Realistic Expectations for rest of year...

[buffaholic]

And I'm asking you to backup your comment. Funny how you mention Ski's consistency but then only mention two games when he had been consistent since the KU game and has only had a couple of bad games this year.

Consistent since the KU game, but not including our last two games is your definition of consistent? Good to know.

That's about 1/3 of the games this year.

Unless Ski can be like he was for that 6 game stretch, I think we will struggle big time for all the "perimeter" issues mentioned in several of the most recent excellent posts.

I am not going to spell it out for you why we will struggle after losing our floor leader, best shooter, best FT shooter, best ball handler and best perimeter defender. Not to mention that he could get to the line and sink 80% FTs when the game was on the line - at will. Oh yeah, Hopkins shoots 50% from the line....

 

[jgisland]

I don't understand this "feed the post" mentality. Sure, Scott, Gordon and XJ are going to have to step up inside. But with Spencer gone, we now have ZERO consistent outside shooters. Look at the stats. We're shooting in the low 30s from the perimeter. Ski has to be in the bottom 5 in FG% among starting Pac-12 guards the last 2 years. Defenses are going to stack the box, perimeter guards are going to sag, and it's going to be tough sledding down low. Unless our big guys can pass out of double teams, and then those guards can hit the open jumper, we're in trouble. That has not been our strength, even with Mayor. We've depended on getting to the rim for our points, and to do that well, you need to extend the defense. Why would any team extend against us now?

It's time for Ski, XT and Hop to show they have Pac-12 level jump shots.

.500 the rest of the way in conference will be a huge accomplishment.

i wish I disagreed with this, the only positive I can offer is that teams were already playing zone and packing it in and sagging. So the offensive philosophy and game planning doesn't change. Need to play good D, get out in transition and get ball movement in offense. Tad always says he wants to play inside out, we don't see it often, maybe this is our opportunity.

 

[Quattro]

Consistent since the KU game, but not including our last two games is your definition of consistent? Good to know.

That's about 1/3 of the games this year.

Unless Ski can be like he was for that 6 game stretch, I think we will struggle big time for all the "perimeter" issues mentioned in several of the most recent excellent posts.

I am not going to spell it out for you why we will struggle after losing our floor leader, best shooter, best FT shooter, best ball handler and best perimeter defender. Not to mention that he could get to the line and sink 80% FTs when the game was on the line - at will. Oh yeah, Hopkins shoots 50% from the line....

Ok here, how about this, let's look at his ORtg splits..

Date	Opponent	Result	ORtg
Fri Nov 8	35	Baylor	L, 72-60	85
Sun Nov 10	309	Tennessee Martin	W, 91-65	73
Wed Nov 13	96	Wyoming	W, 63-58	100
Sat Nov 16	294	Jackson St.	W, 94-70	135
Mon Nov 18	184	Arkansas St.	W, 93-70	89
Thu Nov 21	70	UC Santa Barbara	W, 76-68	103
Sun Nov 24	28	Harvard	W, 70-62	97
Sat Nov 30	217	Air Force	W, 81-57	90
Tue Dec 3	135	Colorado St.	W, 67-62	82
Sat Dec 7	10	Kansas	W, 75-72	100
Fri Dec 13	156	Elon	W, 80-63	70
Sat Dec 21	11	Oklahoma St.	L, 78-73	129
Sat Dec 28	146	Georgia	W, 84-70	148
Thu Jan 2	111	Oregon St.	W, 64-58	113
Sun Jan 5	38	Oregon	W, 100-91	152
Wed Jan 8	158	Washington St.	W, 71-70	103
Sun Jan 12	103	Washington	L, 71-54	5
Away Ortg	5.0
Home Ortg	107.3
Neutral Ortg	105.7

I'll take a 107.3 ORtg from Ski at home all day. Fwiw, WSU was a semi-away game so I included it in the neutral site games rather than the away games.

