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Sporting News Basketball Preview

Hoping that Utah has a solid year and can beat up on teams before they come play us. Looking forward to solid teams visiting the high altitude schools and heading home with two losses.
 
Utah is going to be solid - Delon Wright is the real deal

‘Value Add’ stat projects Utah’s Delon Wright as having a historic season (h/t to [MENTION=6462]pachoops[/MENTION] for the article)


Pudner has released his preseason projections for the 2014-2015 season — you can browse through them all right here — and Wright is projected as far and away the most valuable player in the country. In fact, Pudner projects Wright to have the highest Value Add rating in the 11 years that he’s been keeping track of the stat.
Wright’s a stud — he averaged 15.3 points, 6.8 boards, 5.3 assists, 2.5 steals and 1.3 blocks in 36.4 minutes last season — and while I expect him to be in the conversation for Preseason First Team All-America, it’s important to remember that Utah is going to be much better this season. He’ll have more support which means that the Utes will not be relying on his as heavily as they did last season. His numbers may dip a bit this year.
 
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Lest we forget Loveridge is a year older in a league that doesn't project to have nearly the front court depth it did a season ago (Solomon, Wears, Blackwell, all of Oregon State, all of Oregon but namely just Moser, Bachynski, Huestis, Powell).

Additionally, people are very high on their recruiting class especially Kyle Kuzma (Chapman should be solid).

Utah is going to be solid - Delon Wright is the real deal

‘Value Add’ stat projects Utah’s Delon Wright as having a historic season (h/t to @pachoops for the article)


Pudner has released his preseason projections for the 2014-2015 season — you can browse through them all right here — and Wright is projected as far and away the most valuable player in the country. In fact, Pudner projects Wright to have the highest Value Add rating in the 11 years that he’s been keeping track of the stat.
Wright’s a stud — he averaged 15.3 points, 6.8 boards, 5.3 assists, 2.5 steals and 1.3 blocks in 36.4 minutes last season — and while I expect him to be in the conversation for Preseason First Team All-America, it’s important to remember that Utah is going to be much better this season. He’ll have more support which means that the Utes will not be relying on his as heavily as they did last season. His numbers may dip a bit this year.
 
I'm not buying Utah that high. But it will make for a killer road trip for the rest of the conference. That will be very nice.
 
p12 schools will be dreading the mountain road trip this year. Utah is for real. They play the toughest non conference schedule out of the p12 schools. They will be ready come conference play. On top of that.. I can't see them losing more than 2 games at home this year.. It will be a heck of a battle for 2-5 spots this year. UCLA, Stanford, and Utah will all be coming at us for 2nd. AND yes... Arizona is winning again. They are unreal this year. With that in mind, I can see us winning at home!
 
p12 schools will be dreading the mountain road trip this year. Utah is for real. They play the toughest non conference schedule out of the p12 schools. They will be ready come conference play. On top of that.. I can't see them losing more than 2 games at home this year.. It will be a heck of a battle for 2-5 spots this year. UCLA, Stanford, and Utah will all be coming at us for 2nd. AND yes... Arizona is winning again. They are unreal this year. With that in mind, I can see us winning at home!

IMO, once again the P12 is pretty clearly broken into tiers.

Tier 1 - The Elite
Arizona

Tier 2 - The Damn Good
Colorado
Stanford
UCLA
Utah

Tier 3 - Could Be Dangerous
Cal
Oregon (only because I can't rule out an Altman team)
Washington

Tier 4 - The Dumpster Fires
Arizona State
Oregon State
Washington State
USC

Is there a chance that Cal/Washington sneak into tier 2 or that Furd drops into tier 3? Yeah. But this is the basic breakdown. Honestly, I like our odds in tier 2. I think Utah is the only team that is better than us right now (mainly because Delon Wright may be the best PG in the nation). UCLA has the talent, but it's a lot of new pieces being thrown together, and I refuse to get excited about Furd only to have Dawkins go full Dawkins again. The key will be holding home court and not dropping the stupid ones on the road that tend to plague us.
 
Have the conference schedules been released yet? Curious to see who we get on the back end of the mountain travel stretch.
 
Have the conference schedules been released yet? Curious to see who we get on the back end of the mountain travel stretch.


I'd love for UCLA and UA to be the weekend games. OTOH, it seems like we play better on the Wednesday/Thursday games than we do on the Saturday/Sunday games for some reason. I remember boat racing Oregon two years ago, only to lose at home three days later to a dog crap OSU team.
 
goose,

Why do you have Stanford so high? Randle and Brown return, but besides that we're looking at youth. The front court scares no one. Nothing in Dawkins history shows that he will do well with a young team.

