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Takeaways from the game? Revised expectations?

NW Buff

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I was just looking at the schedule and after watching the other teams, I think a bowl appearance comes down to either a win at ASU or a win against USC. If I'm picking between those two teams I think it's too hard to win in Tempe and we are overdue/it's a home game against USC.

Then again the sky is the limit this year if the Buffs continue to improve. I don't see a W at Oregon, Washington, or at Utah regardless.

Airforce Win
@ASU Loss (Swing Game)
UA Win
@UO Loss
@ WSU Loss
USC Win (Swing Game)
@ UCLA Win
Stanford Win
Washington Loss
@ Utah Loss
With your predictions, the Buffs go to a bowl if they lose both ASU and USC.
 

onealcd

Club Member
Club Member

That’s not good. Better after the second half against CSU but that is not encouraging
 

Shldr2Shldr

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Club Member

That’s not good. Better after the second half against CSU but that is not encouraging
Back to back weeks of allowing 31 pts too. Defense gives up WAY too much in the 1st half. They seriously lock-in after half time though. They need to figure out before we get into Pac-12 play though, because the offense won't always be able to bail them out.
 

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
Club Member
Junta Member
Back to back weeks of allowing 31 pts too. Defense gives up WAY too much in the 1st half. They seriously lock-in after half time though. They need to figure out before we get into Pac-12 play though, because the offense won't always be able to bail them out.
31 points isn't what we want, but it's not as bad as most think. Average points for a team is around 27 these days, iirc.

As long as we keep playing good offense and winning the turnover battle for those extra possessions, giving points in that range is still winning football. I'd love to see that number get down into the mid twenties, though, so we could have confidence that our offense delivering 30 or more in a game is almost always going to be enough to win.
 

Shldr2Shldr

Club Member
Club Member
31 points isn't what we want, but it's not as bad as most think. Average points for a team is around 27 these days, iirc.

As long as we keep playing good offense and winning the turnover battle for those extra possessions, giving points in that range is still winning football. I'd love to see that number get down into the mid twenties, though, so we could have confidence that our offense delivering 30 or more in a game is almost always going to be enough to win.
Same mindset. I want them to get that down to 27-28 just because it takes a little pressure off of the offense.
 

BuffUp

[insert punctuation here]
Club Member
I am so impressed by our coaching staff. HCMT is great so far, but his coaching staff is doing great things -
 

ahoelsken

Well-Known Member
I would argue CU is about what we expected: Good offense, questionable but improving defense.

It's the rest of the schedule that has changed a bit:

About what we expected:
Zona still beatable

Jury still out:
Utah. Don't look great, don't look awful.
Wash state: Thanks for not losing to a FCS school yet this year.

Easier games:
ASU looks like trash. Glad we're getting them early
Stanford doesn't look like anything special
UCLA LOL
Washington doesn't look like a no hoper

Harder
USC looks like they might figure it out.
Oregon looks good.


I think our floor is we win:
AFA

2 of ASU, Zona, UCLA

1 of Stanford, Washington, Washington state, Utah

0 of Oregon, USC

6 win floor, baby!!!
USC hasn't figured anything out-After Saturday, they play Utah at home, and then go to Washington and Notre Dame for their next three (I think there's a bye in there too). They could easily be 3-3 when Arizona goes out there. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.
 
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Bill Cody

Club Member
Club Member
I think we’re going to see us lose some games that we shouldn’t, and win a game or two that we shouldn’t. At the end of the day, I expect to be at 6 wins minimum, and see 8 wins as a real possibility.

We will lose some winnable games because Steven starts slow and our defense isn’t sharp, and everyone will be very frustrated by that.

We will win a game or two with our Defense (I expect them to be a pretty damn solid unit by year end). We will win a game or four because Montez absolutely lights it up.

We will all be happy by year end because the growth of the team, and path forward for this team to be very good will seem more clear to us (and the CFB world) than it has in 20+ years. We will parlay this into signing some solid DB’s and DLinemen.
 

Jello Bear

VP of Quantified Self
Club Member
I voted 6-6 at the beginning of the season (no specificity about where they'd come from) and I think I'm staying put with that prediction. The team showed grit in two consecutive 2nd halves, but the 1st halves leave a lot to be desired. A lot.

Until they show me 4 solid quarters, I'm going to assume we're going to occasionally get too far behind for comebacks. Especially on the road.
 

DrunkPanda

Well-Known Member
USC hasn't figured anything out-After Saturday, they play Utah at home, and then go to Washington and Notre Dame for their next three (I think there's a bye in there too). They could easily be 3-3 when Arizona goes out there. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.
They destroyed stanford. Theyve definitely figured out SOMETHING. It seems like with the switch to the spread they are actually using the talent they have on offense instead of letting it all go to waste, which is scary
 
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onealcd

Club Member
Club Member
I voted 6-6 at the beginning of the season (no specificity about where they'd come from) and I think I'm staying put with that prediction. The team showed grit in two consecutive 2nd halves, but the 1st halves leave a lot to be desired. A lot.

Until they show me 4 solid quarters, I'm going to assume we're going to occasionally get too far behind for comebacks. Especially on the road.
Yeah and the main concern with this team was depth on defense. We are two games in so it is too early to say that won't come back to hurt us still. That and ****braska just isn't a great football team right now, imo, so we can't put too much on a home game against them.
 

Unleash Hell

Well-Known Member
They destroyed stanford. Theyve definitely figured out SOMETHING. It seems like with the switch to the spread they are actually using the talent they have on offense instead of letting it all go to waste, which is scary
Game was close until late and Stanford is not as good as we think. Helton will still **** the bed, hopefully one of them against us. We will find out more about SC the next couple weeks.
 

C-DubBuff93

Well-Known Member
I had 7-5 at the beginning of the season, a little optimistic could have been 6-6. But after these two games I feel like with HCMT we will never be out of a game and our fight is the best we've seen in years. Here are my updated w-l, go buffs!

Airforce - Win
@ASU - Win
UA - Win
@UO - Loss
@ WSU - Win (Swing Game)
USC - Win (Swing Game)
@ UCLA - Win
Stanford - Win
Washington - Loss (Swing Game)
@ Utah - Loss (Swing Game)
 

ahoelsken

Well-Known Member
They destroyed stanford. Theyve definitely figured out SOMETHING. It seems like with the switch to the spread they are actually using the talent they have on offense instead of letting it all go to waste, which is scary
Yeah-but if they go UW and Notre Dame and get punked, Clay Helton is still gone at the end of the year.
 

Highlander

There can be only one
Club Member
I had 7-5 at the beginning of the season, a little optimistic could have been 6-6. But after these two games I feel like with HCMT we will never be out of a game and our fight is the best we've seen in years. Here are my updated w-l, go buffs!

Airforce - Win
@ASU - Win
UA - Win
@UO - Loss
@ WSU - Win (Swing Game)
USC - Win (Swing Game)
@ UCLA - Win
Stanford - Win
Washington - Loss (Swing Game)
@ Utah - Loss (Swing Game)
The Buffs finish the season 7-3? That would be a magical season!
 

Joe Theismann's Leg

Club Member
Club Member
I honestly have no idea what to expect from this team.

On one hand, Montez is an excellent deep ball thrower who seems to show up when we really need it. On the other hand he lacks toughness and turtles when pressure is on.

On one hand the pass rush is really weak. On the other hand we can disguise what we're doing and bring heat from a lot of different sources. On one hand our defensive backfield is an adventure. On the other hand, they create a lot of turnovers.


We have a few constants, the offensive line looks as good as it's been in a while. The split backfield approach is paying off. Our WR corps is strong... but there's so many question marks.
 
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buffalo1

Club Member
Club Member
Gotta see some earlier-in-game momentum for the Buffs. These late-game heroics won't keep appearing. I do think they are conditioned and mentally strong but some of it took a bit more magic than should be relied upon.
 

DBT

Club Member
Club Member
Meh, players can be coached to attempt a block and not run into the kicker. You have to run to a spot well in front of the punter. Arias erred, but I’m not gonna fret about an effort mistake.
I can’t describe what Arias did. It was some sort of brain fart aided by the kicker’s embellishment. It was just a weird play.
 

Denver_sc

Club Member
Club Member
I honestly have no idea what to expect from this team.

On one hand, Montez is an excellent deep ball thrower who seems to show up when we really need it. On the other hand he lacks toughness and turtles when pressure is on.
Uh.... did you watch the game last week? I would say that the pressure was pretty well "on" in the second half vs the nubs and all he did was go 15/21 for 291 yds, 2 TDs and 0 INTs. That's a 71.4% completion and a 13.8 YPA. That includes that absolutely gorgeous TD pass to Tony Brown with 46 seconds left to tie the game.

Even if you take out The Flea Flicker he was 14/20 for 195 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 70% cmp, 9.75 YPA.
 

TSchekler

Club Member
Club Member
NINE wins in Coach Tucker’s first year?

I don’t think I can afford the drugs to make me see this, but I certainly will sample some at the Bowl Game.
Nine wins would be 2016 type of magic, but 8 wins isn't completely out of the question, IMO. That was my optimistic prediction in preseason. It's all a fluid situation, but through two weeks, the only teams on the schedule who I view as very likely losses/no hopers are Oregon and Utah on the road. Stanford looks much worse than most originally thought, USC in Boulder, UW doesn't appear to be the world beater we thought they would be and it's in Boulder, and while WSU has played well in their first two JV games, I don't necessarily view them as a sure loss either. On top of that, ASU, UA, UCLA and Stanford should all very winnable games.
 

TSchekler

Club Member
Club Member
Uh.... did you watch the game last week? I would say that the pressure was pretty well "on" in the second half vs the nubs and all he did was go 15/21 for 291 yds, 2 TDs and 0 INTs. That's a 71.4% completion and a 13.8 YPA. That includes that absolutely gorgeous TD pass to Tony Brown with 46 seconds left to tie the game.

Even if you take out The Flea Flicker he was 14/20 for 195 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 70% cmp, 9.75 YPA.
Yeah, I would actually say Montez seems to play better when there's pressure.
 

Bread

Fresh baked
Club Member
Uh.... did you watch the game last week? I would say that the pressure was pretty well "on" in the second half vs the nubs and all he did was go 15/21 for 291 yds, 2 TDs and 0 INTs. That's a 71.4% completion and a 13.8 YPA. That includes that absolutely gorgeous TD pass to Tony Brown with 46 seconds left to tie the game.

Even if you take out The Flea Flicker he was 14/20 for 195 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 70% cmp, 9.75 YPA.
Yeah, I would actually say Montez seems to play better when there's pressure.
Glad you said it, that was the most off base take I've seen in awhile.
 

Big Jim

WTF?
Club Member
Uh.... did you watch the game last week? I would say that the pressure was pretty well "on" in the second half vs the nubs and all he did was go 15/21 for 291 yds, 2 TDs and 0 INTs. That's a 71.4% completion and a 13.8 YPA. That includes that absolutely gorgeous TD pass to Tony Brown with 46 seconds left to tie the game.

Even if you take out The Flea Flicker he was 14/20 for 195 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 70% cmp, 9.75 YPA.
You clearly missed the first half. The only water that Montez walks on is when he’s ice fishing.
 
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