You seem to be under the impression that I don't think we'll take a step back, and that simply isn't true. However, you are making it out to be that we have absolutly no talent on this team. Scott is an excellent big man who gets to the line a lot and has a very high ORtg rating this year (129.2 - #40 in D1) who also plays very good D and is becoming a better shot blocker with each game. Gordon has been getting better every game and was borderline dominant against UW on the defensive end of the floor. XJ has shown that he plays well on the big stage and has been playing pretty damn well this year outside of the early games when he kept getting in foul trouble, well every game is going to be the big stage for him. Hopkins isn't a good FT shooter but he does not get to the line much. Five of your players still have ORtg's over 100. We'll take a step back, but we're not all of a sudden going to be this awful team who can't hold their own on their home court (where we have won with far less talent). You do understand how hard it is to win on the road in college bball, right? I'm not sitting here suggesting we're going to win games on the road, but you seem to think that we're going to drop all these home games (which by the way, I am not expecting to beat UA or UCLA at home now). Tad has done a lot more with less (i.e. two years ago - yes weaker conference then blah blah we also have a heck of a lot more talent now) and succeeded, all of a sudden he can't do what he's done at UNC and now CU?

 

[buffaholic]

We have a lot of talent on this team and I never said we don't. I simply have a more pessimistic view of how we will do in the short term, without Dinwiddie.

I am 100% in agreement with SeattleBuff and I think that Dinwiddie's absence will hit us hardest where we were already weakest.

 

[CVilleBuff]

^^This

And it's a pretty high bar for an expectation.

Won't be easy but I still see the players to win games and have success. We need to dig in at home. That's our path.

 

[DBT]

Talking to co-worker kstate fan/alum and he said he saw one projection that had CU not making the tournament. The committee takes into account things like key players being out. So, it is really incumbent on the guys to play well and finish top 4 or 5 in conference.

 

[jgisland]

Talking to co-worker kstate fan/alum and he said he saw one projection that had CU not making the tournament. The committee takes into account things like key players being out. So, it is really incumbent on the guys to play well and finish top 4 or 5 in conference.

Rumblin linked to this article in a post the other day - good insight

"We take missing players into consideration as we look at the teams," committee chairman Gene Smith said Wednesday morning. "We rely on information from the schools. We rely on information from the conferences relative to their status.


"But we still look at how those teams performed at the end of the day. We look at how those teams responded to the adversity they faced, whether they lost a player early, got them back, were able to sustain. We kind of take it into consideration based upon the situation."

 

[Buffnik]

Doesn't Hopkins have the best three point percentage? Also, I am expecting Dustin to come out during this stretch and play very well.

In the 2010-11 season, Dre shot .343 from deep (better than Higgins and much better than Alec).

In the 2011-12 season, Dre shot .380 from deep (2nd best on team behind Spencer).

In the 2012-13 season, Dre shot .328 from Deep (slightly trailing Spencer's .338).

When a guy doesn't take a high volume of 3s and the book on defending him is to keep him away from the rim, he can inflate his numbers quite a bit knocking down a few wide open shots. J-Hop is just like Dre. I'm worried that J-Hop's shooting will suffer by becoming much more of a focus for the defense instead of being a guy that the defense would lose track of.

 

[seattlebuff]

I love Tad, best coach we've ever had. Hope he stays forever.

But he's got a blind spot for recruiting the Heslip/Alford-type 3 pt spark plug shooter that it seems like every damn team in the country has, except us.

 

[FightCu1414]

In the 2010-11 season, Dre shot .343 from deep (better than Higgins and much better than Alec).

In the 2011-12 season, Dre shot .380 from deep (2nd best on team behind Spencer).

In the 2012-13 season, Dre shot .328 from Deep (slightly trailing Spencer's .338).

When a guy doesn't take a high volume of 3s and the book on defending him is to keep him away from the rim, he can inflate his numbers quite a bit knocking down a few wide open shots. J-Hop is just like Dre. I'm worried that J-Hop's shooting will suffer by becoming much more of a focus for the defense instead of being a guy that the defense would lose track of.

Good point. That said, J-Hop is averaging taking 1.9 three pointers per game averaging 17 minutes per game. Throughout his career, Andre attempted 1.36 threes per game in 28 minutes per game. I am not sure if they are that comparable.

 

[boydbuff]

Wow, if that is even close to how we are going to play the rest of the year, we are not going to make the NCAA Tourney. Likely headed for the NIT at this point. I know it is one game, and the 1st game after losing the Mayor, but we don't lose often at the Keg. Yes UCLA is a good team but we just didn't look like a very good team tonight.

Except for Booker and Scott, our offense was downright miserable.

