arizona, it's not like we're totally devoid of talent. We need to feed the ball to Scott, XJ, and Gordon down low and step up the defensive intensity. We've won games with far less offensive talent. If Ski keeps being Ski and we have Hopkins step up it shouldn't be all that bad, all things considered. Winning on the road is no easy task in college basketball and winning at the CEC is a very tough task for almost all teams.
Click to expand...

It's called an opinion. And to clarify, I meant .500 in conference for the remainder of the schedule would be "best case".

If "Ski keeps being Ski", that won't be consistent enough. We can't have the 2-21 Ski of the last two games.
 
The bay area road trip is getting tougher by the day. I expect us to win at home. Period. The C-Unit has too much of an impact on the game IMO. If we can go .500 the rest of the way on the road, we will be doing alright.
 
buffaholic said:
It's called an opinion. And to clarify, I meant .500 in conference for the remainder of the schedule would be "best case".

If "Ski keeps being Ski", that won't be consistent enough. We can't have the 2-21 Ski of the last two games.
Click to expand...
And I'm asking you to backup your comment. Funny how you mention Ski's consistency but then only mention two games when he had been consistent since the KU game and has only had a couple of bad games this year.
 
Shldr2Shldr said:
The bay area road trip is getting tougher by the day. I expect us to win at home. Period. The C-Unit has too much of an impact on the game IMO. If we can go .500 the rest of the way on the road, we will be doing alright.
Click to expand...


These were the expectations before - realistically we drop a home game and winning on the road is never easy. We have 7 home games - KenPom has us projected to win 1, so somehow to get to 4 road wins we'd have to win 3 games vegas/kenpom would have us as underdogs. Not that it can't happen, it just a lot to ask. We have an 8% chance of going 3-4.
 
jgisland said:
These were the expectations before - realistically we drop a home game and winning on the road is never easy. We have 7 home games - KenPom has us projected to win 1, so somehow to get to 4 road wins we'd have to win 3 games vegas/kenpom would have us as underdogs. Not that it can't happen, it just a lot to ask. We have an 8% chance of going 3-4.
Click to expand...

My expectations for the bay area was that we would beat them both. I think we may lose both. Road wins are tough, but hopefully the new buffs prove me wrong.
 
I'm hoping we beat USC on the road. That, combined with the WSU road win, allow us to drop 2 games at home and stay .500 in league play. Considering we still have Zona, UCLA and UW coming to the Keg, we're going to need that cushion.
 
Don't change them at all, expect to win every game. Making the dance should be a given. Sucks what happened to Spencer but it didn't end the season. We'll see how they react tonight. Might have to play a bit different but there is enough talent to win games.
 
Goose said:
I'm hoping we beat USC on the road. That, combined with the WSU road win, allow us to drop 2 games at home and stay .500 in league play. Considering we still have Zona, UCLA and UW coming to the Keg, we're going to need that cushion.
Click to expand...

And for the record....

UCLA - L
USC - W
@Zona - L
@ASU - L
Utah - W
WSU - W
UW - W
@UCLA - L
@USC - W
ASU - W
Zona - L
@Utah - L
@Furd - L
@Cal - L

And honestly, I'm not real confident about UW or @USC. I want to see what the team looks like @ASU next week, when they've settled into their new roles a bit.
 
I don't understand this "feed the post" mentality. Sure, Scott, Gordon and XJ are going to have to step up inside. But with Spencer gone, we now have ZERO consistent outside shooters. Look at the stats. We're shooting in the low 30s from the perimeter. Ski has to be in the bottom 5 in FG% among starting Pac-12 guards the last 2 years. Defenses are going to stack the box, perimeter guards are going to sag, and it's going to be tough sledding down low. Unless our big guys can pass out of double teams, and then those guards can hit the open jumper, we're in trouble. That has not been our strength, even with Mayor. We've depended on getting to the rim for our points, and to do that well, you need to extend the defense. Why would any team extend against us now?

It's time for Ski, XT and Hop to show they have Pac-12 level jump shots.

.500 the rest of the way in conference will be a huge accomplishment.
 
Somebody is gonna have to start hitting shots consistently cause teams will pack the lane until they make teams pay.
 
seattlebuff said:
I don't understand this "feed the post" mentality. Sure, Scott, Gordon and XJ are going to have to step up inside. But with Spencer gone, we now have ZERO consistent outside shooters. Look at the stats. We're shooting in the low 30s from the perimeter. Ski has to be in the bottom 5 in FG% among starting Pac-12 guards the last 2 years. Defenses are going to stack the box, perimeter guards are going to sag, and it's going to be tough sledding down low. Unless our big guys can pass out of double teams, and then those guards can hit the open jumper, we're in trouble. That has not been our strength, even with Mayor. We've depended on getting to the rim for our points, and to do that well, you need to extend the defense. Why would any team extend against us now?

It's time for Ski, XT and Hop to show they have Pac-12 level jump shots.

.500 the rest of the way in conference will be a huge accomplishment.
Click to expand...
Doesn't Hopkins have the best three point percentage? Also, I am expecting Dustin to come out during this stretch and play very well.
 
FightCu1414 said:
Doesn't Hopkins have the best three point percentage? Also, I am expecting Dustin to come out during this stretch and play very well.
Click to expand...

Yeah, 36%, but kinda small sample size (only 33 attempts). But for sure, he's the guy we need to take a big step forward. 36% ain't great, but if we shot that as a team, we'd be just fine, with our bigs among the best in the league. AZ, OR, Cal, UW, UCLA, Stanford all shoot better than 35% from 3. We're at 30.8%.
 
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