Sunday Morning QB makes his prediction for the Buffs

[BuffsRising]

Secondary ought to be the same Are you kidding? They are replacing both CBs and one of those was very good. At best the secondary is completely unknown, at worst it is a step back.

My take on the original article is that, from the outside looking in, it's right on target. I believe Hawkins in on the right track and the Buffs will surprise people this year. Surprising people means that the team has a lot of unknowns or isn't expected to do great things.

Total unknowns (IMHO):
OL - They will gel or not. To me this is the key to the entire season. The articles statistics about Cody playing well when the running game is going is right on.
Running game - In addition to the OL being an unknown, the running game is as well. Will Sumler and/or Lockridge step up? Is Scott as good as advertised? We all want to think so, but it doesn't mean anything until it happens on the field.
Secondary - Losing Wheatley & Burney hurts. I know everyone focuses on TWheat but Burney was solid on the other side last year (watch the end of the OU game again if you have any doubt about that).
Pass Rush - Why exactly do you think this is going to get better? The only answer could possibly be, "because it can't get worse".

If all of those fall into place well, the Buffs are looking at a breakout season but that's a lot of IFs.

Twheat and Burney are being replaced by Jimmy Smith and Gardner McKay. I don't think that is a huge drop off. There is a reason that TWheat was only supposed to be a 4th round pick until he ran a great 40 time; he had a so-so senior year. And is Dykes going to benefit from having a year in the big 12 under his belt? Is Ryan Walters going to have a big senior year? I think so. Is Jimmy Smith going to keep improving? I think so.

As for the pass rush, "can't get any worse" is actually quite a good reason to think that Conrad Obi and Marquez Herrod can improve the pass rush, and if Drew Hudgins gives us anything at all, that's a bonus.

For the running backs, all we've lost is Hugh Charles; he was a good back but he wasn't a star or anything. Sumler and Lockridge will be fine even if Polk and Scott can't give us much.

I'm not arguing that we are going to win 12 games; I'm just saying that there is no good reason to think that a team that played as many freshmen as we did won't get better. And there is certainly no good reason to think we will be worse, certainly not 3-9. That's bullsh*t.

 

[BuffsRising]

No offense, but what are you basing this on? Smith the best corner since Figures? Say what?

I look at the secondary and I see some decent players. I don't see any real stars.

What I said was that Jimmy Smith CAN be the best corner since Figures, and I base that on his play last year as a freshman, his size and ball skills. Its been a long time since we've had a corner that was as tall as most of the guys he's covering, and guys who play the ball have been pretty rare around here. Look at last year's Missouri game if you need a reminder of what happens when small, outmatched cb's play receivers man on deep balls and then don't even play the ball.

 

[Liver]

Twheat and Burney are being replaced by Jimmy Smith and Gardner McKay. I don't think that is a huge drop off. There is a reason that TWheat was only supposed to be a 4th round pick until he ran a great 40 time; he had a so-so senior year. And is Dykes going to benefit from having a year in the big 12 under his belt? Is Ryan Walters going to have a big senior year? I think so. Is Jimmy Smith going to keep improving? I think so.

As for the pass rush, "can't get any worse" is actually quite a good reason to think that Conrad Obi and Marquez Herrod can improve the pass rush, and if Drew Hudgins gives us anything at all, that's a bonus.

For the running backs, all we've lost is Hugh Charles; he was a good back but he wasn't a star or anything. Sumler and Lockridge will be fine even if Polk and Scott can't give us much.

I'm not arguing that we are going to win 12 games; I'm just saying that there is no good reason to think that a team that played as many freshmen as we did won't get better. And there is certainly no good reason to think we will be worse, certainly not 3-9. That's bullsh*t.

that is some pretty optimistic thinking right... not that there is anything wrong with optimism.

t-wheat is in the nfl and burney was our best returning corner. there WILL be a dropoff from last year. the secondary got lit up like a christmas tree throughout the spring and our wrs aren't even particularly big. most of our corners, like mckay, are very small and are going to be challenged by the gigantic wrs in this conference. smith appears to have the physical tools but he is in the doghouse and we will see if he even cracks the starting lineup. thus far, he hasn't been able to do that. i think we are a little better off, at least on paper, at safety provided that walters can go the full year and avoid injuries. dykes is serviceable but not the fastest guy in the world. after those 2, however, we have some serious depth issues.

hugh wasn't a star? that's just crazy talk. he was our best rb. sumler looks like he has stepped it up in the spring a bit so i am excited to see how he does. lockridge has wheels but is he an every down back? frankly, i think these guys are just keeping the seat warm for d. scott. starting a true frosh at rb is going to be challenging--- there will be a dropoff initially at least.

the pass rush has to improve. that part i agree with.

