I'm surprised Indiana is in that tier. Academically, they're good, but not more difficult to get kids in than most of the other B1G schools. Plus, they'll have new facilities (or at portions of) in all of their sports, including football, in the next few years thanks to numerous big time donors. Obviously the lack of a winning tradition in football in an old school football conference is keeping them low on the list.
When you look at the teams at the bottom, there seem to be some commonalities. Lots of programs that have never shown they can achieve sustained success in football. Some basketball-first schools. Some with academic standards that would hold them back. But the big thing seems to be whether it's a location that can readily attract recruits. The ones coaches seem to believe have the most upside are places like Colorado, Rutgers and Illinois... large state universities with locations that make it possible to get dudes. CU, given what it has achieved in the past, leads the upside list. Sleeping Giant.