I'm bored at work so, slightly more detailed:
CSU: This should definitely be a W. They're bad, but it's game 1 and they're a rival so could be semi close, but bad.
Nebraska: We beat them last year at their house. I'm not sure how much they've improved, but I like our chances here better than our P12 schedule. They didn't win a single game on the road last year. Year 2 for Frost at USF was quite the improvement on year 1, though..
Air Force: Option is annoying, but they're bad. If we're disciplined we should have this one fairly easy.
@ASU: We suck on the road. We suck at the road in the heat in Tempe. They only lost once at home last season. This will be an interesting test. Can MT get us to be non garbage on the road?
Arizona: Tate scares me, but hopefully our discipline from playing AFA and Nebraska will help us here. And Sumlin inexplicably turning him into a pocket passer. Also, at home. P12 teams suck on the road generally, so, should be a W.
@Oregon: Oregon on the road should be tough. They should be pretty good this year, possible top of the first round QB leading them. We'll probably get rolled.
@Wazzu: Wazzu will never scare me, but Leach randomly has that thing rolling. Idk who their QB is, but I'm sure Leach can find one to run that offense along his walk to work or something. If the DBs aren't a mess, maybe. And if we fix road woes. I do feel like the bottom will fall out from under Wazzu one of these years and they'll go back to being a meh team.
USC: Just can't predict a W over Trojan. Helton is probably fired by this point in the year and they'll go on a run under their inspired new interim coach somehow. It is at home, though.. and someday we're bound to beat those guys.
@UCLA: idk, the Chipper era started out rough, but their schedule last year was tough too. DTR looked solid last year, but isn't really "scary" yet. If the wheels are falling off the Chipwagon this might be a nice road win. Also, road game.
Stanford: I think they're going to be really good this year, but I kinda think that every year. Costello is really good, if they take the training wheels off and let him play they could be challenging UO/UW for the north. It is a home game, though.. and we might be desperate for a win. Best chance for a big upset here.
@Washington: I think they could be really good this year with Eason at QB. If he steps in and plays to his talent level, they could be playoff contenders. and on the road. No chance unless Eason is a disaster.
@Utah: I'm not buying the hype. They might be the best South team this year, but that isn't saying much. They do have an actual QB for once and as always the stout DL, but we seem to always play them hard. We might have to win this to get to a bowl so I like our chances here.
So..
2 for sure wins, CSU and AFA
3 I like our chances: Nebraska, UCLA, and Arizona
4 could go either way but probably lose more than we win here: ASU, Wazzu, USC, Utah
3 likely L: Washington, Oregon, Stanford
2 + 2 of the 2nd group + 1-3 from the 3rd group and 0 from last group = 5-7 wins, somewhere in there.