 

[sackman]

hudson won the thorpe too.

and mark haynes was damned good back in the day. and cullen bryant before that.

ben kelly and strickland were both arguably better than t-wheat.

i'd put t-wheat in the top 10 corners all-time at CU, but he is not #2 below figures. that's too high.

Yes, Hudson won it too. I couldn't remember whether it was Hudson or Bradford that had won the award.

I don't think I'd necessarily put Wheatly at #2 either. Ben Kelly was a terrific return guy, but his cornerback play couldn't hold TWheat's jock. Going back to Cullen Bryant and Mark Haynes isn't really where I was coming from with the original post. I said TWheat was probably the best cornerback since the Figures/Bradford days. I suppose Hudson falls in that period and I'll admit he's better than Wheatley, but Wheatley is a solid #4 behind those three in my book. Yes, I think he's better than Strickland and Kelly.

 

[BuffsRising]

that is some pretty optimistic thinking right... not that there is anything wrong with optimism.

t-wheat is in the nfl and burney was our best returning corner. there WILL be a dropoff from last year. the secondary got lit up like a christmas tree throughout the spring and our wrs aren't even particularly big. most of our corners, like mckay, are very small and are going to be challenged by the gigantic wrs in this conference. smith appears to have the physical tools but he is in the doghouse and we will see if he even cracks the starting lineup. thus far, he hasn't been able to do that. i think we are a little better off, at least on paper, at safety provided that walters can go the full year and avoid injuries. dykes is serviceable but not the fastest guy in the world. after those 2, however, we have some serious depth issues.

hugh wasn't a star? that's just crazy talk. he was our best rb. sumler looks like he has stepped it up in the spring a bit so i am excited to see how he does. lockridge has wheels but is he an every down back? frankly, i think these guys are just keeping the seat warm for d. scott. starting a true frosh at rb is going to be challenging--- there will be a dropoff initially at least.

the pass rush has to improve. that part i agree with.

The fact that Hugh Charles was our best running back doesn't make him a star. It took him until half-way through his senior year to stop running out of bounds when anybody was near him. A Bobby Purify? No. A Cortlen Johnson? almost. I'm not trying to bash Hugh, he was a good player, but that's not a star.

 

[NW Buff]

Twheat and Burney are being replaced by Jimmy Smith and Gardner McKay. I don't think that is a huge drop off. There is a reason that TWheat was only supposed to be a 4th round pick until he ran a great 40 time; he had a so-so senior year. And is Dykes going to benefit from having a year in the big 12 under his belt? Is Ryan Walters going to have a big senior year? I think so. Is Jimmy Smith going to keep improving? I think so.

As for the pass rush, "can't get any worse" is actually quite a good reason to think that Conrad Obi and Marquez Herrod can improve the pass rush, and if Drew Hudgins gives us anything at all, that's a bonus.

For the running backs, all we've lost is Hugh Charles; he was a good back but he wasn't a star or anything. Sumler and Lockridge will be fine even if Polk and Scott can't give us much.

I'm not arguing that we are going to win 12 games; I'm just saying that there is no good reason to think that a team that played as many freshmen as we did won't get better. And there is certainly no good reason to think we will be worse, certainly not 3-9. That's bullsh*t.

For the Buff faithful, there is good reason to believe that these things will happen. That Smith, McKay, Obi, Herrod, Sumler, Lockridge, Scott, TMT, etc will all step into their roles and make the world tremble. To somebody outside the program (like the author of the article), there is no reason to think any of them (except Scott) will show up and do anything special. So, given his perspective, his analysis is right on.

Absolute wins (3):
CSU
Eastern Washington
Iowa State

Looking at last year's performance (see KSU, ISU), it is possible to see the Buffs lose every other game on that schedule. I don't believe that will happen but I can see how somebody not associated with the program could see that as a worst case scenario.

It's an early prediction (says so in the title). I'm fine with it. Now the team needs to step up and show him how wrong he is. Potential is potential, results happen on the field.

 

[Idot Buff]

All I can say is...I cannot wait until the season starts....

 

[87Buffster]

The grammar police are on an emergency dispatch! :smile2:

the cupboard was bear when hawk came here.

the cupboard was bare when hawk came here.

Was the cupboard a large, omnivorous, furry mammal, or empty?

I think a corps could lead this team to 3-9 record though.

I think a corpse could lead this team to 3-9 record though.

Are you suggesting that a body of persons acting together or associated under common direction could lead this team, or do you mean the dead body of a human being? Come to think of it, a corpse could do even better... consider Bobby Bowden and Joe Paterno - both of them must have at least one foot in the grave by now. :drink2:

 

[jrod212]

87buffster, kinda gay. just saying.

 

[87Buffster]

87buffster, kinda gay. just saying.

Damn. So much pressure to be witty with these guys.

 

[SBG]

Yes, Hudson won it too. I couldn't remember whether it was Hudson or Bradford that had won the award.

I don't think I'd necessarily put Wheatly at #2 either. Ben Kelly was a terrific return guy, but his cornerback play couldn't hold TWheat's jock. Going back to Cullen Bryant and Mark Haynes isn't really where I was coming from with the original post. I said TWheat was probably the best cornerback since the Figures/Bradford days. I suppose Hudson falls in that period and I'll admit he's better than Wheatley, but Wheatley is a solid #4 behind those three in my book. Yes, I think he's better than Strickland and Kelly.

I wasn't into CU football growing up, but I looked at when most of those played and they all played when we were a top 10 team. Geez, I wonder if having a great DL and subsequently a good pass rush would help a CB. We have great interior linemen with Nichols and Big George, but our lack of a pass rush was certainly difficult for our CBs and secondary last year.

And that MU game I'm going to totally blame Collins and Brown for that mistake. Daniels said he was looking forward to our Cover 1/2 scheme. He torched us. That's just bad game planning on our part and good game planning by Pinkel (did I just say that?!?).

What about the fact that TWheat had 3 ints against TT and even though Crabtree got over 100 yards he almost had a 4th (should have gone for the deflection and not the int)? Arguably the best receiver last year was held to 1 TD and 10.9 ypc, not to mention the play where he stripped the ball out of Crabtree's hands.

Or what about the fact that OU's best receiver Malcolm Kelly was held without a reception (2nd rounder in draft this year)? What about his instincts off the ball to force a drop that forced OU to punt?

TWheat will be missed. Why oh why did the Pats have to draft him?

 

[jrod212]

woulda been cool if he was drafted by the l33t ownage giants.

 

[Darth Snow]

Anybody who thinks our secondary won't be way worse than last year is drinking to much of the Buff Gold they serve on Walnut street. I love that way of thinking, but jesus, you lose a first day draft pick and then your only other experienced starter at CB is out with injuries and you just expect these kids to step up and be just as good? That is not impossible, but just extremely unlikely...

Florida had to replace their entire secondary last year. They did with mostly 4 and 5 star recruits. Those elite athletes got TORCHED most of the year. I only hope these young guys mature quick because Nebraska and MIzzou are going to go nuts otherwise....

On the other hand, its going to be nice to watch CU's offense just obliterate opposing teams (if the Oline does what we all think it will). I think SMQ did a good job breaking down Cody's performances, but really gave NO credit to the guy for doing what he did with a very young crop of WR's and a line that was not very good at pass blocking. Cody is going to break some records this year (again!).

 

[2HellNback]

Let's be realistic here... With a murderous schedule, and still a very YOUNG team, I can't really argue with his best case/worst case/and prediction, though I hope it's wrong.

 

[Deleted member 807]

Both the best case and worst case are unacceptable.

 

[87toInfinity]

Damn. So much pressure to be witty with these guys.

