Used to be called the SWC (+Arky)
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Schadenfreude or Horror story? Texas dreams of the Pac
- Thread starter Darth Snow
- Start date
the forces moving to mega-conferences may be bigger than the desires of the original pac 8. remember that those guys didn't want to change up the rose bowl and let it be a part of the bowl series either but the possibility of being left out in the cold as a conference changed their minds.
there is already a strong movement underway among the major conferences to form an alternative to the ncaa. this alternative governing body (which would likely include only about the top 60-80 schools that already generate massive tv revenue) would be the prime mover in conference realignment. the p12 will not want and it will not allow itself to be left behind if this gathers steam.
you'll have something like the p12, the b10(14), the sec, the b12, the big least, the acc, and notre dame on the inside. the rest of the nation would be very questionable.
once they work to unify under a new governing org (and re-do the tv rights), they will seek to harmonize the conferences to make it more like the nfl (with conferences, divisions, and playoffs).
but, this is all the end game. as an interim, you may see some crazy ****, like the p12 going to 16 or even 20 teams (with big tv powers like ut) so that it can increase its bargaining position when the whole thing starts to flow toward an nfl style reorg. texas is a very nice chip to have in these types of negotiations for the p12, even if they have to hold their noses and take some dregs like baylor and tech in the interim.
this is just my fearless prediction, however. and it will probably take 20 years. if it even happens.
there is already a strong movement underway among the major conferences to form an alternative to the ncaa. this alternative governing body (which would likely include only about the top 60-80 schools that already generate massive tv revenue) would be the prime mover in conference realignment. the p12 will not want and it will not allow itself to be left behind if this gathers steam.
you'll have something like the p12, the b10(14), the sec, the b12, the big least, the acc, and notre dame on the inside. the rest of the nation would be very questionable.
once they work to unify under a new governing org (and re-do the tv rights), they will seek to harmonize the conferences to make it more like the nfl (with conferences, divisions, and playoffs).
but, this is all the end game. as an interim, you may see some crazy ****, like the p12 going to 16 or even 20 teams (with big tv powers like ut) so that it can increase its bargaining position when the whole thing starts to flow toward an nfl style reorg. texas is a very nice chip to have in these types of negotiations for the p12, even if they have to hold their noses and take some dregs like baylor and tech in the interim.
this is just my fearless prediction, however. and it will probably take 20 years. if it even happens.
It is official now. Junk is a friggin genius and no friggin way Texas should even be given a sniff wrt the Pac-12.
YMSSR.
Now, we only need '96 to join us and we will have a true arsenal.
The only way the PAC expands is if the schools coming in generate more money for the conference than they cost in payouts. UT does that bringing multiple large TV markets and a national following. OU is also a school with a national following and dominates TV sets in its own state as well as drawing stongly in Texas and surrounding states.
From there pickings get slim. Okie State duplicates what you already get with OU, TT doesn't bring anything UT doesn't already bring. The Kansas schools don't bring big TV ratings.
Baylor isn't a big conference revenue producer and the PAC wouldn't take them if they were because of their academic standing, history of cheating, and biggest their church affiliation.
Hey dummy. Bookmark Junks post as well. We will have to wait on 96.
If this happens for football, I will be in favor of a new governing body separate from the NCAA on 1 condition: it means that football is exempted from Title IX scholarship calculations and a school like CU could offer Men's Soccer, Men's Tennis, Men's Volleyball and Men's Lacrosse to balance up with our Women's sports.
All that stuff can happen with the Pac staying at 12 schools. There's no reason to expand. I keep hearing that the Pac will "have no choice". I don't see that. In fact, I think the Pac is in a perfect spot right as it is. Nobody can force the Pac to do anything, and they will swing a big stick regardless of how big the other conferences become.
I don't think that was liver's point. The Pac-12 is certainly strong enough to stand pat and have a seat at the table. But if you take the current Pac-12 membership and add OU and UT to it, now we're talking about the conference directing what the future will be rather than just having a voice and getting an invite. The population, institution prestige and media power would be off the charts.
Junction
Club Member
For 10 years, until somehow UT and OU have managed to convince themselves that they're bigger than the conference and start burning it to the ground...
This ^^^^^^
The new governing body is not going to do anything without having the western half of the country included. The PAC presidents aren't likely to have a bunch of schools forced down their throats just to make things "balanced."
this isn't correct. it is going to be about ratings. the number of tv households in your footprint will be far more meaningful in the negotiations than some sentimentality for the good old days. the pac is not under an immediate pressure to expand, but things can go quickly. remember that they were fully prepared to hold their noses and go to 16 to get texas and ou, only a couple of years ago.
those kids in texass, expressing the possibility of the b12 totally dissolving aren't insane. the schools most likely to get screwed are kjuco state, iowa state. ku is in danger of getting screwed too. tcu and tech and baylor may be able to jock ride the shorthorns into the p12. we will see. ou and okie state might go as a pair to the sec. stranger things have happened.
Bull. It wouldn't be any different. And then we'd be dealing with a lot of political garbage from within. We're better off without them, and I'm pretty sure the rest of the schools in the Pac 12 fully understand this concept.
The problem is that OU and UT are never happy just to be a part of a conference, they want to run it. The PAC is smart enough to see that looking at the history of the last two conferences that UT was involved in. The other part is that UT and OU don't come on their own, they come as a package deal with their lackeys riding along.
we're talking past each other here. i agree we're better off without them in the current world. but, when you talk about tv contracts and mega-conferences and a new alternative to the ncaa, then you need to look at leverage and bargaining position. larry scott will have elephant sized testicles in that process if he has ut and ou in his pocket.
