If we're lucky.:saythat:
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Roster next year
- Thread starter letsgoavs192
- Start date
If we're lucky.:saythat:
FLounder
Think Positive and life will be Positive.
We need him.
jgisland
Club Member
This was in Thorburn's chat on Wednesday. There have been lots of rumors on SHT and Adams status but this was the first I have seen anybody say definitively they are on track to graduate in May.
They'll have to make two scholarships available with only one senior (Chen) leaving and three freshmen coming in. Jeremy Adams and Harris-Tunks will graduate in May. Ben Mills might decide to finish up at a smaller school like Shannon Sharpe did. They will make room somehow. Scholarships are a year-by-year proposition.
They'll have to make two scholarships available with only one senior (Chen) leaving and three freshmen coming in. Jeremy Adams and Harris-Tunks will graduate in May. Ben Mills might decide to finish up at a smaller school like Shannon Sharpe did. They will make room somehow. Scholarships are a year-by-year proposition.
jcatcher
Club Member
NBA Draft.net has taken Roberson out of their 2013 mock draft and put him in 2014, along with Spencer Dinwiddie, who they have going at #11! (Dre is at 27.) DraftExpress still has Dre going in 2013 (6th pick in the second round) and Spencer in 2014 at #15 in the second round. Draft Express hasn't updated it's drafts for a couple of weeks, though.
It's going to be very interesting to see who steps up to the mic on senior day this year. Will it just be Chen or will he have company?
I'm going to chalk this comment up to pure ignorance. If we "need" Simba, we're in bad, bad shape.
Simba can jump out the gym man and he rebounds like Olajuwon, what ru guys watching?
jcatcher
Club Member
Then we're in bad, bad shape. You can't play major college basketball with one guy (who doesn't jump) at 6'10" and a couple of 6'8" freshmen and sophomores. Does not work.
What you hope for is that you can grab a transfer who could step in. A great example would be a guy like Nephawe, a junior from NMSU. He's like 6'10" and 265 lbs. Scores about 7ppg while pulling down around 5 boards. From South Africa. Maybe in position to graduate. He was getting starter minutes until recently, but this 7'5" freshman the Lobos have is now getting all the PT at C. Just using him as an example of what Tad is probably looking for if, for example, we have Adams & Tunks graduate alongside Chen and then Mills decides to transfer to open up an extra scholarship.
jcatcher
Club Member
Unless he's graduated and given a release from NM, he isn't going to be eligible next year.
That's what I'm saying. We'd be looking for a guy who plays the post and has graduated. Release wouldn't matter. We'd just need to have a graduate program the other school doesn't and get the guy accepted to it. I just used Nephawe as the first example I could think of. He's like 23 or 24 years old and an international player. Maybe he's going to graduate this spring. I have no idea. Talking about the principle, not the specific. Like how Zona needed a PG and got Mark Lyons for this season.
I guess I don't see the panic over Shane leaving. Sure, he's big, but he's an 8 mpg player, and that keeps dropping. Defensively, we're better off with Dre in the post than SHT most nights. Offensively, he's a complete non-factor. And even though Gordon is about 2 inches shorter, he should replace most of what we lose with Shane's size. Will we be small next year if he leaves? Sure. But I hardly think it's the end of our season if he doesn't come back.
OUBuff
American
The SHT love amazes me.
SHT averages 8.4 min/game and those minutes are seldom during times when the game in on the line. Face it, when Scott was out of the line-up last week, SHT had only 5 minutes. If he were so crucial to the Buff's future success, why wouldn't he have filled the vacuum left at the post?
Honestly, he is our #1 player because he averages about 1 point, 1 rebound, 1 personal foul, 1 turn over, .1 assists and .1 blocks per game. He should be a physical player that should commit more than 1 foul per game. He attempts less than 1 FT attempt a game so he is not drawing fouls either. Not an aggressive basketball player.
SHT has below average coordination for a Div I basketball player, is slow and lacks aggressiveness and strength around the basket. OBTW, he doesn't jump either. A guy his size should be able to be a presence in the post but he has never shown the abilty. I would love to see him be a productive player against other team goons, but I just don't see it happening. If SHT were better, it would have been SHT throwing B---sky down to the court not Scott getting wacked.
The absence of SHT next year doesn't worry me at all... he has basically been absent all year anyway.
Gordon. Or go small 10-12 minutes like we did against Utah, pick up the pressure, and force teams into turnovers. We'll have the depth to go that route. A lineup of Dinwiddie, Hopkins, Fletcher, XJ, and Dre would all be between 6'5" and 6'7" and very athletic. They could put a lot pressure on teams.
OUBuff
American
A Big to suck up minutes next year and give a starter some rest is preferred, but I don't think that Big needs to be SHT. There should be options that become available in the off-season that would be better than standing pat.
I did like the small line-up that they used against Utah. It really created pressure and would be a great change of pace during a game.
Curious, is there a +/- stat in basketball, like in hockey? It would be interesting to see if the differential increases or decreases when a player is on the court.
I did like the small line-up that they used against Utah. It really created pressure and would be a great change of pace during a game.
Curious, is there a +/- stat in basketball, like in hockey? It would be interesting to see if the differential increases or decreases when a player is on the court.
jwhite17
Member
Ideally we would want a 7ft 260lbs beast that can run the floor but those are hard to find..thanks is a good guy but doesn't fit Boyles system at all. We need a big that can run the floor (ie josh Scott).next year will be Boyles first year with depth ,talent, and experience at every spot, based on the news that tunks and Adams are done and mills might move on, we should be able to press teams and kill them even more at home with the five new players. If roberson moves on, I would love for Boyle to copy altman and bring in a immediate impact 5th transfer , there has to be a few of those guys out there...
The problem is that we need somebody to play against other teams bigs, a guy who can and will push and shove and play the physical game. In a number of our losses this year we have been significantly hurt by guys who aren't that good but who just beat us up inside.
I respect SHT because he has been a good Buff who works hard and represents us well but he has shown he isn't that guy. In the games where we have been pushed around SHT has been among those who has been pushed around. We assume because he is bigger and stronger than anyone else we have playing that he is a banger but he isn't, he is more a finesse player without the skills to compete at this level.
Despite his size he doesn't give us a physical presence this year and I haven't seen anything to indicate that he will next year either.
I did see Gordon play in HS. While he was clearly physically dominant against HS level players he is a guy who didn't shy away from contact and didn't let people push him around. He was already more solid in the body than Scott and if he has added 10-20lbs during his RS year he could add some toughness that we don't have this year. Add to that Scott building up in the off-season as well, even if it is only 10lbs and some strength work he will be better equiped as well.
We still won't have a guy to match up to the 260+ lb. guys and if space comes open I wouldn't mind seeing Tad bring in a roll player who could help there but I think that is more wishfull thinking on our parts than priority on Tad's part.
I respect SHT because he has been a good Buff who works hard and represents us well but he has shown he isn't that guy. In the games where we have been pushed around SHT has been among those who has been pushed around. We assume because he is bigger and stronger than anyone else we have playing that he is a banger but he isn't, he is more a finesse player without the skills to compete at this level.
Despite his size he doesn't give us a physical presence this year and I haven't seen anything to indicate that he will next year either.
I did see Gordon play in HS. While he was clearly physically dominant against HS level players he is a guy who didn't shy away from contact and didn't let people push him around. He was already more solid in the body than Scott and if he has added 10-20lbs during his RS year he could add some toughness that we don't have this year. Add to that Scott building up in the off-season as well, even if it is only 10lbs and some strength work he will be better equiped as well.
We still won't have a guy to match up to the 260+ lb. guys and if space comes open I wouldn't mind seeing Tad bring in a roll player who could help there but I think that is more wishfull thinking on our parts than priority on Tad's part.
Agreed Mtn. We'll also be deeper and more balanced next year. If teams start to push us around inside, we'll have the athletes on the wing and the shooters to counter it.
Part of the reason that bigs have given us so much trouble this year is because this is a team of slashers. Outside of the Mayor, we don't have a consistent outside threat to shoot over the defense when they pack into the lane. With Jenkins and Thomas coming in next year, we should have the shooters we need to extend the defense and open things up inside, even if we are at a size disadvantage. Honestly, I've been surprised at how well we've played this year considering our only post presence weighs 215 and we are, at best, an average shooting team.
Part of the reason that bigs have given us so much trouble this year is because this is a team of slashers. Outside of the Mayor, we don't have a consistent outside threat to shoot over the defense when they pack into the lane. With Jenkins and Thomas coming in next year, we should have the shooters we need to extend the defense and open things up inside, even if we are at a size disadvantage. Honestly, I've been surprised at how well we've played this year considering our only post presence weighs 215 and we are, at best, an average shooting team.
jgisland
Club Member
Even if they are a more balanced team they still won't have any post presence outside of Scott. Gordon is not a back to the basket post player, so even if they have guys that can shoot and stretch the floor there won't be anybody outside of Scott that can force a double and give Jenkins or Thomas the room to get off good shots. Even though post presence isn't nearly as important or as big of a part of the game as it has historically been, it still opens up the game. And as Mtn states, we still need somebody to defend other teams bigs.
SHT makes me cringe as much as everybody else when he comes into , but he is a big body and big bodies have value in basketball. CU is an average team compared to other NCAA teams in terms of effective height this year, but the P12 is ridiculously tall and CU is last in the conference in terms of effective height (height in terms of minutes played).