 

[CVilleBuff]

Wow, if that is even close to how we are going to play the rest of the year, we are not going to make the NCAA Tourney. Likely headed for the NIT at this point. I know it is one game, and the 1st game after losing the Mayor, but we don't lose often at the Keg. Yes UCLA is a good team but we just didn't look like a very good team tonight.

Except for Booker and Scott, our offense was downright miserable.

XJ wakes up or this ship sinks.

 

[slider]

4-5 wins imo

 

[buffsyko]

Nit

 

[buffaholic]

I love Tad, best coach we've ever had. Hope he stays forever.

But he's got a blind spot for recruiting the Heslip/Alford-type 3 pt spark plug shooter that it seems like every damn team in the country has, except us.

Yeah, that has always puzzled me. Ski had an unbelievable night from deep, and that's the only thing that kept this from being a yawner.

 

[seattlebuff]

So hopefully the sunshine pumpers will see that "stepping up on defense" isn't going to cut it. UCLA shot 39% and 24% from 3 tonight. (They shoot 51% and 41% for the season.) And only a lights out night from Booker kept us from losing by 25+.

 

[cubuffs85]

So hopefully the sunshine pumpers will see that "stepping up on defense" isn't going to cut it. UCLA shot 39% and 24% from 3 tonight. (They shoot 51% and 41% for the season.) And only a lights out night from Booker kept us from losing by 25+.

Silverlining tonight was Booker's play, I was really impressed by what he did. Only at the end, did he get "trigger happy," which at that point didn't matter.

 

[jgisland]

So hopefully the sunshine pumpers will see that "stepping up on defense" isn't going to cut it. UCLA shot 39% and 24% from 3 tonight. (They shoot 51% and 41% for the season.) And only a lights out night from Booker kept us from losing by 25+.

I think the "sunshine pumpers" realize defense is the only way CU wins going forward, aka #TadBall- it's pretty obvious the offensive firepower isn't there to outgun teams, just like it hasn't been the past couple of years. Tad hasn't won games or earned the moniker #TadBall with his offensive beauty.

 

[seattlebuff]

I think the "sunshine pumpers" realize defense is the only way CU wins going forward, aka #TadBall- it's pretty obvious the offensive firepower isn't there to outgun teams, just like it hasn't been the past couple of years. Tad hasn't won games or earned the moniker #TadBall with his offensive beauty.

Who said we needed to "outgun" teams? We just need to be better than dead last in the conference in 3 pt shooting, which is what we are if you take Spencer's numbers out. Or 10th in shooting percentage. How about we aspire to bottom third, or heaven forbid, middle of the pack? That isn't "outgunning" people. Just being an average, competent jump shooting team. Then, with great defense, you win games.

We played good defense tonight, and really never had a chance to win ... at home.

 

[CVilleBuff]

Just curious what and where the sunshine pumping is. I've yet to see anything that suggests more than 20 or 21 wins. We're at 14. We face a host of bad and mediocre teams, starting with a bad one next game. Hardly out of the question to reach that. This is a mind ****, it's a mental challenge to accept what has happened and play ball as much as anything else. It starts with beating USC and getting confidence. Lose that and I'll accept the bottom completely falling out. Until then, I don't see this as a 16 win season

 

[Shldr2Shldr]

The amount of negativity around this team is astounding. They had 1 bad half against UW, that was entirely to be expected after what happened in the first. They had 1 bad offensive game against a loaded UCLA team that is figuring itself out, the defense kept the #6 scoring team in the nation to nearly 20pts below its average. The team has had 2 practices with the new rotation on which we are heavily counting on freshman. For all intents and purposes it might as well be November again. The team has got to figure out who to go to in different situations all over again. They have to figure out who will pass where and how they will do it. The freshman are learning roles that they were never intended to have this year. Even if we do lose to USC tomorrow I am still not declaring the season as lost. They need time to figure this out and they haven't had any so far. The "Bye Week" against Utah cannot get here soon enough.

