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So who do we beat?

Seems like we play Utah pretty strong every year. They don't have the fire power to run away from us like a USC or Oregon. If we can catch a couple breaks and play decent defense we might be within a TD in the 4th qtr. CU will have to play a very good offensive game and have zero turnovers.
 
hate to piss on the parade, but we have seen all the wins for this year. Buffs just do not have the talent to overcome what we are facing. Had our chances against cal and osu, the other games were not as close as we think. Would love to upset ucla or utah, but I just do not see it. CU has a knack for making average QB's look great and great QB's look world class. we're furked.
2015 I guess after another long off-season.
 
If we are going to win, I see UCLA, Washington and Utah, to some degree or another, winnable. If I'm hopeful, I say we win 2 of those. If I think logically, we finish the year 2-10.
 
well we seem to like setting the bar low, I guess not winning a single conference game is still one record within our grasp.
 
BuffUp said:
hate to piss on the parade, but we have seen all the wins for this year. Buffs just do not have the talent to overcome what we are facing. Had our chances against cal and osu, the other games were not as close as we think. Would love to upset ucla or utah, but I just do not see it. CU has a knack for making average QB's look great and great QB's look world class. we're furked.
2015 I guess after another long off-season.
Click to expand...
Math and statistics would disagree with you.

WinsProbability
030.09%
140.85%
222.18%
36.02%
40.82%
50.04%

Our expected wins is also 5.3 according to the pythagorean expectation. As it stands right now we have a 31% chance against UCLA, 24.8% chance against Washington, and a 28.6% chance against Utah and all of those will change since the method takes into adjusted points per game and home field advantage. Despite not being favored in a game, the stats still say we win one more as the most likely outcome.

I'm not really sure where you're getting that we're making QBs look better than they are. Kessler is the only one, but USC is also the only team we've played who has high-4*'s and 5*s stacked in the WR corps.
 
'Tini said:
Math and statistics would disagree with you.

WinsProbability
030.09%
140.85%
222.18%
36.02%
40.82%
50.04%

Our expected wins is also 5.3 according to the pythagorean expectation. As it stands right now we have a 31% chance against UCLA, 24.8% chance against Washington, and a 28.6% chance against Utah and all of those will change since the method takes into adjusted points per game and home field advantage. Despite not being favored in a game, the stats still say we win one more as the most likely outcome.

I'm not really sure where you're getting that we're making QBs look better than they are. Kessler is the only one, but USC is also the only team we've played who has high-4*'s and 5*s stacked in the WR corps.
Click to expand...


This is one time when math and stats don't mean ****, IMO. All you need is eyeballs. Anyone who thinks we have enough talent to beat anyone left on the schedule is just pumping sunshine. Our only chances at conference wins were OSU and Cal, many people were saying that in the spring. If anything, its more true now than it was then, with Arizona, Utah and ASU being better than expected. So now someone will say "Well, **** it, let's not even show up then!" That's crap. There's tons of value to our future in going out and competing and hanging into the second half, and maybe into the 4th at home. Absolutely. That helps us at least with the kids who are here now, to feel they've taken a step forward. But us winning again? Not gonna happen.
 
:rofl: I'm glad you're the authority on when unbiased logic can and can't be used

The system in using is basically the same one that Kenpom.com uses by the way, so it's not exactly a **** system.
 
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I think there could be three games essentially over by Halftime. That's what I call an "easy win". Maybe one more in there because it only takes one quarter's worth of fumbles, misplays, INTs, etc. to have pinball scoreboards.
 
BuffaloChuck said:
I think there could be three games essentially over by Halftime. That's what I call an "easy win". Maybe one more in there because it only takes one quarter's worth of fumbles, misplays, INTs, etc. to have pinball scoreboards.
Click to expand...
So, easy wins by us or by them?
 
seattlebuff said:
This is one time when math and stats don't mean ****, IMO. All you need is eyeballs. Anyone who thinks we have enough talent to beat anyone left on the schedule is just pumping sunshine. Our only chances at conference wins were OSU and Cal, many people were saying that in the spring. If anything, its more true now than it was then, with Arizona, Utah and ASU being better than expected. So now someone will say "Well, **** it, let's not even show up then!" That's crap. There's tons of value to our future in going out and competing and hanging into the second half, and maybe into the 4th at home. Absolutely. That helps us at least with the kids who are here now, to feel they've taken a step forward. But us winning again? Not gonna happen.
Click to expand...
you nailed it here ^^ . Stats mean **** sometimes, really need to show win or playing close, followed by we have seen the wins we are going to see this year. I hope we win the rest of them, but just don't see it.
 
FLounder said:
Anybody can beat anyone on any given day.


/thread
Click to expand...

Nice sentiment but completely false.

Our level of talent right now is never going to play with USC or Oregon's level of talent right now.

If we continue to get better to a point where we actually have athletes on the field who are close then what you say is true.

Any given day we might have a chance against Oregon State and Cal and Washington State, against the teams with elite athletes, not so much.
 
BuffUp said:
you nailed it here ^^ . Stats mean **** sometimes, really need to show win or playing close, followed by we have seen the wins we are going to see this year. I hope we win the rest of them, but just don't see it.
Click to expand...
:lol:

Would love for you go tell Kenpom.com his method doesn't mean shut because of your bias.
 
BuffUp is right. The stats are based primarily on point differential and strength of schedule. It doesn't mean they aren't of value, but using a very basic statistical method, we can conclude that CU is an even match up with Oregon (CU lost to Cal by 3, Cal lost to Arizona by 4, Arizona beat Oregon by 7). If you include a 3 point adjustment for home field advantage, my stupid model makes CU a 6 point favorite at Oregon. Obviously this is a simple and flawed model with a very small sample size, but even extremely complex statistical methods are flawed (and the sample size is still pretty small even six games in to the season). And the "stats" can't take into account that ASU lost Kelly in the first half against us or that USC would've put between 80 and 90 points on us if they didn't call off the dogs. I'm guessing those numbers would skew the statistics in favor of 0 more wins.
 
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azbuff said:
BuffUp is right. The stats are based primarily on point differential and strength of schedule. It doesn't mean they aren't of value, but using a very basic statistical method, we can conclude that CU is an even match up with Oregon (CU lost to Cal by 3, Cal lost to Arizona by 4, Arizona beat Oregon by 7). If you include a 3 point adjustment for home field advantage, my stupid model makes CU a 6 point favorite at Oregon. Obviously this is a simple and flawed model with a very small sample size, but even extremely complex statistical methods are flawed (and the sample size is still pretty small even six games in to the season). And the "stats" can't take into account that ASU lost Kelly in the first half against us or that USC would've put between 80 and 90 points on us if they didn't call off the dogs. I'm guessing those numbers would skew the statistics in favor of 0 more wins.
Click to expand...

Call me an idiot(which 98% of you already do) but does this guys own Buffscoop?
 
azbuff said:
BuffUp is right. The stats are based primarily on point differential and strength of schedule. It doesn't mean they aren't of value, but using a very basic statistical method, we can conclude that CU is an even match up with Oregon (CU lost to Cal by 3, Cal lost to Arizona by 4, Arizona beat Oregon by 7). If you include a 3 point adjustment for home field advantage, my stupid model makes CU a 6 point favorite at Oregon. Obviously this is a simple and flawed model with a very small sample size, but even extremely complex statistical methods are flawed (and the sample size is still pretty small even six games in to the season). And the "stats" can't take into account that ASU lost Kelly in the first half against us or that USC would've put between 80 and 90 points on us if they didn't call off the dogs. I'm guessing those numbers would skew the statistics in favor of 0 more wins.
Click to expand...
Obviously there are flaws, but if it is good enough for KenPom then it's good enough for analysis that's going to happen on a message board. I'm not saying we are gonna win again, just that the odds are in our favor. I would love to perform a logisitc regression for game odds, but I don't have the money to purchase the dataset I've found and I haven't found a suitable free data set.
 
FLounder said:
Call me an idiot(which 98% of you already do) but does this guys own Buffscoop?
Click to expand...

No.

Tini - that is a reasonable explanation, even though I just don't see it. I like us against Arizona about as much as against anyone else.
 
azbuff said:
No.

Tini - that is a reasonable explanation, even though I just don't see it. I like us against Arizona about as much as against anyone else.
Click to expand...
I think Arizona is tied for the worst mstchup with Oregon. I still like us against Utah and UW. I do find it odd that right now our best odds are this weekend.
 
'Tini said:
Math and statistics would disagree with you.

WinsProbability
030.09%
140.85%
222.18%
36.02%
40.82%
50.04%

Our expected wins is also 5.3 according to the pythagorean expectation. As it stands right now we have a 31% chance against UCLA, 24.8% chance against Washington, and a 28.6% chance against Utah and all of those will change since the method takes into adjusted points per game and home field advantage. Despite not being favored in a game, the stats still say we win one more as the most likely outcome.

I'm not really sure where you're getting that we're making QBs look better than they are. Kessler is the only one, but USC is also the only team we've played who has high-4*'s and 5*s stacked in the WR corps.
Click to expand...

Jared Goff did throw for 7 touchdowns against us-but I agree. Let me say this before I make my next point-Talentwise, we are the worst team in the South division, and the weaker team in all five games. That being said, this schedule isn't as tough as it looks. Why?

UCLA has dramatically underachieved, other than running the likely South Division champ IMO (ASU) off the field.
I'm having a hard time reading Washington-They took a half off against Georgia State, didn't show well at Hawaii, but blew out the same Cal team we couldn't outscore.
Arizona is overrated. Its clear to me that Rich Rod owns Oregon like CU owned Texas Tech----as evidenced by the fact that they lost their first game coming off that win. Sure, theres no harm in losing to USC, but the way they lost...poor special teams play.
Oregon is a loss. If we can play them a little tougher (lead into the 2nd quarter), great.
Utah is overrated. They are the beneficiary of the failure of a season that UCLA is having. Watch for USC to bring them back to earth in a big way.
 
Probability still says we win one more. Also says we should have one more win and should be a 5 win team at the end of the season.

36% vs Washington
13% vs Arizona
7% vs Oregon
28% vs Utah
 
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