Rep Challenge: Who leads the Buffs in rushing this season?

[RK]

I pumped this poll in my Around the Herd post today, because I think this is a great question, there is not a bad answer out there.

I ended up going with Lindsay at 615, the way he plays just fires me up.

Here's the post if you want to check it out.

 

[Hugegroove]

I'm kind of in the same camp as DBT, if MM has a running back by committee, I don't see how any one of them could stand out from the rest. So I'm going with Lindsay hoping he can correct some of the fumbling issues he had last year. I believe he wants to prove to the coaching staff that he's the #1 back. O-line needs to stay healthy too.

 

[SECOBuffsFan]

I am going Atkins with about 650 yards

 

[goalline]

Adkins at 777

 

[leftybuff]

Baltazar-754

 

[Quattro]

Lindsay with 1000

Yeah, 1000.

 

[sackman]

Something about Carr has me intrigued. He reminds me of EB with those tree trunk legs and massive arms. I think we're going to have a hard time keeping him off the field.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

For sake of this thread I already said Baltazar was my pick to lead the team.

As far as the running game goes for 2015 and it correlating to team success, I think it's going to be and needs to be a major group effort. Last year our top 4 RBs rushed for 1,640 yards (total, not net yards) on 339 carries (4.8 ypc) which meant we averaged around 28 carries a game, compared to almost 42 passes/game. For this team to be successful (bowl game) in 2015, I think we need to have a more balanced attack and be upwards of 35-40 carries/game (450-500 total) for 2,400-2,500 yards.

A rushing output like that would put us firmly in the top 50 (FBS) in rushing for both attempts and yards (comparable to Utah or Washington from last year, ranked 39th and 40th respectively) and would create a more balanced attack for an offense that should be clicking with veteran players in their 3rd year in the system.

I think the breakdown should/will look something like this:

Baltazar - 700 yards on 125 carries
Powell - 500 yards on 100 carries
Lindsay - 500 yards on 95 carries
Carr - 400 yards on 80 carries
Adkins - 350 yards on 75 carries

 

[Darth Snow]

Disagree with analysis. It's not about balance as much as it is getting rid of the phantom yards. Sure we averaged 4.8ypc, but our running game was ineffective more often than not - see red zone failures and few TDS. We need a more explosive and effective running game. I don't care about balance. Balance will come if we start seeing more leads in the 4th and get effective in the RZ.

 

[scoob]

If Adkins or Powell lead this season, we are probably no better than last season. Carr - 2,056.

 

[leftybuff]

For sake of this thread I already said Baltazar was my pick to lead the team.

As far as the running game goes for 2015 and it correlating to team success, I think it's going to be and needs to be a major group effort. Last year our top 4 RBs rushed for 1,640 yards (total, not net yards) on 339 carries (4.8 ypc) which meant we averaged around 28 carries a game, compared to almost 42 passes/game. For this team to be successful (bowl game) in 2015, I think we need to have a more balanced attack and be upwards of 35-40 carries/game (450-500 total) for 2,400-2,500 yards.

A rushing output like that would put us firmly in the top 50 (FBS) in rushing for both attempts and yards (comparable to Utah or Washington from last year, ranked 39th and 40th respectively) and would create a more balanced attack for an offense that should be clicking with veteran players in their 3rd year in the system.

I think the breakdown should/will look something like this:

Baltazar - 700 yards on 125 carries
Powell - 500 yards on 100 carries
Lindsay - 500 yards on 95 carries
Carr - 400 yards on 80 carries
Adkins - 350 yards on 75 carries

:wow: A 25% yoy improvement for the top five rushers? I did not realize we played Nicholls St. 5 times next year.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Disagree with analysis. It's not about balance as much as it is getting rid of the phantom yards. Sure we averaged 4.8ypc, but our running game was ineffective more often than not - see red zone failures and few TDS. We need a more explosive and effective running game. I don't care about balance. Balance will come if we start seeing more leads in the 4th and get effective in the RZ.

To be an effective running team with average talent, it requires a dedication to the running game and a running mindset. They won't just be able to flip a switch to be effective and explosive. They are going to need to take the pressure off Sefo, which means running more and asking Sefo to throw less.

In 2014, Sefo actually threw the ball more often in the 1st and 2nd quarters than he did in the 3rd and 4th quarters. Of course, his inefficiencies came in the 2nd half of games, but the point is that the 2014 offense was extremely unbalanced from the start of games, not just when they dug a hole and had to pass to catch up.

 

[Darth Snow]

To be an effective running team with average talent, it requires a dedication to the running game and a running mindset. They won't just be able to flip a switch to be effective and explosive. They are going to need to take the pressure off Sefo, which means running more and asking Sefo to throw less.