We can only hope for a big body to transfer in.
SHT makes me cringe as much as everybody else when he comes into , but he is a big body and big bodies have value in basketball. CU is an average team compared to other NCAA teams in terms of effective height this year, but the P12 is ridiculously tall and CU is last in the conference in terms of effective height (height in terms of minutes played).
We can only hope for a big body to transfer in.
OK, so I'm obviously in the minority here, and arguing against a number of posters I have a lot of respect for, so I'm pretty sure I'm wrong, but I still don't see that our size (or lack thereof) next year will be a fatal blow. All things being equal, I think there are players who are more expendable and I'd rather have Shane on the roster than not next year, but I just don't think it hurts us much to lose him. As important as size is, it's more important to have athleticism and basketball skill, and we'll be much improved on both fronts next year, with or without SHT or a similar big.
Also, the Pac-12 does feature a number of big bodies, but again, I'm not sure most of them are good basketball players. A quick glance at rosters shows 10 players listed at 7' or taller in the conference. There are several listed at 6'11, but very few that contribute regularly. Tony Woods and Waverly Austin of Oregon are probably the two biggest contributors, so I'll include them. That leaves 12 7-foorters (or close to) in the conference. Of those 12, 3 (including our own Ben Mills) are virtual non-factors, playing less than 10mpg. Of the 9 players playing more than 10 mpg, there is exactly 1 player averaging in double-digit scoring and 1 player averaging more than 7 rpg. In both cases, it's N'Diaye at Washington, who's averaging exactly 10 points per game and 9.5 rebounds. Woods and Buchynski are around 9.5 ppg and there are a few guys around 6.5 rpg, but those numbers are far from dominant.
Finally, while I agree that Scott is our only post scorer who would command a double-team, that's pretty much the way of the world in college basketball these days. There are very few teams with multiple post scorers. In fact, there are a TON of teams (some of them very good) who would kill to have a single post scorer of Scott's ability. Gordon should at least be a solid defender with his length and athleticism and I could see him averaging something like 6 points and 4 boards in 15 minutes next year, which would be a really nice contribution. Assuming Dre returns (which is probably the key assumption here), he can guard a majority of the bigs in the conference too.
As a point of comparison, since they've been discussed at length in other threads, look at CVille's UVA team. They're an up-and-coming team who utilizes their athleticism and depth on defense and are a borderline tournament team this year that should be a top-25 team next year. And the only guy taller than 6'8" on their roster is a 6'11" freshman averaging 13.5 mpg. That scarcity of bigs will also make it harder to find a solid contributor on the transfer market next year. I just don't see us landing a 6'10-7' big man who can consistently draw a double-team in the post and play solid post defense in 10-12 minutes of action.
Anyway, just my thoughts and I've probably beat this to death, but I think we'll see a different style of basketball next season. Nik's mentioned the 40 Minutes of Hell defense, and those Arkansas teams weren't particularly big either. I think we'll see something more similar to that next season, rather than trying to play a more traditional center at all times.
Also, the Pac-12 does feature a number of big bodies, but again, I'm not sure most of them are good basketball players. A quick glance at rosters shows 10 players listed at 7' or taller in the conference. There are several listed at 6'11, but very few that contribute regularly. Tony Woods and Waverly Austin of Oregon are probably the two biggest contributors, so I'll include them. That leaves 12 7-foorters (or close to) in the conference. Of those 12, 3 (including our own Ben Mills) are virtual non-factors, playing less than 10mpg. Of the 9 players playing more than 10 mpg, there is exactly 1 player averaging in double-digit scoring and 1 player averaging more than 7 rpg. In both cases, it's N'Diaye at Washington, who's averaging exactly 10 points per game and 9.5 rebounds. Woods and Buchynski are around 9.5 ppg and there are a few guys around 6.5 rpg, but those numbers are far from dominant.
Finally, while I agree that Scott is our only post scorer who would command a double-team, that's pretty much the way of the world in college basketball these days. There are very few teams with multiple post scorers. In fact, there are a TON of teams (some of them very good) who would kill to have a single post scorer of Scott's ability. Gordon should at least be a solid defender with his length and athleticism and I could see him averaging something like 6 points and 4 boards in 15 minutes next year, which would be a really nice contribution. Assuming Dre returns (which is probably the key assumption here), he can guard a majority of the bigs in the conference too.
As a point of comparison, since they've been discussed at length in other threads, look at CVille's UVA team. They're an up-and-coming team who utilizes their athleticism and depth on defense and are a borderline tournament team this year that should be a top-25 team next year. And the only guy taller than 6'8" on their roster is a 6'11" freshman averaging 13.5 mpg. That scarcity of bigs will also make it harder to find a solid contributor on the transfer market next year. I just don't see us landing a 6'10-7' big man who can consistently draw a double-team in the post and play solid post defense in 10-12 minutes of action.
