Buffs@5345'
Club Member
Is the hype meter steaming yet?
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The Next Five Games Make or Break the Season...
- Thread starter jcatcher
- Start date
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Must prove that we can beat ****** and mediocre teams on the road. USC can barely score 50 a game, but they play good defense. They're 0-6, gotta get it...
jgisland
Club Member
Odds are getting better after the zona W. Still long shots, projected to go 6-5 the rest of the way out.
5% chance of winning the next 4
21% chance of going 3-1
37% chance of going 2-2
This conference is a complete crap shoot, outside of ASU, USC, and Utah the other 9 schools are all capable of beating each other on any given night.
5% chance of winning the next 4
21% chance of going 3-1
37% chance of going 2-2
This conference is a complete crap shoot, outside of ASU, USC, and Utah the other 9 schools are all capable of beating each other on any given night.
:lol:
Even if we do go 6-5 for the rest of the games, that translates into a 11-7 conference record and a 20-win season. Pretty much everybody predicted 9-9 going into the season. If you had told most CU basketball fans at the beginning of the season that we'd go 20-11, I suspect they'd all be pretty pleased. At this point, I think that's shooting too low, frankly. 22 regular season wins, with 2 wins in the conference tournament and we're staring at 24 wins and a solid bubble team. I don't think that's outside the realm of possibility.
Even if we do go 6-5 for the rest of the games, that translates into a 11-7 conference record and a 20-win season. Pretty much everybody predicted 9-9 going into the season. If you had told most CU basketball fans at the beginning of the season that we'd go 20-11, I suspect they'd all be pretty pleased. At this point, I think that's shooting too low, frankly. 22 regular season wins, with 2 wins in the conference tournament and we're staring at 24 wins and a solid bubble team. I don't think that's outside the realm of possibility.
fify
If they lose to ASU, USC and Utah on the road, they don't deserve the tournament anyway. So yeah, I guess I agree. I may be putting too much on Tad, but I really think he's the real deal. I believe they can win a lot of games in this conference.
we actually won't hit 20 wins if we go 6-5 since we have 13 wins right now. We would need to go 7-4 to hit 20.
OK. I couldn't remember exactly what our record was, and I was trying to figure out what we had going into conference play. I thought we were 9-4 going into the conference, but I guess it was 8-4.
no worries, most of you bank guys aren't good with numbers.
jgisland
Club Member
Sorry to say, if CU gets to 24 and doesn't win the conference tourney they still aren't getting in.
at least we can be all outraged again.
Buffs@5345'
Club Member
Took care of business tonight, tougher moving forward....but didn't get caught overlooking.
That day sucked... hard
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
I know it's obviously a completely different situation this year in the new conference, but at this point last year we were also 14-6. This was when we fell into a slump in the middle of the conference slate and dropped some winnables that ultimately cost us our bid to the Dance. We had just dropped games in Lincoln and Norman and now had to face KU in game #21.
alec10burks
Well-Known Member
24 wins would likely mean we either won the conference tourney or we finish 1-2 in the conference. If we get 24 wins we'll be in the tournament.
jgisland
Club Member
Lets figure CAL is really the only p12 team with a decent shot of getting in without winning the conf tournament, if CU and Cal don't win the tournament and CU wins 24, meaning they either win out in regular season play or win a couple in the conf tourney I am still not sure they are in.
Let's put it this way, if CU or CAL doesn't win the P12 tourney I am not so sure CU gets in.
CU's got a strong SOS compared to other conference members. We don't have any signature non-conference wins, but we played a strong enough schedule to justify an at-large big with a 20+ win season. We'll be on the bubble if we can be at 20+ and then show well in the conference tourney.
We should just win the conference tourney and **** the debate. I don't see a team we can't beat, just need to string a streak together on the road. Can't be too difficult, can it? :huh: :smile2:
Yeah. We were at 61 after Saturday. We're bunched with a number of teams. Beating UCLA could put us into the 50s.
jgisland
Club Member
I don't pretend to understand fully how the RPI is calculated. But how is CU going to jump 15ish spots beating UCLA with an RPI of 137?
Top 150 is solid and winning on the road counts as a 1.5 multiplier iirc. Plus, UCLA played a strong OOC schedule so we get the bump from the records of the opponents of our opponents.
TZISKIN
Well-Known Member
Problem is, Stanford and Oregon both played better non-conference schedules than us... so we'll need to beat them in the standings in order to show ahead of them. We'll also need to find a way to beat both of them at home, and if we could steal one in Eugene that would definitely set us apart. This UCLA game now has HUGE tournament implications for us... if we win, we've definitely got to start being in the conversation with two MONSTER games against OSU and Oregon next week. If we lose, we aren't done... but it certainly won't help our resume.
TZISKIN
Well-Known Member
While true, we aren't moving up 15 spots from this win. It would probably get us back into the low 60s though. Noticed that KenPom has us all the way up to 78... we had been hovering around 100 for most of the year, so that's a pretty dramatic jump.
jgisland
Club Member
Thanks for the clarification, ymssr
For anybody like me who doesn't understand this as well as buffnik, here is a good detailed explanation.
How many teams are in the NCAA tourney this year?
I see 5 more doable wins: OSU, Cal & OU (OU is the only team with a winning road record, but we can outrun them in the second half); then we'll get 2 of 3 between OSU, ASU and Utah on the road. That makes the @UCLA and Stanford games so critical. Need to get one of those to get off the bubble, and both to be sure. I think we have a tough game at AZ & it's a likely loss in their building.
So 19 wins are very doable but I doubt that gets us dancing; we can't have any letdowns if we want 20 or 21.
So 19 wins are very doable but I doubt that gets us dancing; we can't have any letdowns if we want 20 or 21.
I've been calling this one as a loss for a while. This is where the loss of Cain is gonna kill us.