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SoThe Buffs Are Big Favorites Against Hawaii & csu

CSU's record this year will probably not be as good as it was last year. While I really like Jim Leavitt on the CU part of the equation, he just doesn't have the horses on the D side of the ball. CSU takes a hit in these betting lines because of the new coaching regime and the graduation of Grayson, Ty S., and Dee Hart. The first two games will tell a lot for both teams - CSU plays a quasi real Minnesota team at home a week before the RMS. It remains to be seen whether the Buffs will be able to stop anyone again this year. I'd keep my betting money in my pocket for the CSU game. What I'm interested in early this year is seeing the use/development of CU's new RBs.
 
buffedup said:
On what planet? Sparkles is arguably the best HC (at least short term) that CSU has EVER had. I believe he is the first HC in their history to have such success and leave for a very prestigious job. Bobo is a complete unknown. He may be decent, but being on Sparkles level is highly doubtful.
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Wiki:

Bobo has been at the University of Georgia for the last 14 years. There he had been a Quarterbacks coach all 14 years and been the Offensive Coordinator since 2007 all under Mark Richt. He helped groom very successful Quarterbacks in Matthew Stafford and Aaron Murray.

I just like Bobo's resume. Consistency at a high level. Sparkles was kind of a mercenary and a job-hopper, but yeah, a good coach in his own right.
 
PAHIBuff said:
Wiki:

Bobo has been at the University of Georgia for the last 14 years. There he had been a Quarterbacks coach all 14 years and been the Offensive Coordinator since 2007 all under Mark Richt. He helped groom very successful Quarterbacks in Matthew Stafford and Aaron Murray.

I just like Bobo's resume. Consistency at a high level. Sparkles was kind of a mercenary and a job-hopper, but yeah, a good coach in his own right.
Click to expand...

None of that means jack **** when it comes to being a new HC at a school that doesn't pull in 5* talent. Congratulations, he sent a 5* and another top 50 player to the league.


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This is the annual "We're should kick CSU's ass" thread. It's a staple of Allbuffs. If forced to pick right now, I'd take CU by a hair, but I wouldn't put $$ on it. It's a coin toss. There. My annual "it's a coin toss" contribution to the CSU game conversation….

tini, the Buff D is not good.
 
PAHIBuff said:
This is the annual "We're should kick CSU's ass" thread. It's a staple of Allbuffs. If forced to pick right now, I'd take CU by a hair, but I wouldn't put $$ on it. It's a coin toss. There. My annual "it's a coin toss" contribution to the CSU game conversation….

tini, the Buff D is not good.
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The Buffs D wasn't good, but there is talent on that side of the ball. There's a reason why Baer was fired. Crawley, Tedric, White, Bell, Awuzie, Addison, Olugbode, McCartney, Kafovalu, Carrell, Gilbert, etc are all guys with talent.

If CU had a new coach, lost damn near all of its production, had to replace a NFL QB, and had just lost there best coach in a long long time, your tune would be different.


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'Tini said:
The Buffs D wasn't good, but there is talent on that side of the ball. There's a reason why Baer was fired. Crawley, Tedric, White, Bell, Awuzie, Addison, Olugbode, McCartney, Kafovalu, Carrell, Gilbert, etc are all guys with talent.

If CU had a new coach, lost damn near all of its production, had to replace a NFL QB, and had just lost there best coach in a long long time, your tune would be different.


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Click to expand...

This time last year you were telling us all how Grayson sucked and they lost almost their entire Oline so we should roll CSU. This is no gimme no matter how much you want to believe it is.
 
Don't think it's a gimmie, but highly skeptical of replacing that much production for the second year in a row with a completely inexperienced coach.


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Even when the program was rolling, I remember most of the victories usually being between 7-14 points. Very few blow outs. All the cliches of this being CSUs "SuperBowl" or them being the "little brother" , are very true . Just get a W and leave . Mac and the boys can't afford to take another L to CSU .
 
BuffPride88 said:
Even when the program was rolling, I remember most of the victories usually being between 7-14 points. Very few blow outs. All the cliches of this being CSUs "SuperBowl" or them being the "little brother" , are very true . Just get a W and leave . Mac and the boys can't afford to take another L to CSU .
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It's a interesting split. Since 1995 when the series resumed on a yearly basis:

0cSgipO.png


Against CSU in the first game of the season, CU has a winning percentage of .600. When the game is not the first game of the season, that win percentage jumped up to .800. There have been more games that were the first of the season (15 vs. 5), but there seems to be a big difference in this game depending on when the game happens. Granted, the games did happen in 1995, 1996, 2001, 2006, and 2011, but still an interesting trend.

Overall since 1995, CU has won by an average of 6.4 points.

So, after looking at the Phil Steele numbers, the history of the two teams and when they play each other, the Vegas line does not seem to be that out of place.
 
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'Tini said:
It's a interesting split. Since 1995 when the series resumed on a yearly basis:

0cSgipO.png


Against CSU in the first game of the season, CU has a winning percentage of .600. When the game is not the first game of the season, that win percentage jumped up to .800. There have been more games that were the first of the season (15 vs. 5), but there seems to be a big difference in this game depending on when the game happens. Granted, the games did happen in 1995, 1996, 2001, 2006, and 2011, but still an interesting trend.

Overall since 1995, CU has won by an average of 6.4 points.

So, after looking at the Phil Steele numbers, the history of the two teams and when they play each other, the Vegas line does not seem to be that out of place.
Click to expand...

Try and do more of this type of posting, please. Nice job, tini.
 
'Tini said:
It's a interesting split. Since 1995 when the series resumed on a yearly basis:

0cSgipO.png


Against CSU in the first game of the season, CU has a winning percentage of .600. When the game is not the first game of the season, that win percentage jumped up to .800. There have been more games that were the first of the season (15 vs. 5), but there seems to be a big difference in this game depending on when the game happens. Granted, the games did happen in 1995, 1996, 2001, 2006, and 2011, but still an interesting trend.

Overall since 1995, CU has won by an average of 6.4 points.

So, after looking at the Phil Steele numbers, the history of the two teams and when they play each other, the Vegas line does not seem to be that out of place.
Click to expand...

Nice graph, but can we get some more gold in it please?
 
Duff Man said:
The defense lacks talent in the front seven.
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This is where JL will have to earn his paycheck and at least scheme to where that talent is out of place or making overly complicated reads to where if they make the wrong call they can't get back in the play. Similar to what we have done on offense, we need to see on defense.
 
'Tini said:
It's a interesting split. Since 1995 when the series resumed on a yearly basis:

0cSgipO.png


Against CSU in the first game of the season, CU has a winning percentage of .600. When the game is not the first game of the season, that win percentage jumped up to .800. There have been more games that were the first of the season (15 vs. 5), but there seems to be a big difference in this game depending on when the game happens. Granted, the games did happen in 1995, 1996, 2001, 2006, and 2011, but still an interesting trend.

Overall since 1995, CU has won by an average of 6.4 points.

So, after looking at the Phil Steele numbers, the history of the two teams and when they play each other, the Vegas line does not seem to be that out of place.
Click to expand...


Good research, once again. thanks.
 
These lines and Tini's study makes me think my cynicism has reached an inappropriate level. Over a touchdown road favorite. I know they have to stimulate interest, but I think these are huge numbers. I also know Vegas is better at predicting than me. Certainly some good news!
 
'Tini said:
The Buffs D wasn't good, but there is talent on that side of the ball. There's a reason why Baer was fired. Crawley, Tedric, White, Bell, Awuzie, Addison, Olugbode, McCartney, Kafovalu, Carrell, Gilbert, etc are all guys with talent.

If CU had a new coach, lost damn near all of its production, had to replace a NFL QB, and had just lost there best coach in a long long time, your tune would be different.


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Click to expand...
Problem is, no matter how bad csu is and "how talented CU is" - them ****ers always play us real tough. This game is always a "pick'em"
 
I just know, I never go into this game with an easy feeling like us CU fans should. Them assholes always play UP and CU always seems to play a little scared (recently) (like my kids whole lives).
 
BuffUp said:
I just know, I never go into this game with an easy feeling like us CU fans should. Them assholes always play UP and CU always seems to play a little scared (recently) (like my kids whole lives).
Click to expand...

First game yes. Second game or later no since 1995


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Vegas is just trying to get even money on both sides. Doesn't necessarily mean they believe CU is 9 points better or will win by that much.
 
'Tini said:
First game yes. Second game or later no since 1995


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Click to expand...

College is one thing where it's hard to go back that far and compare results. How similar are both teams over that span of time? How many different head coaches have both sides had since then? 1995 CU would probably kill 2015 in a game.
 
mdelpizzo_1 said:
College is one thing where it's hard to go back that far and compare results. How similar are both teams over that span of time? How many different head coaches have both sides had since then? 1995 CU would probably kill 2015 in a game.
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That would be sports in general. But, last time we played CSU later in the season was 2011, Embree beat them 24-3. it makes sense, little brother gets fired up to play big bro the first game of the year, when it's not the 1st game, they don't come in with the same energy since they didn't focus on big bro throughout camp and the offseason.
 
'Tini said:
That would be sports in general. But, last time we played CSU later in the season was 2011, Embree beat them 24-3. it makes sense, little brother gets fired up to play big bro the first game of the year, when it's not the 1st game, they don't come in with the same energy since they didn't focus on big bro throughout camp and the offseason.
Click to expand...

Your the graphs and all the data to back your argument up still made me skeptical, but when you reminded me about 2011 when Embree won 24-3 that sold me more than anything. I still think it will be close into the 4th quarter, we should be able to pull away there.
 
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'Tini said:
That would be sports in general. But, last time we played CSU later in the season was 2011, Embree beat them 24-3. it makes sense, little brother gets fired up to play big bro the first game of the year, when it's not the 1st game, they don't come in with the same energy since they didn't focus on big bro throughout camp and the offseason.
Click to expand...

That wasn't Embree and that wasn't 2011. Hawkins did that in 2010. Embree won 28-14 in 2011.
 
TSchekler said:
Vegas is just trying to get even money on both sides. Doesn't necessarily mean they believe CU is 9 points better or will win by that much.
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This.

We were 6 - 6 ATS last year with the first two games being some of our toughest, not sure where we go but against CSU last year we were favored by 2.5 and lost by 14, against Umass we were favored by 18 and won by 3. Vegas went from significantly over rating us early to under rating us for a span. Vegas also seems to have trouble with our home/road performance gaps.
 
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