In 2014, Sefo actually threw the ball more often in the 1st and 2nd quarters than he did in the 3rd and 4th quarters. Of course, his inefficiencies came in the 2nd half of games, but the point is that the 2014 offense was extremely unbalanced from the start of games, not just when they dug a hole and had to pass to catch up.

Trying to unpeel the layers of this disorganized mind here, but more ****ty running is not going to help Sefo. Instead, it will put him in more bad situations and cause more mistakes.

i.e., run better >>> run more.

 

[Duff Man]

You don't give five guys roughly the same amount of carries. Recipe for an ineffective running game.

 

[CUFan]

You don't give five guys roughly the same amount of carries. Recipe for an ineffective running game.

Completely. I want to see two to three guys separate themselves from the rest. We rely on them and throw the others the rest of the carries. And to Snow's point, we need this running game to be effective. As the running game goes, so this team will go.

PS I like Lindsay, Powell and Adkins, but I would love to see the newcomers earn most of the carries. All that means is the talent is getting better, at least at the RB position.

 

[scoob]

You don't give five guys roughly the same amount of carries. Recipe for an ineffective running game.

Unless we are going back to the bone. Looks similar to the 1987 team. I'd really like to see one back approach 200 carries again and hope it would be one of the new guys. Best case is that maybe one of the returnees get significant carries.

Edit: CUFan beat me to the punch and said better exactly what I was thinking.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

:wow: A 25% yoy improvement for the top five rushers? I did not realize we played Nicholls St. 5 times next year.

You forget we play an extra game in 2015. Our rushing totals were a joke last year and increasing the amount of carries per game by ~9 total, isn't that big a of a stretch. Also, the ypc averages for each of those hypothetical numbers are about on par with what they each put up in 2014, so when it's calculated out over the course of the year, the yards are about right.

You don't give five guys roughly the same amount of carries. Recipe for an ineffective running game.

This is a fair point, and I am aware of this. I was simply going off the distribution of carries from last year and projecting what I envision in 2015. I'm not saying all 5 RBs will see their average amount of carries per game. I'm taking injuries, learning curve and earning PT, going with the "hot hand", etc into consideration. I dont' expect Carr or Baltazar to see the bulk of the carries in the first half of the year, but their numbers could boost in the 2nd half as they get more comfortable in the offense and separate themselves from the other 3. Vice versa, I could see Powell and Adkins getting the early reps and then getting passed up for carries later.

This is just my opinion based on Lindgren and MM's distribution of carries from 2014 and projecting it out with 2 new guys. It's a crowded backfield, and while it'd be nice to see 1 or 2 guys completely separate themselves from the others, I just don't see that being how this staff wants to operate with their running game.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Trying to unpeel the layers of this disorganized mind here, but more ****ty running is not going to help Sefo. Instead, it will put him in more bad situations and cause more mistakes.

i.e., run better >>> run more.

Sigh. Once again a fail by you to add any value.

Your "run better >>> run more" is the same sort of no value-add as the "just recruit better" crowd. You don't just "run better". It starts with a mindset change and the willingness and dedication to run MORE. It's similar to the Broncos criticism in recent years that they were too reliant on the passing game and when they needed to run, they were completely ineffective. I laid out that stats that showed CU threw the ball more often when they were tied or were in closer games (1st half of games) than they did when they were in catch up mode. They didn't have any sort of commitment to running the football and they weren't very good at it. That is why, IMO, they need to make a concerted effort to run the ball more, thus eventually becoming more effective at it, taking the pressure off Sefo.

 

[Darth Snow]

Sigh. Once again a fail by you to add any value.

Your "run better >>> run more" is the same sort of no value-add as the "just recruit better" crowd. You don't just "run better". It starts with a mindset change and the willingness and dedication to run MORE. It's similar to the Broncos criticism in recent years that they were too reliant on the passing game and when they needed to run, they were completely ineffective. I laid out that stats that showed CU threw the ball more often when they were tied or were in closer games (1st half of games) than they did when they were in catch up mode. They didn't have any sort of commitment to running the football and they weren't very good at it. That is why, IMO, they need to make a concerted effort to run the ball more, thus eventually becoming more effective at it, taking the pressure off Sefo.

You would definitely fit right in with the local radio hosts on the fan with this kind of generic "analysis." So running more = running better in your mind, and there is no other way to do it. I disagree. I hope we run more this year, but for reasons other than the vain hope that running more will result in better running.

 

[Yung Buffalo]

I'm going to say Adkins at 850. I think Baltazaar could win the starting job though.


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[The Alabaster Yak]

You would definitely fit right in with the local radio hosts on the fan with this kind of generic "analysis." So running more = running better in your mind, and there is no other way to do it. I disagree. I hope we run more this year, but for reasons other than the vain hope that running more will result in better running.