No worries, other 87. :thumbsup:

 

[FChairbanks]

okay...this kind of thread makes me prematurely wish for the fall to be here...and i have a summer in colorado to look forward to...

here is my take:

ooc...we split it 2-2

first four conference games are a bitch...1-3

now we are heading into the final leg of the season at 3-5...

can hawk step it up?

i think so...we go into the unl game on the strength of a 3 game win streak...6-5...

the "etc." don't have a chance in our final game....buffs are bowl bound at the end of the year at 7-5...



:thumbsup:

 

[87Buffster]

The CU opponents breakdown into 3 groups this season. First, the teams we *should* beat: CSU, EW, ISU. EW went 8-4, but against Big Sky competition. ISU in 07 was a fluke, and we get revenge in Boulder. 3 - 0

Teams that were batting about .500 last year like us: FSU, KSU, aTm, neb, OSU. We take 3 out of these 5, maybe 4. My guess for the wins are KSU, OSU, neb. 3 - 2

Teams that were top ten: TX, WV, MU, KU finished a combined 45 - 8, including the bowl games. We notch one upset out of these four. Its a tossup for that being WV or TX, thanks to being at Folsom. 1 -3.

So that totals 7 - 5. Optimistic maybe but my best guess. Would not be shocked with 8 - 4. Would be elated with 9 - 3, but that takes a lot of koolaid to start thinking that will happen as of today.

 

[buffwings]

The CU opponents breakdown into 3 groups this season. First, the teams we *should* beat: CSU, EW, ISU. EW went 8-4, but against Big Sky competition. ISU in 07 was a fluke, and we get revenge in Boulder. 3 - 0

Teams that were batting about .500 last year like us: FSU, KSU, aTm, neb, OSU. We take 3 out of these 5, maybe 4. My guess for the wins are KSU, OSU, neb. 3 - 2

Teams that were top ten: TX, WV, MU, KU finished a combined 45 - 8, including the bowl games. We notch one upset out of these four. Its a tossup for that being WV or TX, thanks to being at Folsom. 1 -3.

So that totals 7 - 5. Optimistic maybe but my best guess. Would not be shocked with 8 - 4. Would be elated with 9 - 3, but that takes a lot of koolaid to start thinking that will happen as of today.

Good analysis, I pretty much agree with all that. I predict 7-5, a bowl win gives us 8-5, which is good momentum going into 2009. Anything more that than 7-5 would be gravy and will have all of us ecstatic.

 

[Keesy9]

I think 8-4 is the right record for us this season and 2nd place in the Big 12 north (Missou). I wouldn't be surprised to see Missou go 10-2 or 11-1 this season. Missou OOC is Illinois, SE Missou State, Nevada, Buffalo, and they have Baylor, Texas, and Ok St from the south this year. But for CU you should have 3 wins with CSU, EW, and ISU(3-0). I'd say a very good chance of beating Nebraska, OK St, KSU, and aTm(3-1). I would say a good chance of beating FSU, and Kansas (1-1). And very tough games against WVU, Texas and Missou(1-2). Keep in mind Kansas's schedule was a joke last season and they lost a lot of players, half of FSU's team is suspended their first 3 games (we are their 4th game), aTm has a new coach and new offense, Texas lost their top 3? WRs, RB, and TE. CU is a team on the rise and if two teams are similar in talent I will take the team on the rise over the team on decline any day.

 

[Mick Ronson]

i can't believe i watched the youtube of the end of the ISU game. why not just stab a fork in the back of my hand.

 

[absinthe]

You guys are far more optimistic than I am, I think we are looking at 5-7 or 6-6 again and then a huge break out when D-scott is a soph, and the whole offense has a year together ubnder its belt. By them well have huge experienced line Cody should be well matured and lay of the damn picks and Scott with have a year of college ball under his belt.

Just think about how good we could have been last year of Cody cut the picks down to around 9 and we have a hair better running game.

 

[neil29fp]

Well I love kool-aid, especially the purple stuff. I'm predicting 9-3. Losing to UT, MU, and WV. At worst I see 7-5.

 

[96 Buff]

I don't predict losses. 14-0 & MNC, baby!

 

[AustinTxBuff]

I don't predict losses. 14-0 & MNC, baby!

:yeahthat::gobuffs::drink: