Researching A Theory

[Buffnik]

Also, the bias may be a good thing at times. If I were a recruiting analyst at Rivals and had a particular player ranked as the #2 WR in Texas but then saw that none of the top programs were offering and also heard that he wasn't considered to be all that good (no academic or character issues accounting for the lack of interest)... then I'd have a decision to make.

Do I stick to my guns and maintain my rating? That seems arrogant and maybe unrealistic.

Do I drop the kid down with my rating? That seems to negate my own scouting and turn my rating into something anyone could do.

It's a difficult thing. What I often see is that there are usually a few guys that the analysts feel strongly about (one way or the other) and you'll see significant variance between different rating sites. But it ends up being kind of like the AP voting on team rankings. You see where everyone else is rating guys and let that form the outline of where you are at. Then, you make minor adjustments along with a bold call or two to account for your own opinion.

 

[aeroxx]

Excellent point Nik.

To generalize, there is a huge difference between a group of analysts making independent assessments (with no knowledge of the others), and the group members making decisions while interacting with one another. It becomes a problem of game theory, where perception and tiny differences in initial conditions generate or lock-in suboptimal outcomes.

This could also be examined as a collective-action problem in economics, but hopefully that isn't necessary to see the craziness and the incentives at work.

 

[moett88]

In looking at the potential market out there, are there many scouting services that offer high quality material to depict players' skills? Most of the films I see uploaded to YouTube are grainy, the kids are hard to see, footwork/mechanics difficult to decipher. It would be yeoman's work to get high quality product produced and posted; but, I believe that big time high schools, well-to-do parents, and FBS programs would pay a premium to have a service that can help focus recruiting efforts.

Excellent point! Thank you and I will add that to the list.

 

[moett88]

As usual you guys give me great information and points to consider. I thought about having to look at trends on each of the major sites and do a breakdown so parents can understand what is important from each and judge them accordingly. Might be taking on alot for this one. As Nik was saying sometimes it just comes down to analysts just like who they like and will preserve their ranking no matter what, which of course then pushes people to network and "smooze" to improve stock. That can be a dangerous think cause the expectations for blue chip recruits at a certain level are major.

 

[jahbrahakala]

What I want to know

What I want to know is how 4 star db's and athletes who have pretty well documented 11.5/11.6 100 meter times are listed with 4.5/4.4 40's on Rivals. It's weird science.

 

[Buffnik]

What I want to know is how 4 star db's and athletes who have pretty well documented 11.5/11.6 100 meter times are listed with 4.5/4.4 40's on Rivals. It's weird science.

Rivals notes when a 40 time is event verified. Otherwise, it's self reported.

 

[jahbrahakala]

I'd say they are definately self reported and it's weird science;-)

 

[Burrito]

'87 CO DE Burrito Palazzo

Rivals
Scout
ESPN
247 Sports

Boulder H.S. Boulder, CO

Ht: 5-foot-11 3/4
Wt: 250-260...
40: 4.3 secs

Rivals rating: *rr; unranked DE
Scout rating: *; #794 DE
ESPN rating: * 673 grade; #907 DE
247s rating: *-581 rating; unranked DE

Reported Offers: Eastern Arizona College, "Touch it"


​Self reported.

 

[patebuff]

Will be tough to beat out Eastern Arizona.