If my analysis is "generic", what is yours? Non existent? All you've said (3 times now) is that they need to be "more effective and explosive" with no thoughts of your own as to how they will get there.

I stated that a veteran offensive group (and much improved OL) in their 3 year within the offensive system, coupled with a dedication to running the ball by the coaching staff, should have marked improvement on the running game, bringing balance and efficiency to the offense, making it better in 2015.

 

[Darth Snow]

If my analysis is "generic", what is yours? Non existent? All you've said (3 times now) is that they need to be "more effective and explosive" with no thoughts of your own as to how they will get there.

I stated that a veteran offensive group (and much improved OL) in their 3 year within the offensive system, coupled with a dedication to running the ball by the coaching staff, should have marked improvement on the running game, bringing balance and efficiency to the offense, making it better in 2015.

You realize your argument in the first paragraph can be turned on its head right? Where is your support for your position that running more = running better? Nowhere.

As for your second paragraph, sounds like the bolded is a great argument for why we will run more effectively, even if you are missing some factors. After that, you really trail off though.

You ever hit yourself on the head repeatedly and call it a fight? Cause that's how you argue.

 

[onealcd]

I think he was just trying to say that there needs to be a substantial commitment and attitude to running the ball for it to be effective which is a common thought among many college and pro football coaches. If our coaches don't believe it and try to instill that belief in the players then nothing is going to change.

 

[Darth Snow]

I think he was just trying to say that there needs to be a substantial commitment and attitude to running the ball for it to be effective which is a common thought among many college and pro football coaches. If our coaches don't believe it and try to instill that belief in the players then nothing is going to change.

Of course that's what he's saying. I've just not seen support for it.

 

[leftybuff]

You forget we play an extra game in 2015. Our rushing totals were a joke last year and increasing the amount of carries per game by ~9 total, isn't that big a of a stretch. Also, the ypc averages for each of those hypothetical numbers are about on par with what they each put up in 2014, so when it's calculated out over the course of the year, the yards are about right.



This is a fair point, and I am aware of this. I was simply going off the distribution of carries from last year and projecting what I envision in 2015. I'm not saying all 5 RBs will see their average amount of carries per game. I'm taking injuries, learning curve and earning PT, going with the "hot hand", etc into consideration. I dont' expect Carr or Baltazar to see the bulk of the carries in the first half of the year, but their numbers could boost in the 2nd half as they get more comfortable in the offense and separate themselves from the other 3. Vice versa, I could see Powell and Adkins getting the early reps and then getting passed up for carries later.

This is just my opinion based on Lindgren and MM's distribution of carries from 2014 and projecting it out with 2 new guys. It's a crowded backfield, and while it'd be nice to see 1 or 2 guys completely separate themselves from the others, I just don't see that being how this staff wants to operate with their running game.

No, I knew. 8% more game time. Look, I hope you are right, but IMO you are out on a limb here. Your analysis ignores other ball carriers. 22% of 2014 rushing yards came from people other than the top four rushers. If the top 5 in '15 rack up 2400 yards, there are going to be carries attributable to others. How do they factor in? Or do we just assume Shay Fields, D. Lee, Sefo, Gehrke, Frazier, Spruce and Bobo will never rush the ball. Or do we further assume they will (which means more than just the additional 9 carries per game). If they are anywhere near the 20% production they represented in '14, now you are making the case the team will rush for over 2600 yards, behind an OL that, ahem, was not exactly parting the Red Sea, minus two starters to boot.

Every ballcarrier you list equals or exceeds 5.0 ypc, except Adkins at 4.66 ypc, in your prediction, when only one player met or exceeded 5.0 ypc (Pow at 5.27 ypc) last year. 2600 yards would have made CU the #38 rushing team for the year last year. They were #85. Totally reasonable to assume they will jump 50 spots and average more ypc than 80 other DI teams did last year. But hey, its the off season. Believe what you want.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

No, I knew. 8% more game time. Look, I hope you are right, but IMO you are out on a limb here. Your analysis ignores other ball carriers. 22% of 2014 rushing yards came from people other than the top four rushers. If the top 5 in '15 rack up 2400 yards, there are going to be carries attributable to others. How do they factor in? Or do we just assume Shay Fields, D. Lee, Sefo, Gehrke, Frazier, Spruce and Bobo will never rush the ball. Or do we further assume they will (which means more than just the additional 9 carries per game). If they are anywhere near the 20% production they represented in '14, now you are making the case the team will rush for over 2600 yards, behind an OL that, ahem, was not exactly parting the Red Sea, minus two starters to boot.

