Statistical analysis based off past data will typically show you who the top dogs regularly are. After that, it is a crap shoot and can lead to many difference scenarios. I take a 9/10-horse race as a for instance and ...
FAVORITE/BEST ODDS-Usually 2/5 to 5/2 odds (Top 8 teams): A great horse is a great horse: Alabama, Ohio State, Oregon, FSU All Have Top 10 ranking average over last 5 years. In a 10 race horse card, these guys would be the favorite in any race. OSU would be considered a 2/5 horse with the likelihood of a national title repeat.
This group usually is always in the money and wins the majority of the races. For an Alabama they are like all the horses that win 2 of 3 legs of the Triple Crown.
The Place and Show choices-Usually 5/2 to 6:1 odds (9-19)-This group is the Baylor's, Georgia's, Auburn's, Ole Miss, LSU's, Michigan State, USC, TCU type. These horses are always in the mix but the conditions can totally throw them for a loop. They struggle in their own conference against the Top dogs and always lose that one game that keeps them from being the best. They may even be on the edge of the Top 4 but trip up somewhere.
That horse on the cusp or fading from glory/4th choice-Usually a 6:1-12:1 odds (20-40): Boise State, Utah State, Arkansas, Mizzou, Clemson, Notre Dame, ASU, Arizona, etc.
Absolutely no one believes this group can win the race but they have a lot of supporters that think they are close and will put money on them to maybe surprise and win their conference or push for a BCS bowl. None believe they are championship level though but hey maybe they can push the big guy and luck into a win. Also the type that is either coming back from many years ago glory or falling away from glory.
5th/6th horse-15:1-20:1 odds (41-65): Georgia Tech, Tennessee, Mississippi State, UCLA, Utah State, etc.
This group is nice. They may sneak into a conference title game or have shown promise. They make the Top 25 here and there but toil in the middle. One week they are great and take 2nd/3rd and upset a trifecta bet, the next they are losing a close game against the 4th/5th horse. A lot of times this horse was at the top but hasn't done anything for awhile and lost it.
7th/8th-25:1 or worse (66-100): CU, lowest tier Power 5 schools and average non Power 5 schools:
This group has little hope. They are usually outclassed, still trying to find the right race distance and need to find their groove. Occasionally this 7th or 8th horse finally finds that groove and finds their way into a trifecta bet because things fall into place. I take CSU as a for instance last year, Vanderbilt in 2013/2012, San Jose State in 2012, Cincy 2011. KU would be that 100 team that is in Power 5 so they can't be as bad as bottom 20 teams.
9/10 No shot (101-120): This horse only beats a 7/8 team in a blue moon. They are thrown in to pace a race or slow down a favorite. Otherwise, they are worthless. These are the non-Power 5 group that should be at the FCS-Div 1AA level almost. Think Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, Idaho. Even at their worse CU was not here but damn close in Embrees 2012 campaign.
Any of these horses other than the 9/10 can move up or down. CU has seen all occasions. I will do a last 50 or so years to show similarities to an old race horse:
1963-1973 (Crowder): Started as a 5/6 horse after coming off that 2, 3/4 guy that gad some great years under Ward and Grandelius but 3 years of crap made him that 5/6 horse. From 1965-1967 he went to 3/4 and even the 2 horse. '68 brought him down to 5/6 horse but quickly spent 69-72 back in that 2-4 range.
1973-1978 (Mallory): Same start as Crowder, but quickly was back into the 2-4 range. Left as the 5th horse and led to...
1979-1981 (Fairbanks): Horse fell apart and by the end was 6th at start but ended as the 7th/8th horse.
1982-1994 (McCartney): Sat in the 7th/8th range. His 2nd year made people think he could move to the 5th/6th horse but quickly got knocked back in Year 3. 1985-1987 cemented him into the 4th horse. Another big year in 1988 had people using CU in their trifecta bets as the 2nd-3rd choice. 1989 made CU a favorite for 1990 and after the national title, 1991-1996 saw CU as Favorite with some 2nd/3rd years but were considered an FSU/Oregon type that is normally on top.
1995-1998 (New-weasel):Started on top of the world but signs showed that he was headed towards the 2/3 range at the end of '96. '97 saw CU move to a 4th choice type and kind of hang there while being a sneaky exacta/trifecta wager in Slick Rick's last season.
1999-2005 (Barnett): What a ****ing roller coaster! Barnett started as the 4th horse in '99 and quickly went to the dreaded 5th/6th in '00. A resurgence in 2001 led CU to a 2nd/3rd horse and brought promise. 2002 stayed that course. A rough 2003 made CU go back to the 4th horse with fears of moving back to 5th/6th. 2004 and most of 2005 kept them there and maybe sniffing the money horses asses but the ending led them to wondering if 5th/6th type was up next.
2006-2010 (He Who Shall not be named): The first game was enough for me to see we were hosed. There was no doubt, we were 5th/6th. The 2nd season brought that promise back and while still in that group but dead even with that 4th horse for our next race certainly! False hope, after the 2008 season led the Buffs to stay 5th/6th the following two years showed we were closer to the 7th/8th horse. Hawk love left and while the record showed 5th/6th the state of the program showed we were closer to being that forgotten guy that hasn't done **** in years.
2011-2012 (Embree): Yep, we are definitely the 7th horse after 2011 but people still hold out some hope and still bet because this is CU after all. They won a national title 20 years ago. Oh ****, 2012 yep we should be shot and put down.
2013-current (MacIntyre): Started out as the 8th horse that still gets a bet to money and the way things were ran, the way the first season played out, we were somewhere closer to 6th horse than the 8th horse after 2013 right? 2014 was like getting to 2nd base repeatedly but never getting to even get to 3rd. AKA the Rockies. Not bad enough to be the worse horse in the race but we were definitely the 7th guy and 8th in a good field.
So that leads to 2015, I see CU somewhere along the lines of last year's NC State, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee. They have struggled for many years while showing some hope at times, but still nothing special. They play in solid conferences and can win out of division, but are lucky to do better than get a couple wins in conference and finish higher than near the bottom in the Pac 12. That's why I see CU as the 5th/6th horse that will go 4-0 in non-conference and 2-7 to 3-6 in conference.
So with my horse analogy, even the crappiest CU teams of all times weren't completely worthless. They would have been competitive in the Sun Belt, MAC, MWC or CUSA but be 3-9 or 4-8 that year. If we had played in those conferences this year, CU would have been around the Utah State, Air Force, level. This year CU would challenge for the title in most any Non-Power 5 conference in '15.
cguru:
