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Statistical Analysis Projections Don't Like CU

DiggerBuffs said:
Or the most ridiculously long winded babbling crap and proof I am lucky I am married or I may be a horse gambling addict. I could have also made this a poker final table so yeah that would be an issue too.


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CU is a two pair, 9s over 5s.
 
DiggerBuffs said:
If we end up with only 4 wins, this season is a bust. Need 5 bare bones minimum. Another 3 that are less than 7 either our way or the other. 3 more competitive but a score and change. Only two where we have no chance, Oregon and whoever else that may be. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Yep. Four would be a BAD season.
 
Buffnik said:
I declare Digger the winner (no matter what he might have written in that post).

Mtn is ducking his head in shame and awe right about now.

:smile2:
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Hopefully Mtn is not a competitive person. This could be the start of something awful.
 
Even though I lived a few blocks from Pimlico, never did understand the odds making with horses. The things I've learned on AllBuffs.
 
buffedup said:
I'm at a point nowadays where I just don't care about the statistics. I'm sure that Colorado was ranked pretty highly based on these stats going into 2006 and we know how that went. All Colorado needs to do is lineup on game days and win the damn game.
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Can never tell where the bear (or buffalo) is going by looking at the tracks of where he came from, any beginning outdoorsman knows that, but these stats geeks do not!

If these stats meant crap, then why play the games, except on computers....no team would EVER experience a turnaround in fortune, San Jose or even Stanford would still be disasters rather than greatly improved year over year.

All these stats geek clowns really want, is an "edge" in predicting games.
 
Statistical analysis is really useful to find manfacturing trends when you make billions of a product. There are far too many variables in college football to put much stock in its use here. It's really just something to put on a web page to collect ad money.
 
zbuff said:
Statistical analysis is really useful to find manfacturing trends when you make billions of a product. There are far too many variables in college football to put much stock in its use here. It's really just something to put on a web page to collect ad money.
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that might be overreaching.
 
zbuff said:
Then let me give you another fact you'll like even less: statistics are applicable to entire populations but are worthless looking at individuals within the population.
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That's much less controversial :lol:
 
DiggerBuffs said:
If we end up with only 4 wins, this season is a bust. Need 5 bare bones minimum. Another 3 that are less than 7 either our way or the other. 3 more competitive but a score and change. Only two where we have no chance, Oregon and whoever else that may be.


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I see your point, but I wouldn't consider it a bust if we win a conference game. I'd love to see 4-0 OOC and win 3 conference games, but I have no idea where those 3 wins would come from. To me 4 is the bare minimum.
 
MiamiBuffs said:
All things being equal (yoy talent infusions) how can we expect more wins?
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Well Juco d-line additions should help with the defense. Increasing turnover margin would be huge and looks to be one of the biggest determinant of success in college football.
 
onealcd said:
Well Juco d-line additions should help with the defense. Increasing turnover margin would be huge and looks to be one of the biggest determinant of success in college football.
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I dont have the stomach (see the LE thread yesterday) to follow individual players or recruits so thanks for filling me in. I am most curious to see if Leavitt has an impact along with an additional year of S&C.
 
MiamiBuffs said:
I dont have the stomach (see the LE thread yesterday) to follow individual players or recruits so thanks for filling me in. I am most curious to see if Leavitt has an impact along with an additional year of S&C.
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Yeah. To me this year comes down to creating pressure with the Juco additions, Samson and hopefully some more beef from the S&C program and then Sefo limiting turnovers. Do that and I can see a bowl game but if it doesn't happen expect more heartbreaking losses and a ****ty season.
 
Bufffan68 said:
I see your point, but I wouldn't consider it a bust if we win a conference game. I'd love to see 4-0 OOC and win 3 conference games, but I have no idea where those 3 wins would come from. To me 4 is the bare minimum.
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4 wins is a bad season.
 
One or two more defensive stops and one less INT in the fourth quarter and CU will look like a hugely improved team.
 
mdelpizzo_1 said:
60's seems about right for us, until we prove otherwise. I'm still holding out for what Cigar Aficionado has to say.
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Until you see some of the teams ahead. TT, UW, Cal, UVA, OSU, and a few others have no business being >15 spots ahead of us
 
'Tini said:
Until you see some of the teams ahead. TT, UW, Cal, UVA, OSU, and a few others have no business being >15 spots ahead of us
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They have all won more consistently than us (past performance) and recruited better than us (possible future success), now if I agree with the rankings or not, I can still understand why they're ranked higher than us. We will probably wind up middle of the pack of the group you have listed, but I wouldn't think we'll be the leader of that pack.
 
mdelpizzo_1 said:
They have all won more consistently than us (past performance) and recruited better than us (possible future success), now if I agree with the rankings or not, I can still understand why they're ranked higher than us. We will probably wind up middle of the pack of the group you have listed, but I wouldn't think we'll be the leader of that pack.
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But there needs to be more than that, variables such as returning yards and other measures of returning quality players need to be used. UW lost 3 first round picks + their QB. OSU has a new HC + lost Mannion. UVA has consistently recruited well under London, who went 5-7 last year and 2-10 the year before. TT went 4-8 last year...with wins over Central Ark, UTEP, KU, and ISU, so while their record was better, that's a terrible win list (and yes, it would be for CU as well).

Considering the games we played against UW, Cal, and OSU just from the list I originally used, and what we return vs what those teams lose, it's tough to believe they are that much better than us. There may be a gap, but I don't think it's that big given the on-field performances against them.
 
'Tini said:
But there needs to be more than that, variables such as returning yards and other measures of returning quality players need to be used. UW lost 3 first round picks + their QB. OSU has a new HC + lost Mannion. UVA has consistently recruited well under London, who went 5-7 last year and 2-10 the year before. TT went 4-8 last year...with wins over Central Ark, UTEP, KU, and ISU, so while their record was better, that's a terrible win list (and yes, it would be for CU as well).

Considering the games we played against UW, Cal, and OSU just from the list I originally used, and what we return vs what those teams lose, it's tough to believe they are that much better than us. There may be a gap, but I don't think it's that big given the on-field performances against them.
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Where do you see us then? In the 40's?
 
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