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So who do we beat?
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Is it unlikely, yeah ill admit it. That's how they should take the field though. If we can finish somebody, that **** is gonna jack these guys sky high with confidence. In a weird way, it reminds me of how we always got close to beating Nebraska, then just beat them like they stole something. It's gonna happen, question is when? Who better for it to be against than mighty U$C?
Or, let's dick stomp those curb heads.
SINKRATZ
PhD in Analogy
Still the fact remains that we are through the easiest (by far) portion of our schedule and we are 2-4. There are 2 teams in this conference with a losing record right now, 2. There are no clear victories left.
If before the season you were told that through 6 games we'd be 2-4 with a loss to CSU, but we would be much more competitive in our losses I think most people would not be surprised, but a little bummed because that's about the low end of reasonable expectations heading into the season.
I don't see a single game where I think CU has no chance to win. I see several where it will be very difficult. There isn't a single team in the Pac 12 that can't lose to any other team in the Pac 12. The difference between the top and the bottom of the conference is very slim.
It's hard. We're better. It's obvious that we are not the patsy we were the past three years. But it's also hard to look at that schedule and definitively say, "We're going to win that one."
If you'd have asked me before the season where our wins would have come from, I would have said the OOC, Cal, Oregon State, Arizona, and Utah. Now here we are, having played 5 of those games, we're 2-3 in them, 0-2 in the conference games, with Arizona and Utah both coming off epic wins. So here we are, being undeniably better than we have been in years, and still looking down the barrel of a 0-9 conference season.
I like the kids' attitude, but the truth is that right now the team has a losing atmosphere about it. When the key moments arrive, we don't find a way to make those positive plays. I think that is at least 50% mental. All it probably is going to take is a win - a big win - for the kids to not only have that winning attitude, but also have that confidence that in the key moments they are going to find a way to make those positive plays.
Looking forward, there's a good chance that we'll be competitive in all 6 and still lose all 6, but I think there's an equally good chance that we'll win 4 of them. The likeliest of course being somewhere in between.
If you'd have asked me before the season where our wins would have come from, I would have said the OOC, Cal, Oregon State, Arizona, and Utah. Now here we are, having played 5 of those games, we're 2-3 in them, 0-2 in the conference games, with Arizona and Utah both coming off epic wins. So here we are, being undeniably better than we have been in years, and still looking down the barrel of a 0-9 conference season.
I like the kids' attitude, but the truth is that right now the team has a losing atmosphere about it. When the key moments arrive, we don't find a way to make those positive plays. I think that is at least 50% mental. All it probably is going to take is a win - a big win - for the kids to not only have that winning attitude, but also have that confidence that in the key moments they are going to find a way to make those positive plays.
Looking forward, there's a good chance that we'll be competitive in all 6 and still lose all 6, but I think there's an equally good chance that we'll win 4 of them. The likeliest of course being somewhere in between.
I don't see a team in the country that is unbeatable. Auburn might be the closest if I had to pick someone. They are fixing to play some really big games though. I'm not sold on Florida St. at all. Usually there is at least one team that's just head and shoulders better, I don't see that this year.
FSU lost a lot of talent to the pros on the D side of things. That ND game will show a lot
Yeah that'll be a big one.
I am not the only one who has thought so.
It is fine. I understand some people just want results and don't care about the rebuilding aspect.
I guess if going to every game and staying the til the end every time + watching every single second of each game=checking out... Good to know.
Thanks for spending the time to find those posts. Solid posts imo. Anyways just because I posted on an internet message board that I don't think our HC is the guy... doesn't mean I've checked out on the season. Quite the opposite actually
Slider isn't checked out, but he has given up on this coaching staff. I kind of feel bad for him. We've all been there a lot recently, and it's a terrible place to be.
AlferdJasper
Well-Known Member
Do you have a particular timespan in which this will happen?
Assuming our chances of winning each game average out to around 20% pre game, basically 1 to 3 that we don't win a single game. Not winning a game in this stretch would be quite disappointing. I think that's a pessimistic observation of our chance to win per game, actually. Gotta win one to give credit to the rebuilding process, very mild success if we win two. Great success if we win 3.
lawdogg
Club Member
All relative, man. Compared to USC, UCLA, or Oregon, Arizona might look less daunting.
Honestly, I am not sure that is the case. I think Zona is the toughest matchup for our defense remaining.
lawdogg
Club Member
That may be, but on paper, those other teams are almost certainly more talented. Put another way, it would be an upset for Arizona to beat any of them (obviously possible, but an upset nonetheless). That view of the relative talent levels I think is what drives a lot of folks picking them as a more likely win. Of course, I have it on good authority that we're going to beat all of them, so worry you not.
Great OL, great WRs, a young RB turning into a total stud, and a mobile QB who can sling it?
Truth is, that's a nightmare for any defense. They're reminding me a lot of those great teams Rich Rod had at WVU.
DiggerBuffs
Well-Known Member
Ranking best to worst: Utah, Washington, Zona, SC, UCLA, Oregon. Win 2, pray for 2 more. No chance in 2.
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DiggerBuffs
Well-Known Member
We beat a ranked team in USC after they beat Zona and then beat a ranked team in 6-2 Zona.
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I was looking around last night for a sight that gave win probabilities that came from adjusted SOS, but the only site I could find that had them was a metric site that had us ranked a bit lower than last year, and I have a hard time taking that seriously because even though the W/L column doesn't show it. I went through and calculated it using those probabilities and it had a 55% chance of us going winless. We also have a 8% chance of beating Utah according to it, so I don't trust the metrics for it. So, I went and did the calculations for adjusted pythag win%, and the results were about the same, but I have a feeling they will change heavily as Utah comes back to earth. Same with UA. Anyway, it broke down like this:
| Team | Offense Pythag | Defense Pythag | Adj Pythag Win% | Adj Pythag | P(Win) |
| USC | 31.74 | 19.34 | 0.790 | 3.9 | 11.08% |
| UCLA | 43.36 | 22.76 | 0.848 | 4.2 | 7.72% |
| UW | 29.15 | 23.39 | 0.643 | 3.2 | 20.63% |
| UA | 31.69 | 20.63 | 0.759 | 3.8 | 12.94% |
| UO | 41.67 | 21.82 | 0.849 | 4.2 | 7.68% |
| UU | 33.86 | 18.61 | 0.832 | 4.2 | 8.64% |
| CU | 24.00 | 31.90 | 0.319 | 1.9 |
So I broke it into a probability model to see how many wins remaining fall on the chart below:
So...
0 Wins - 48.2%
1 Win - 37.4%
2 Wins - 12.1%
3 Wins - 2.1%
4 Wins - 0.2%
5 Wins - 0.01%
6 wins at this point isn't possible according to this. Everything should be right, but the probabilities may be off because I couldn't remember if the binomial distribution was the correct one for n events with different probabilities. If that's wrong let me know. We should expect about 1 more win using expected value as well.
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