Took a look at cubuffs.com to get a read on the team.
12-8 record, with 4-4 in the Pac-12.
12 conference matches remaining.
What do our experts think it will take to get a bid to the NCAA Tourney?
Is a .500 conference record (18-14 overall) good enough this year based on the strength of the Pac-12 or will CU's sluggish non-conference performance this season likely require better than that?
Is the target more like 8-4 over the last 12 in order to get in? What's the thought on what it will take to feel like we're on the good side of the bubble this year?
I'll be updating my look at Soccer and Volleyball numbers thread on Tuesday, so will have more up to date data then, but I'd guess if we end up 10-10 in conference, we'd be
very safe to get in. And, I'd think our odds would be somewhat above 50-50 to get in even if we end up 9-11. (Hopefully, of course, it's all academic and we'll end up better than that.)
Quick reasoning-
1) Unless the standings are wacky with Cal, WSU and Utah not getting any more wins (and the way they're playing, I think they'll win at least a few between them) and Stanford and Washington lose alot to other teams, 10-10 or 9-11 should get us at least in the 7th place range in conference. Last year, 9 Pac 12 teams got into the tournament, and the conference is even stronger relative to the rest of the country this year, so 9-10 Pac teams are probably getting. So, If we're 7th in conference, we're obviously within the top 9 in conference.
2) I looked at our schedule, and 8 of our last 12 games are against top 20 teams, so, even if we just end up with 9 wins, that means at least one more high quality win, and then 2 (of course) high quality wins if we end up at 10-10. This will give us 3-4 high quality wins for the year, which I believe selection committees love to see. And, with the conference being as it is, there are no potential HORRIBLE losses left, even if we slipped once or twice to the "weaker" Pac teams (currently WSU (scary team by the way and our next opponent, just took ranked ASU to 5 sets on the road), Cal or Utah, as even they are top 100 RPI teams). (Of course, if we slip against those teams twice or more, we'll have to have even more big wins to even get to 9-11 in conference.)
3) Looking back, as I believe committees do, I think we'll get some break for the non-conference results, as two of our best 3-5 players missed much (N. Edelman) to almost all (A. Austin) of the non-conference schedule, and we're much better with them playing. In addition, we're definitely a young team, and our 5-6 freshmen and lightly used sophomores who play a lot for us are playing much better now. And, even if the committee didn't look at it that way, as I noted in my ranking/ RPI thread, thankfully we did avoid the "bad" loss this year. (Illinois is Top 25 in the country (actually 15th), and the other three non conference losses were to last week RPI #'s 30, 42 and 62. So, nothing nearly as bad as the loss to RPI #137 Wyoming last year.)