Anyway, just my thoughts and I've probably beat this to death, but I think we'll see a different style of basketball next season. Nik's mentioned the 40 Minutes of Hell defense, and those Arkansas teams weren't particularly big either. I think we'll see something more similar to that next season, rather than trying to play a more traditional center at all times.
Great post, mattrob.
We could use another post. But I'm more concerned about being able to alter shots and help us control the defensive class than I am about finding a bulky plodder to match up with the other bulky plodders in the league. If a scholarship comes available, what I really want is a 22- or 23-year old Wes Gordon to fill the gap for a year.
We could use another post. But I'm more concerned about being able to alter shots and help us control the defensive class than I am about finding a bulky plodder to match up with the other bulky plodders in the league. If a scholarship comes available, what I really want is a 22- or 23-year old Wes Gordon to fill the gap for a year.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
I also look back to two UVA teams, 2001 and 2007. Both had no big men. They had a 6'7 guy like Dre in '01 and a 6'8 dude with a fu manchu mustache in '07. Those teams got out and ran, and both were top 20 teams. 2001 eventually succumbed by 1 on a last second basket to a team placed 7 seeds too low by the name of Gonzaga, 2007 won the ACC regular season.
jgisland
Club Member
Mattrob - I think we are arguing semantics to a large degree, I couldn't agree with this ^^^ anymore if I tried. SHT isn't the key to next year's team nor is any other big body we most likely bring in. And you are certainly right, CU is going to be much more athletic and have more basketball skill, no arguments here. I don't necessarily think you have to have a ton of bigs to be successful, but if Scott wasn't there this year, scoring could be interesting in the half court offense.
And that leads me to:
I hope you are right (for my own sanity) that we see a different style of basketball next season. Because if we see this "offense" for another year with no inside outside game, no movement, lack of pick and rolls I don't know how successful CU will be. With all of the talent at the wings we will have next year there has to be movement on the offensive end for them to utilize their talents.
jgisland
Club Member
I agree with this as well, but CU needs to stop talking about getting out and running and actually do it. Next year they will be built for it even more than this year, so maybe "next year" is the year. They are 10th in the conference in temp, only Utah and WSU play at a slower pace. Playing at altitude with the athletes that CU has and with the rebounding ability of Dre there is no reason that they can't send 2 guys to the boards most of the time and get guys leaking out ready to start the break with numbers.
jg, my biggest hope is that we aren't running as much this year due in large part to the minutes the starters are playing. With Dre, Ski and Mayor all averaging over 32 minutes, it may just be too much to ask them to consistently apply pressure on the defensive end and push the tempo offensively. We've already seen times this year where guys have looked completely gassed in the 2nd half. With more depth in the future, that could be less of an issue. I'll say I'm cautiously optimistic that's the case.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Agree completely that it's time to stop the talk and actually do it. Next year is the perfect time for that, but i'll believe it when I see it.
Part of the issue is that no one in the conference wants to run with us. Only exception is UCLA because they have the speed to match us. Everyone else learned their lesson when Washington came into Boulder for the opener last year, tried to run, and we beat them by 20.
Other things playing into pace are our non-conference opponents this year. Whey you play Fresno State, Wyoming, Dayton, etc. your possessions average is going to get sucked down.
Beyond that, it is also on us. There are times the Buffs push off of the other team's made baskets or release off the other team's shot. But with so little depth and so much onus put on playing great defense, I think the team ends up taking their rests on offense a lot of the time.
Other things playing into pace are our non-conference opponents this year. Whey you play Fresno State, Wyoming, Dayton, etc. your possessions average is going to get sucked down.
Beyond that, it is also on us. There are times the Buffs push off of the other team's made baskets or release off the other team's shot. But with so little depth and so much onus put on playing great defense, I think the team ends up taking their rests on offense a lot of the time.
Our offensive possessions tend to either result in an attempt at a transition hoop or we burn most of the shot clock, and we tend to do a lot of standing while we are burning clock.
I don't think this is what Tad wants and his UNC teams and first Buff team didn't do this but nik and others may be right about the lack of depth causing guys to rest on offense.
I don't think this is what Tad wants and his UNC teams and first Buff team didn't do this but nik and others may be right about the lack of depth causing guys to rest on offense.
I agree it's depth as to why we aren't playing at a break neck pace. It looks like that's what Boyle is recruiting to tho. Next year, we'll see alot of it I'm guessing. All that said, I'd like to see more of it in spurts this year. The more easy baskets you can get, the better, especially at tourney time.