The Mad Hatter got fired today at LSU

[leftybuff]

The ceiling for this team is not 7 wins. I would have said so in August, but certainly not now. Let's call Oregon State and Washington State at home probable wins and at Stanford a probable loss. That's 5-2. The other five games seem like tossups that could easily go either way. With a little luck we go 3-2 or 4-1 in those and we finish 8-4 or 9-3. We're due for some luck. Way overdue, in fact.

We'll see...

 

[Darth Snow]

But how many of them have eligibility to continue playing? And, more importantly, how many of those Juniors are red-shirt Sophomores?

I'm actually not being pedantic or snarky, roster management is messy, but a lot of "how much older/younger is the team now and is it going to get next year" is masked with the stat "X number of juniors and seniors." A lot of the time (and is true in this case), red-shirt sophomores are included in that stat line - even though many of them will still be playing in 3 years (three years on campus (juniors), but one year redshirting (RS Soph).

If you're evaluating the current team in terms of age and experience, the number of juniors and seniors is a good line to use.

If you're evaluating how much of a drop off in age and experience the team is going to experience in the following two seasons, it's better to use something like "how many players will run out eligibility in the next two seasons?"

Now, for these numbers I'm only using scholarship players who were on the roster at the start of fall camp (it was the roster I could find in the easiest format to sort and count).

This year, we have 53 Juniors and Seniors (older and experienced, yay!)
We will have 41 players running out of eligibility at the end of 2017.
In 2017, we will have 50 Juniors and Seniors (again, older and experienced, yay!)
In 2017, we will have 39 players running out of eligibility at the end of 2018.
In 2018, we will have 42 Juniors and Seniors (younger, but still half the roster is "upperclassmen")
In 2018, we will have 35 players running out of eligibility at the end of 2019.

This is what proper class balance looks like in a P5 program, and it is truly a huge (and unheralded) success of HCMM to get us to this point in only 4 seasons. Unless we get a glut of guys leaving early for the NFL draft (a good problem to have) or a glut of injuries in one class (bad problem to have), at least half the roster should always be made up of guys who are in at least their 3rd year of college, i.e. "juniors" and older.

really good post.

 

[CUBuff98]

Seems like a shortsighted, knee jerk reaction on LSU's part to let "The Hat" go. I'm happy with what McIntyre is doing with the Buffs, and would hate to see him go, or Miles come here at this time. Well, unless he has some ST skills and would be happy with handling that aspect.

 

[somebody]

Agents doing there job.

Where job?

 

[BlackNGold]

Les Miles best days as a head coach are behind him. It would also have to be the right fit. A program like Iowa State or Kansas may benefit from a Les Miles but I am not sure he would want his legacy to be trying to rebuild perennial losers.

 

[MiamiBuffs]

MikMac is not likely to have a cannot turn down job offer this off-season. Sure, it is an outside possibility, but not one with a high probability. My guess is he stays on here, absent some sort of monumental collapse. I had called for a 4-5 win season. With the win at Oregon, CU has a chance to do better, maybe substantially better and get to 6 or 7 W's. If that happens, I will be a MikMac believer. If he tops out at 5, well, I won't be surprised. I do believe the team has gotten better every year and they look like they have turned the corner...

This one.

Does not drink from the red vessel of Kool Aid.....

 

[MiamiBuffs]

But how many of them have eligibility to continue playing? And, more importantly, how many of those Juniors are red-shirt Sophomores?

I'm actually not being pedantic or snarky, roster management is messy, but a lot of "how much older/younger is the team now and is it going to get next year" is masked with the stat "X number of juniors and seniors." A lot of the time (and is true in this case), red-shirt sophomores are included in that stat line - even though many of them will still be playing in 3 years (three years on campus (juniors), but one year redshirting (RS Soph).

If you're evaluating the current team in terms of age and experience, the number of juniors and seniors is a good line to use.

If you're evaluating how much of a drop off in age and experience the team is going to experience in the following two seasons, it's better to use something like "how many players will run out eligibility in the next two seasons?"

Now, for these numbers I'm only using scholarship players who were on the roster at the start of fall camp (it was the roster I could find in the easiest format to sort and count).

This year, we have 53 Juniors and Seniors (older and experienced, yay!)
We will have 41 players running out of eligibility at the end of 2017.
In 2017, we will have 50 Juniors and Seniors (again, older and experienced, yay!)
In 2017, we will have 39 players running out of eligibility at the end of 2018.
In 2018, we will have 42 Juniors and Seniors (younger, but still half the roster is "upperclassmen")
In 2018, we will have 35 players running out of eligibility at the end of 2019.

This is what proper class balance looks like in a P5 program, and it is truly a huge (and unheralded) success of HCMM to get us to this point in only 4 seasons. Unless we get a glut of guys leaving early for the NFL draft (a good problem to have) or a glut of injuries in one class (bad problem to have), at least half the roster should always be made up of guys who are in at least their 3rd year of college, i.e. "juniors" and older.

Thanks for presenting those numbers. They bring some relief in my mind as it strikes, again the way you present it, as more balanced than I thought. MM is clearly benefiting from having the team be more his guys and a lot of them being experienced upper classman. Hopefully its the same next year.

 

[leftybuff]

This one.

Does not drink from the red vessel of Kool Aid.....

LOL, nobody wants to be wrong more than me...just being the realist I suppose.

 

[Alfred91]

The interesting thing of course is that MM's contract is up after this year. For the first time in seemingly ever, CU will be able to negotiate an HC contract without owing cash to previous HCs or being flat-assed broke.

On the other hand, it won't really be looked at too harshly by anyone if MM takes a higher paying job after the season, having completed his contract here. And, no AD has to be concerned about having to pay us off to grab him.

I personally am not too worried about it right now, I think we would have to win 10 games for MM to get onto the kind of lists where you know he's leaving for somewhere that is clearly perceived as better than here. I hope we do win 10, but that's still a very tall order.

Jay being here is a big factor as well, and finally I think it's fair to say that he wants to be here. He's been through a lot but done a lot here, this program is truly 'his', and he has a chance to really build something his way. Going elsewhere right now means starting all over again or working in someone's shadow.

 

[onealcd]

The interesting thing of course is that MM's contract is up after this year. For the first time in seemingly ever, CU will be able to negotiate an HC contract without owing cash to previous HCs or being flat-assed broke.

On the other hand, it won't really be looked at too harshly by anyone if MM takes a higher paying job after the season, having completed his contract here. And, no AD has to be concerned about having to pay us off to grab him.

I personally am not too worried about it right now, I think we would have to win 10 games for MM to get onto the kind of lists where you know he's leaving for somewhere that is clearly perceived as better than here. I hope we do win 10, but that's still a very tall order.

Jay being here is a big factor as well, and finally I think it's fair to say that he wants to be here. He's been through a lot but done a lot here, this program is truly 'his', and he has a chance to really build something his way. Going elsewhere right now means starting all over again or working in someone's shadow.

Pretty sure he has two yeas left on his contract.

 

[Alfred91]

Pretty sure he has two yeas left on his contract.

LOL - well then never mind.

I thought he was up this year. Oh well.

 

[onealcd]

LOL - well then never mind.

I thought he was up this year. Oh well.

Yeah I think he originally signed a 5-year deal and then was auto rolled after his first year. I don't really know what the buyout would entail for him in the last year or those auto rolled years though.

 

[skibum]

Thanks for presenting those numbers. They bring some relief in my mind as it strikes, again the way you present it, as more balanced than I thought. MM is clearly benefiting from having the team be more his guys and a lot of them being experienced upper classman. Hopefully its the same next year.

The best part is that it is likely that the 2018 numbers will be better than what is projected based on the roster now once JC (and other) transfers are factored in. MM had a plan to fix our unbalanced class issues, and he's executed it very well - well enough that we should be looking at 45-55 "juniors and seniors" on the team every year in perpetuity.

Lots of posters on here used to wonder how it was that CSU always managed to have so many upperclassmen every year - this is how. We used to be the same way until ridiculous NCAA/idiotic self sanctions, ineptitude, and finally, complete incompetence (aka Barnett, Hawkins and Embree) destroyed the roster.

I'm sort of in awe when I look at what HCMM has done in terms of getting class balance issues sorted out. There are still some lingering issues with some position groups, but overall the picture is light years from where it was 4 years ago.

 

[Buffnik]

The best part is that it is likely that the 2018 numbers will be better than what is projected based on the roster now once JC (and other) transfers are factored in. MM had a plan to fix our unbalanced class issues, and he's executed it very well - well enough that we should be looking at 45-55 "juniors and seniors" on the team every year in perpetuity.

