The mother of all conference realignment blogs

[Alfred91]

So we have about 5 extremely sturdy, unassailable arguments against relegation.

Why do people keep bringing it up then?

Clickbait?

 

[sackman]

So we have about 5 extremely sturdy, unassailable arguments against relegation.

Why do people keep bringing it up then?

Clickbait?

Im convinced schools like CSU see it as the only way they can ever move up to P5 status. These discussions were started by supporters of those schools in the hope the idea would get some traction and maybe, someday, see the light of day.

 

[Creebuzz]

Im convinced schools like CSU see it as the only way they can ever move up to P5 status. These discussions were started by supporters of those schools in the hope the idea would get some traction and maybe, someday, see the light of day.

Soon, CSU will be relegated to a status of broke.

 

[ScottyBuff]

Tulane used to be in the SEC once upon a time as well.

The posts above indicating this all about and really only about TV money is correct. Realignment has ushered in newer and vastly larger TV deals because they were compelling in terms of size and scope of potential new viewers.

Its also clear that the ESPN juggernaut of spending has gotten it into deep financial trouble. When those contracts end its highly unlikely the next round of contracts will be record breaking. But you never know. The question at that point is whats next? Its conceivable that conferences put their broadcast behind a paywall. But I doubt that since its so important for recruiting students and alumni giving that they would go completely off free network TV. My thinking is there will be contracts with ABC, CBS, FOX, or NBC with the best 2 or 3 games being on free tv with the rest behind the paywall. Free TV has been thus far unwilling to pay the stratospheric fees ESPN was willing to.

Because of the above I dont think we see much more realignment other than the BigXII getting picked apart to divide those big TV markets up.

Yes, forgot to include Tulane in there as well.

The TV contracts have certainly gone from undervalued to overvalued in a very brief time. Long-term the addage that "content is king" will win out. The Pac-12 is smart to own control of content rather than have it sold to a single carrier model. This might not look great in comparison to other conferences in the near to mid term as the carrier contracts are king for now; but the era of cord-cutting and mobile devices (especially in the Pac-12's footprint) will payoff for them in the long run. Certainly the carrier contracts coming up after the Big Ten will see some rebound effect of too much spending and therefore be less of a windfall. Live sports however will still remain a "tier one" acquisition for carriers across any platform.

Most likely you will see networks change their business model to adapt to the new viewing environment. In the last decade we have seen the creation by each major network of a premiere sports channel and sometimes regional affiliates to handle broader distribution of sports. This is one of the money makers for them, so I can't see how they also won't eventually be the drivers of streaming and mobile distribution of content that they "own". Right now, they just don't know how to value and monetize that process.

Back to conference realignment, due to the grant-in-rights clauses that most major conference members have now signed things will move much more slowly than in the past 6-7 years. The Big 12 membership is certainly the most unstable and there seems to be little they can do to build consensus with the compromises they made with Texas.

I do believe that the other power conferences will not make any moves unless the Big 12 implodes. There are no other programs outside of the power 5 conferences that bring any value with the exception of BYU and maybe UConn.

In the "imposion scenario" it is clear that the ACC is in position to snap up West Virginia and UConn. The Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-12 will all court Oklahoma and Texas with varying "back-up" plans based on their needs/wants/minimum standards. I believe that the Pac-12 is in the best position to add both of those programs because of their ability to bring in "little brother" in Oklahoma State and Texas Tech and for those schools to have more of an impact in the conference rather than opening up their recruiting turf to Big Ten and SEC programs. This, of course, would require "equality" when it comes to revenue sharing and TV rights so the Longhorns would be giving up their Longhorn Network. If they refuse then it is a much murkier scenario; which is why nothing has happened yet.

 

[sackman]

Any scenario that sends UT to the PAC 12 is DOA.

The land thieves are ok.

 

[Mick Ronson]

i can see OSU having some appeal....but i don't see any unique appeal to Tech. i hear the new Tech golf course is a pretty cool linksy sort of thing....best i can do.

i actually think the SEC screwed up not getting OU and OSU last time around....they offered OU but didn't want OSU...but the Pokes have been tough in football and hoops are were usually an under-achieving talent-wise first round NCAA loss type team under the now fired Travis Ford....and really good at the "spring sports" that are big in the SEC....golf and baseball etc.

i know it's fashionable around here to bang on the current Big XII....but they've been pretty competitive even in these down years in the Texas "wandering the desert" years of Charlie Strong and late Barnes era. but, we all know competitive on the field of play isn't what drives the train....the Big 8 was sending 4-5 teams of an 8 team league to the NCAA and CU, NU, and OU won football national championships in the last decade of it's existence. played for it a couple other times. it's all about fannies in front of the TV, population density, media markets and advertising dollars.

i still like sport but am liking "sports" less and less all the time.

 

[Mick Ronson]

all that said, i've always sideways wanted the Longhorn Network to be a raging success ("no one ever went broke over-estimating the vulgarity of the American people")....so UT might go independent in their undeserved but suffering hubris. then, they and Notre Dame can wank each other off into eternity.

 

[MiamiBuffs]

all that said, i've always sideways wanted the Longhorn Network to be a raging success ("no one ever went broke over-estimating the vulgarity of the American people")....so UT might go independent in their undeserved but suffering hubris. then, they and Notre Dame can wank each other off into eternity.

As long is UTerus is getting ESecPN money for the Longhorn Network, and they will for several more years, they will not be leaving the Big12. They hold the conference together while simultaneously dividing it. Clever. That said, ESPN is losing money on it will probably drop it someday in the future. OU and OSU departing before that day would be a rather crushing blow but it would not kill the conference right away. The death really started with the departure A&M which began the process of dividing up the TV markets in Texas that the Big 12 once had locked up. Taking OU would remove another significant source or alumni and fans. In the future the conference has a diminished TV value.

UT might go independent which is great for football. For all the other sports its pretty much horrible because you have to find teams willing to play out of conference games during the regular conference portions of their season. Notre Dame had a really really hard time with that.