My $.02
His sophomore year, he had some pretty good numbers, had some pretty boneheaded mistakes, Spruce, and not a lot of wins against both good and ****ty teams
His junior year, he regressed, had some pretty boneheaded mistakes, Spruce, and even fewer wins against both good and ****ty teams
This year, he has improved numbers-wise, most people outside of this forum think he is on fire, has had a few (but not many) boneheaded mistakes, is running the ball better than he ever has, and against the first two ****ty teams that we played, he led a throttling of both which didn't happen the two previous years, and has completed passes to 12 different receivers.
All in all, I would say he is improving, has better talent around him this year, but who is to say that THIS wouldn't be a regression year if he had red-shirted. Lots of college QBs do that so I don't see him as any different. I'd also say that specifically being a "senior" is leading to the success he is having this year.