It'll be interesting to see if the staff remains the same.
I agree with you completely on the face of this. I think your point is well taken. There's one angle of this though that I struggle with: Using the above numbers, it means our record for being able to achieve the 40%/out-rebound goal is just 49-118. That's a pretty low percentage of the time we hit the goal. And that factors in the glory years.
When viewed that way, it's little bit like me saying that all I need to do to drop 20 pounds is stop drinking and eat better. Trouble is I have a long track record that suggests this is not likely to happen.
Hopefully someone that understands statistical analysis will point out the fallacy of my argument so I can get that stupid notion out of my head.
Delving deeper into that, let's say that the program hits its numbers 1/3 of the time and doesn't hit them 2/3 of the time over a 30 game season as a reasonable target. It's a recipe for winning 19 or 20 games a season and being somewhere on the bubble. \
Are we really trying to convince ourselves we don't need to revamp the offense? Even if that leads to more regular season wins it likely leads to a one and done NCAAT ceiling
The offense was revamped before this season. What we're saying is that they shouldn't go through that process again. Emphasis has to be on getting back to fundamentals for next year.
People generally have much higher tolerance for good offense and bad defense than the other way around, but we've seen what wins here.
I mostly agree Nik, but, the offense didn't have to be revamped, and other than Scott handling the ball too much on the perimeter(which is on purpose apparently), its not much different than last year's motion. Add some back cuts, pick n roll, help Scott out on the double team in the post other than a guard with his hands up on the perimeter(kind of unbelievable this wasn't addressed in the off season). Seems like all the complaints we had last year are still valid this year.
I've been trying to picture this year's offense with Nate or Spencer directing it. I think it would be much different with that. We haven't had PG play this year and our primary ball handler is Ski (a ball stopper rather than a motion & catch/shoot guy).
I think the worst thing going on, though, is that we don't have guys who can beat someone off the dribble and will finish at the rim through contact. Seen a bit of that from Dustin and J-Hop, but that's about it and even those 2 seem to be looking for a foul call & avoiding a block instead of focusing on finishing the play with a made basket. Conceptually, making the other team's rim protectors move away from the basket with bigs who can knock down 15-20 foot shots is a good idea... if your bigs can knock down those shots and you have 1s thru 3s who can take advantage of this by getting to the rim. The spacing also requires consistent shooters from the 1s thru 3s so that the defense can't simply pack things in. Tad seems to have adjusted recruiting to put more emphasis on the shooting this system requires.
Also, I wonder how much of the new offense is about attracting bigs who have NBA aspirations. NBA isn't an elbow & block game for the 4s and 5s any more. They've got to be able to handle a bit and stretch a defense.
Something I've been curious about. I don't claim basketball expertise, I like to watch games and see the Buffs outscore opponents. And I played a bit in high school. Why is it frequently stated or implied that Tad Boyle is clueless on offensive schemes, inbound plays, etc? He starred in HS, had 4 years of significant contribution at Kansas, has assisted or coached at 6 different college teams. Surely he's seen plenty of offensive schemes that work or don't, inbound plays that work or don't, etc? I fully understand the frustration and the appearance of perhaps coaching failures, and also that many on this forum have expertise in basketball, but it makes sense to me that the problem is not Tad scratching his head without a clue, but perhaps something in the match of players to roles, and probably players that Tad thought could fill roles that haven't proven out.