Hell, with a starting lineup of 2 seniors and 2 juniors who had played together for 3 years and all scoring in double figures... they got worked by Dayton in the Dance. They got beat at home by a Mayor-less CU while fighting for their Bubble lives.

I just don't see it. Cal's got better talent. Washington's equivalent and better coached.
 
I'd love for UCLA and UA to be the weekend games. OTOH, it seems like we play better on the Wednesday/Thursday games than we do on the Saturday/Sunday games for some reason. I remember boat racing Oregon two years ago, only to lose at home three days later to a dog crap OSU team.

I remember that game, just terrible. I remember getting stuck in the parking garage for 45 minutes afterwards to and couldn't stop thinking about how bad it was.

I'm gonna look into the weekday/weekend splits for us and the rest of the conference, should help me kill a few hours.
 
goose,

Why do you have Stanford so high? Randle and Brown return, but besides that we're looking at youth. The front court scares no one. Nothing in Dawkins history shows that he will do well with a young team.

Hell, with a starting lineup of 2 seniors and 2 juniors who had played together for 3 years and all scoring in double figures... they got worked by Dayton in the Dance. They got beat at home by a Mayor-less CU while fighting for their Bubble lives.

I just don't see it. Cal's got better talent. Washington's equivalent and better coached.

I love Randle and think Nastic is underrated. The Allen twins are going to be better this year and I REALLY like Reid Travis and Dorian Pickens. I think both of them could be the rare freshman that contributes big time. Dawkins is the only thing holding me back. Honestly, give Tad that roster and he's the clear #2 with a chance to upset Arizona for the conference title. I can see where you're at with Cal (I almost threw them in with tier 2, but their lack of size has me nervous), but I'm stunned you put Washington as an equivalent with Furd. They have Upshaw, who is the king of potential but underperformance, and I really like Williams-Goss & Andrew(Squared), but who else on their team will do anything? Kemp Jr? Maybe Johnson?
 
I love Randle and think Nastic is underrated. The Allen twins are going to be better this year and I REALLY like Reid Travis and Dorian Pickens. I think both of them could be the rare freshman that contributes big time. Dawkins is the only thing holding me back. Honestly, give Tad that roster and he's the clear #2 with a chance to upset Arizona for the conference title. I can see where you're at with Cal (I almost threw them in with tier 2, but their lack of size has me nervous), but I'm stunned you put Washington as an equivalent with Furd. They have Upshaw, who is the king of potential but underperformance, and I really like Williams-Goss & Andrew(Squared), but who else on their team will do anything? Kemp Jr? Maybe Johnson?

With Washington, I see a couple go-to guys in Williams-Goss and Andrews with a big in Upshaw who will cause a lot of problems. Q Winters is the guy who I think makes a big difference, though. JC transfer who averaged 10 ppg as a frosh at Duquesne, then 12 ppg last year at JUCO. They've got bodies at the "4", which is a weakness that will tell against teams like CU and UA since Upshaw won't be able to deal with it on his own. But at the "1", "2", "3" and "5", I think Washington is in the upper half of the conference at each position.
 
56 days... Good discussion guys. I am kind of scared Goose is down on Stanford. They always do the opposite of what he says.
 
With Washington, I see a couple go-to guys in Williams-Goss and Andrews with a big in Upshaw who will cause a lot of problems. Q Winters is the guy who I think makes a big difference, though. JC transfer who averaged 10 ppg as a frosh at Duquesne, then 12 ppg last year at JUCO. They've got bodies at the "4", which is a weakness that will tell against teams like CU and UA since Upshaw won't be able to deal with it on his own. But at the "1", "2", "3" and "5", I think Washington is in the upper half of the conference at each position.

Considering the bottom four teams are a toxic wasteland though, is that really high praise? I will say that NWG is a stud and you make a good point on Winters, but I can't argue that those two (or even four if we include A2 and Upshaw) are enough to really take Washington into the top 6 of the conference. NWG is the only difference maker in my opinion. Even with Romar coaching I'm not sure that's enough to crack that second tier.

56 days... Good discussion guys. I am kind of scared Goose is down on Stanford. They always do the opposite of what he says.

This is my fear. That team lives to mock me.
 
For some reason I thought Dorsey (4* SF) was a 2015 commit, not 2014. So he'll be on UDub and that will help as well. I'm still not willing to put them above Cal/Furd though.
 
For some reason I thought Dorsey (4* SF) was a 2015 commit, not 2014. So he'll be on UDub and that will help as well. I'm still not willing to put them above Cal/Furd though.

It's the type of team that Romar's done well with. Dynamic player with the ball in his hands, a physical presence in the post, and then a mix of guys who can slash, pop and crash. If his defense comes together (and I believe it will), Washington's a threat for a bye in the Pac-12 tournament and a return to the Dance.
 