SuperiorBuff
Well-Known Member
Exactly, they own the only major growth time zone left.
Too many moving parts. Not enough money to the table on a per-school basis. If, as you claim, UT would bring along OU, Tech, OSU, whoever, the incremental increase in payouts would not be sufficient to justify dealing with UT's conference killing tendencies.
Just. Say. No.
Or, as James T Kirk said when he was informed by Spock that without their help, the Klingons would all die... "Let them die".
I don't see how a 16-school Pac has any more clout with OU and UT in it than a 12-school Pac has without them.
At the end of the day, if the Big 12 disintegrates, UT will look to re-form the SWC, which is basically what they have now anyway, except they have to deal with outliers like West Virginia. UT doesn't play well with others, and I tend to think they'd be as disinterested in getting pushed around by the wine and cheese crowd in San Francisco as we are in dealing with them.
At the end of the day, if the Big 12 disintegrates, UT will look to re-form the SWC, which is basically what they have now anyway, except they have to deal with outliers like West Virginia. UT doesn't play well with others, and I tend to think they'd be as disinterested in getting pushed around by the wine and cheese crowd in San Francisco as we are in dealing with them.
just wishing it away won't make it go away. it will get very fluid, very fast, if this stuff starts to move again. gathering up bargaining chips will be in the pac12's interests long term. they've been salivating over ut for years and years. tech and baylor don't belong in the same conversation academically, culturally, or athletically, but don't be surprised what price the p12 might be willing to pay for ut.
if the b12 needs 8 votes to dissolve, i'll give you one scenario out of many possibilities:
ut, baylor, tech, and tcu to p12 (taking us to 16)
notre dame and ku to the b10 (taking them to 16)
ou and okie state to the sec (taking them to 16)
that gives you the votes to dissolve the b12 and creates balance and some powerful ****ing mega-conferences.
We're better off, and have more clout, IMO, simply allowing the Big 12 to implode under it's own weight. We don't need to add UT and it's minions to accomplish that. The Pac will be a powerful mega conference with or without UT. That being the case, we're better off without them.
you have no rational basis for your opinion, other than you really, really, really want it to be true.
as someone who has actually negotiated carriage deals and who actually understands the business of tv, i will have to simply suggest you are likely to be very disappointed.
i hope we stay at 12 for at least a few more years, but me wishing it true, doesn't it make it more likely than you stridently wishing it true.
Junction
Club Member
**** you and your facts and your logic. And **** the risen SWC. You are probably right, but I really, really, really, really, really, really, really, REALLY want you to be wrong.
This is where your argument falls dead on the floor with no hope of revival. The pac 10 would NEVER accept Baylor and Colorado now hates them too. Baylor to PAC 12 is simply impossible.
FlatironsBuff
Well-Known Member
The kicker in this is I think Scott feels that a PAC 16-20 with OU and UT makes it to where DTV just would HAVE to swing a deal and sign yhe P12N.
I think when The Sunday Ticket goes away they will have to anyway, but I can see LS pressuring the Pac 10 schools to cave and try to ignore Tejas' history. I hope the rest of the schools are smart enough to resist.
I wonder what Rick Georges opinion is on this?
I think when The Sunday Ticket goes away they will have to anyway, but I can see LS pressuring the Pac 10 schools to cave and try to ignore Tejas' history. I hope the rest of the schools are smart enough to resist.
I wonder what Rick Georges opinion is on this?
Junction
Club Member
Except DTV and everyone else on Earth has felt no need to swing a deal for the LHN. If DTV is OK not carrying the Pac-12 and OK not carrying UT, I think they'll be OK not carrying the Pac-12 with UT (although I still can't imagine that somebody won't blink in that pissing contest well before all this could ever come down....)
i understand. maybe it comes together a different way. facts and history suggest otherwise. look how close the p10 came to bringing ut (and much of its wish list) into the conference on TWO prior occasions.
i hope we stay at 12 for a few years. but, i think ultimately there will be 4-6 sixteen team conferences. each will be split into 8 team divisions. there will be a full blown playoff system. etc. the tv money will be so big that everyone will sell their soul to gain a better seat at the table when it all comes together.
this stopped being about amateur athletics and sportsmanship years ago. now, i predict, this will hurdle to its inevitable conclusion: a replica of america's best run sports league, the nfl.
He said that was one possible scenario.
Another is that the ACC takes West Virginia and the Pac-12 takes Boise State instead of Baylor. Lots of potential scenarios. The moves that drive this and the associated power:
1. Where does Notre Dame end up?
2. Where does Texas end up?
3. Where does Oklahoma end up?
The rest are just window dressing in the financial scheme of things and politics will determine those.
Some Nostradamus on this board predicted it would be Chris Peterson. Oh wait, that was me.
I agree that Briles is a great fit for UT. He has extensive connections throughout Texas high schools and is well liked by just about all of them. That said, Bailer thinks they are ready to take their turn as lead dog in the state of Texas. They have capitalized on Their success with RG3 and have started construction on an in-campus stadium. They have some pretty deep pockets, admittedly not Longhorn deep, but they would not let Briles go without a fight and I think he thinks he can lead that program to big dog status.
Oh, and **** bailer!
I think Larry Scott also has a dislike for Texas after the last expansion negotiations. Nothing a dump truck of money can't resolve but I think there are some hurt feelings there.
If the B12 dissolves, UT will simply re-engineer the SWC, just like they did when the B12 dissolved a few years ago. UT doesn't want to be a big fish in a big pond. They want to be the only shark in the sea. The Pac doesn't allow that. UT wants as little to do with us as we do with them.