 

[Goose]

The amount of negativity around this team is astounding. They had 1 bad half against UW, that was entirely to be expected after what happened in the first. They had 1 bad offensive game against a loaded UCLA team that is figuring itself out, the defense kept the #6 scoring team in the nation to nearly 20pts below its average. The team has had 2 practices with the new rotation on which we are heavily counting on freshman. For all intents and purposes it might as well be November again. The team has got to figure out who to go to in different situations all over again. They have to figure out who will pass where and how they will do it. The freshman are learning roles that they were never intended to have this year. Even if we do lose to USC tomorrow I am still not declaring the season as lost. They need time to figure this out and they haven't had any so far. The "Bye Week" against Utah cannot get here soon enough.

This, this, 100 times this.

EDIT - YMSSR. Someone hit him for me.

 

[SECOBuffsFan]

This, this, 100 times this.

EDIT - YMSSR. Someone hit him for me.

Done

 

[boydbuff]

That was a way better performance, against of course a much worse team. But those 2 games back to back are too small a sample size and too different to take much away from. However, as one of the eternal optimists on AB, I am trying to interpret this as Tad & Co. starting to find their way with game planning and rotations to generate more offense.

Obviously Booker played a very different game than we are used to from him and it made a real impact. Honestly I feel like our D is quite good (Tad never stops preaching that), and we are starting to figure out how to generate looks and distribute the ball w/o the Mayor. I still think we are going to have a lot of bad games against good conference teams on the road, but we may have just gotten our home court advantage back.

 

[CVilleBuff]

21 wins 10 losses is very obtainable. Not promising it but we can realistically get there if we take tad ball to heart

10 wins 8 losses PAC

@ ASU, Utah, Wazzu, Washington stretch is make or break. Need 3 wins from that

I have a feeling we get a little karma back against ASU at some point, be it on the road, in Boulder or in Vegas. A nice bubble crushing defeat in Vegas would be fair justice. It may take time, but we've built these goons up for being better than they are. I have my doubts of winning down there, but these Buffs will find a way to win a few roadies and a win wouldn't stun me at all . ASU doesn't realize just how motivated we are to beat their dirty, ****, nit program.

 

[Daaah]

Let's **** on ASU's floor!

 

[Ruckus]

The amount of negativity around this team is astounding. They had 1 bad half against UW, that was entirely to be expected after what happened in the first. They had 1 bad offensive game against a loaded UCLA team that is figuring itself out, the defense kept the #6 scoring team in the nation to nearly 20pts below its average. The team has had 2 practices with the new rotation on which we are heavily counting on freshman. For all intents and purposes it might as well be November again. The team has got to figure out who to go to in different situations all over again. They have to figure out who will pass where and how they will do it. The freshman are learning roles that they were never intended to have this year. Even if we do lose to USC tomorrow I am still not declaring the season as lost. They need time to figure this out and they haven't had any so far. The "Bye Week" against Utah cannot get here soon enough.

This might be the first basketball post of yours I agree with! Great post.

 

[MiamiBuffs]

The amount of negativity around this team is astounding. They had 1 bad half against UW, that was entirely to be expected after what happened in the first. They had 1 bad offensive game against a loaded UCLA team that is figuring itself out, the defense kept the #6 scoring team in the nation to nearly 20pts below its average. The team has had 2 practices with the new rotation on which we are heavily counting on freshman. For all intents and purposes it might as well be November again. The team has got to figure out who to go to in different situations all over again. They have to figure out who will pass where and how they will do it. The freshman are learning roles that they were never intended to have this year. Even if we do lose to USC tomorrow I am still not declaring the season as lost. They need time to figure this out and they haven't had any so far. The "Bye Week" against Utah cannot get here soon enough.

I think they stumble thru the next few games looking not so great. Then, down the stretch, the light comes on in the new rotation and we finish strong in conference on the back nine.

As a CU fan, this still sucks. I'd like the last 10 years of my life back. My rays of hope keep getting dashed.

 

[Jello Bear]

Let's **** on ASU's floor!

This might be the first basketball post of yours I agree with! Great post.


Sorry, kind of lazy tonight....

 

[Dark Bohner]

Just a random thought. I had to vent at least once about how pissed I am that we were on the cusp of the greatest season in CU basketball history and it ****ing folded like a cheap lawn chair when the Mayor went down. I was actually starting to believe that Colorado was about to become an established power. Now we are just some team on the outside looking in...again. I know bright days are likely ahead...blah blah blah, but what a ****ing piece of **** piece of bad luck. Oh well, maybe next year...

Venting done.