Every ballcarrier you list equals or exceeds 5.0 ypc, except Adkins at 4.66 ypc, in your prediction, when only one player met or exceeded 5.0 ypc (Pow at 5.27 ypc) last year. 2600 yards would have made CU the #38 rushing team for the year last year. They were #85. Totally reasonable to assume they will jump 50 spots and average more ypc than 80 other DI teams did last year. But hey, its the off season. Believe what you want.

My numbers still only reflect about a 9 carry total increase per game for the 5 RBs I listed, assuming the rushing workload for our WRs, QBs, and Punters doesn't change much from 2014 (105 carries for 251 yards). Again, I don't see how that assumption is that much of a stretch to get us to the rushing attempts I projected. Obviously, those 9 plays would have to be taken from the amount of passing plays run, but with an average of 28 runs to 42 passes last year, that would put the run/pass ratio around 37/33; a ratio that I believe is more conducive to success for this team than having Sefo sling it around all game.

Powell, Lindsay and Adkins averaged 5.2, 4.95 and 4.91 ypc last year, respectively. Is it that much of a stretch to say that the improvement of these RBs (assuming they do improve) and an improved OL (according to so many around here) could lead to them averaging at or just over 5 ypc?

If the rushing workload increases to around 9 more total RB carries/game, it would work out to be 117 more carries for 573 more rushing yards, when a jump of about 700-745 yards is needed to get us to the 2,600 yard mark. So I guess my numbers were ambitious by around 130-175 (depending on where you get your stats) total rushing yards.

 

[leftybuff]

My numbers still only reflect about a 9 carry total increase per game for the 5 RBs I listed, assuming the rushing workload for our WRs, QBs, and Punters doesn't change much from 2014 (105 carries for 251 yards). Again, I don't see how that assumption is that much of a stretch to get us to the rushing attempts I projected. Obviously, those 9 plays would have to be taken from the amount of passing plays run, but with an average of 28 runs to 42 passes last year, that would put the run/pass ratio around 37/33; a ratio that I believe is more conducive to success for this team than having Sefo sling it around all game.

Powell, Lindsay and Adkins averaged 5.2, 4.95 and 4.91 ypc last year, respectively. Is it that much of a stretch to say that the improvement of these RBs (assuming they do improve) and an improved OL (according to so many around here) could lead to them averaging at or just over 5 ypc?

If the rushing workload increases to around 9 more total RB carries/game, it would work out to be 117 more carries for 573 more rushing yards, when a jump of about 700-745 yards is needed to get us to the 2,600 yard mark. So I guess my numbers were ambitious by around 130-175 (depending on where you get your stats) total rushing yards.

Well, I still think you are being overly optimistic. Having said that, I hope you are right because that would mean CU will have a pretty good season. If CU rushes that well, it would be hard for them to win fewer than 5-6 games.

 

[Deleted member 807]

Big bruisers Balthazar and Powell slug it out for most rushing TDs. Balthazar picks up 5 TDs vs 4 for Powell. Their production is down due to a platoon and limited use on short yardage situations. Each gets their 400 yards.

Most rushing yards goes to Adkins, who picks up a pair of 100 yard rushing games and ~ 600 yards on the year.

Lindsey ~ 300 yards

Total CU rushing yardage in a pass happy offense is under 2000 yards

Flash Gordon red shirts and Carr is used sparingly.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Of course that's what he's saying. I've just not seen support for it.

#1 (rushing yards rank) Ga Tech - 790 Att
#3 (rushing yards rank) Wisconsin - 648 Att
#5 (rushing yards rank) Ohio State - 690 Att
#10 (rushing yards rank) Oregon - 644 Att

All 4 of those teams were also in the top 13 in yards per carry, so they were not only running the ball more often than everybody else, but they were much better at it than everybody else. Each one of those teams has a commitment to the running game that has been instilled in the players, from the coaching staffs, and is reflected in the play calling. CU, on the other hand, rushed for 451 attempts (88th) for 4.1 YPC (82nd). You don't think there's any sort of correlation between running more and being better and more efficient when doing so?

 

[sackman]

I find it interesting that we seem to be all over the board as to who will take over. Balthazar, Adkins, Lindsay, Powell, Carr - each has been mentioned as a guy who can/will do great things.

I'm not sure if that's good or not. I suppose it is. My instinct tells me that we better hope one of the new guys breaks through and establishes himself as an every-down back. Our running game has been pretty average with guys like Adkins, Lindsay and Powell, even with what should have been a pretty solid OL last year. I tend to think our running game has suffered not because of bad OL play, but because of mediocre running back play. That's probably why I hope we see one of the new guys step up. My money is on Carr (which means, of course, he'll be stuck around 6th on the depth chart).