Lots of posters on here used to wonder how it was that CSU always managed to have so many upperclassmen every year - this is how. We used to be the same way until ridiculous NCAA/idiotic self sanctions, ineptitude, and finally, complete incompetence (aka Barnett, Hawkins and Embree) destroyed the roster.

I'm sort of in awe when I look at what HCMM has done in terms of getting class balance issues sorted out. There are still some lingering issues with some position groups, but overall the picture is light years from where it was 4 years ago.

A big factor was the academic director he brought with him from SJSU. She has done a great job both with retention and also with helping identify the JUCO transfers who make sense for CU to target & bring in. Our JC recruiting is now the best I've seen at CU. I didn't think it was possible, but I now expect to see a few JC guys every year to fill the trouble spots on the depth chart.

 

[absinthe]

Saban not amused by how they did Miles.

 

[MtnBuff]

Mac has still not gone over .500 at CU. If he does so this year, in fact if he wins out this year he would still be well under .500 as both a P5 coach and as a BCS level coach. The top 10-15 programs in the country aren't going to come after him under those circumstances and even if he has a couple good years.

The CU program is no longer a dumpster fire. He has facilities, he has administrative support. I have no question that should he start contending for conference titles the money from the boosters will allow him to make the kind of money that anyone short of the very top programs would offer him.

Add to that the fact that he likes it here, his wife likes it here (might be the most important factor,) his son is here and he is becoming part of the community.

Bill McCartney proved that CU can be an elite job. Had the administration not ****ed up it would have remained an elite job.

For a coach this is a place where you can win a lot of games and have success without dealing with the same kind of pressure that Miles did or Jimbo, or a lot of others.

It wouldn't surprise me if M2 isn't our coach 10 years from now.

 

[BuffinCali]

Les Miles is available
CU is in need of a ST coach

IJS - Come on back coach!

 

[iSmellChip]

Probably not anymore now that he has early onset dementia.

Meant MacIntyre not McCartney

 

[goalline]

Saban not amused by how they did Miles.

Huh? Elaborate?

 

[absinthe]

Huh? Elaborate?

Quotes atributed to Nick:
Nick Saban on Les Miles: Wins national title and two SEC titles and doesn’t last a season?
Nick Saban 'kind of hated' idea of Les Miles being canned during season
Nick Saban on LSU firing Les Miles: How can a championship-winning coach get fired mid-season?

 

[onealcd]

Saban loved having Miles at LSU.

 

[Denver_sc]

But how many of them have eligibility to continue playing? And, more importantly, how many of those Juniors are red-shirt Sophomores?

I'm actually not being pedantic or snarky, roster management is messy, but a lot of "how much older/younger is the team now and is it going to get next year" is masked with the stat "X number of juniors and seniors." A lot of the time (and is true in this case), red-shirt sophomores are included in that stat line - even though many of them will still be playing in 3 years (three years on campus (juniors), but one year redshirting (RS Soph).

If you're evaluating the current team in terms of age and experience, the number of juniors and seniors is a good line to use.

If you're evaluating how much of a drop off in age and experience the team is going to experience in the following two seasons, it's better to use something like "how many players will run out eligibility in the next two seasons?"

Now, for these numbers I'm only using scholarship players who were on the roster at the start of fall camp (it was the roster I could find in the easiest format to sort and count).

This year, we have 53 Juniors and Seniors (older and experienced, yay!)
We will have 41 players running out of eligibility at the end of 2017.
In 2017, we will have 50 Juniors and Seniors (again, older and experienced, yay!)
In 2017, we will have 39 players running out of eligibility at the end of 2018.
In 2018, we will have 42 Juniors and Seniors (younger, but still half the roster is "upperclassmen")
In 2018, we will have 35 players running out of eligibility at the end of 2019.

This is what proper class balance looks like in a P5 program, and it is truly a huge (and unheralded) success of HCMM to get us to this point in only 4 seasons. Unless we get a glut of guys leaving early for the NFL draft (a good problem to have) or a glut of injuries in one class (bad problem to have), at least half the roster should always be made up of guys who are in at least their 3rd year of college, i.e. "juniors" and older.

This is a great post that doesn't have nearly enough likes.

MM has done a seriously FANTASTIC job at stopping the cycle of bad attrition that was killing this program- get only a few players, have the good ones either dismissed for academics/discipline or leave the program voluntarily, start a bunch of underclassmen, repeat.

Seriously, when you look at it in that context, it's incredible.