It's the type of team that Romar's done well with. Dynamic player with the ball in his hands, a physical presence in the post, and then a mix of guys who can slash, pop and crash. If his defense comes together (and I believe it will), Washington's a threat for a bye in the Pac-12 tournament and a return to the Dance.

With Romar I can't count them out. But they're way down my list of teams. Honestly, I could see Oregon surprising people over UDub right now. They have Young (who, IMO, is better than anyone on UDub) along with Lyle, Rorie & Bell (stud recruits) and Casey Benson (who I'm high on). The odds are slim, but if they can click they can be dangerous.

Somehow I'm talking myself into every team but the bottom four being a potential tourney team now. Damn you Nik. :lol:
 
With Romar I can't count them out. But they're way down my list of teams. Honestly, I could see Oregon surprising people over UDub right now. They have Young (who, IMO, is better than anyone on UDub) along with Lyle, Rorie & Bell (stud recruits) and Casey Benson (who I'm high on). The odds are slim, but if they can click they can be dangerous.

Somehow I'm talking myself into every team but the bottom four being a potential tourney team now. Damn you Nik. :lol:

Let's look at it a different way.

Which Pac-12 teams are better in November 2014 than they were in March 2014?

I've got CU, Utah, Washington, Wazzu and USC as better.

Arizona about the same.

Stanford and Cal as somewhat worse.

UCLA, Oregon, Oregon State and Arizona State as a lot worse.
 
This thread is goddamn midseason mode. I've drank too much coffee on an empty stomach with the anticipation of four buddy's on planes for a weekend of things we'll never tell our children about. And then I have a bachelor party in Tahoe next week.

Here's what I think about Stanford because no one asked: I love their known commodities. Anthony Brown is probably the most underrated player heading into this season. He's a sniper. But they're going to be reliant on youth and I don't love that for Dawkins and with a volume guy like Randle at the healm. All of that said - people seem to really like Pickens and an angry Nastic is a nasty Nastic. How pissed off for greatness can they get?
 
Let's look at it a different way.

Which Pac-12 teams are better in November 2014 than they were in March 2014?

I've got CU, Utah, Washington, Wazzu and USC as better.

CU, Utah & USC - agreed. Washington - quasi-agree, but they were 9th, so that's not saying much. Curious why you think Wazzu is better though.

Arizona about the same.

Stanford and Cal as somewhat worse.

Agreed on all 3, but Furd has the potential to make a leap if their frosh are legit - which I think they are.

UCLA, Oregon, Oregon State and Arizona State as a lot worse.

Agreed.
 
Oh, and because someone (Goose) did ask for my opinions on UW here are those:

I like Romar. I'd like to study the cycles of his program because they're unique especially if they do competitively this year (possibility in a pretty wide-open middle tier and rock bottom, bottom) and the talent in 2015 and 16 he's stock piliing pans out. With regards to this year, they're going to have actual posts to occupy the high post offense. As it's been explained to me, that's important. LoRo has coached a top-50 OR% team every season since 2004. Last season they ranked 148th. BRING ON THE BODIES!
 
[MENTION=127]Goose[/MENTION]...

Regarding Wazzu, Lacy's back. Everyone else was irrelevant last year. Coach is upgraded. They're better.

P.S. I like Cheatum, too. Good JUCO PF for them to add.
 
I guess Lacy alone makes them better, but REALLY surprised you have coach being upgraded. I'm not an Ichabod Crane fan, but I honestly think I'd rather ride that train than hire Ernie Kent.
 
I guess Lacy alone makes them better, but REALLY surprised you have coach being upgraded. I'm not an Ichabod Crane fan, but I honestly think I'd rather ride that train than hire Ernie Kent.

Say what you want about Kent, but the dude made two Elite 8s and has a ton of connects on the west coast for recruiting. It's an upgrade for Wazzu.

(Best part of that hire was getting Kent off PACN, though. I celebrated. :lol:)
 
A) [MENTION=127]Goose[/MENTION] you have to know better than to buy into Stanford.....Dawkins could have a coach Cal recruiting class and I'd still only put his team with a 1 in 4 chance to make the tourney

B) @buffnik the P12 nets has me too skewed on Ernie, I know his resume, but listening to him the past couple of seasons almost makes it seem impossible that resume isn't a fake
 
Awesome. UCLA set up to once again sneak in during the dead time and play in a dead Keg with no students. Enough is enough. UCLA needs to be circled. We need to put major emphasis on beating them this season.
 
Awesome. UCLA set up to once again sneak in during the dead time and play in a dead Keg with no students. Enough is enough. UCLA needs to be circled. We need to put major emphasis on beating them this season.

very much THIS
 
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