I think the team is mentally frail. They make one mistake and they can't get over it. There are too many guys on the field who were in high school a few months ago. The seniors, who should be the ones holding the team together, don't show leadership. Almost all of the seniors have spent a lot of time in their careers on the sidelines due to injury and I don't think any of them are playing for a chance to get drafted.
Remember that this team had double-digit leads in the first two games before breaking down mentally. A muffed punt (by a freshman) right before the half vs. CSU, and what looked like a blowout in the making vs. Sacramento State turned on a third and eight conversion after the 14-0 lead. I don't know about you guys, but all it took for me to give up hope on Saturday was one play. Orms makes a great play for a three yard loss, only for another freshman to get goaded into a 15 yard retaliation penalty. They don't have anyone who can stop the snowball once it starts rolling.
Hawkins tore this program to the ground and stomped on it.
The easiest issue to see is the talent issue. In his final years Hawkins recruited to many guys who simply don't belong on a FBS roster and can't compete. His recruiting rankings were deceptive because he got a number of guys who were highly ranked but most were available because they had other flaws (academic, character, injury, etc.) that mean that they are long gone leaving a roster very thin on jr. and sr. contributors.
Bigger issue left by Hawkins was the attitude issue. Under his "leadership" the team learned how to lose and how to accept losing. They got to a point mentally and emotionally where they expected to lose and found ways to do it.
Embree, or any other coach who would have taken over this job, faced the dual challenge of increasing the talent level to a competitive leves and more importantly replacing the ingrained losing attitude with that of a winning team. He faced a team without upperclass leaders to push and challenge the younger players to perform and do the work needed to perform.
This job would have been tough for almost any coach coming in. The obstacles were huge. Embree has in my opinion raised the talent level significantly. That talent is still very young and even though better you can still question if it is good enough.
The bigger issue was that of what was going on in the heads of the players. At the end of last year it looked as if this team had turned a corner. Despite a season with a lot of losing and in some cases complete missmatches on the field they didn't quit. Instead they won 2 out of the last 3 and appeared to be set to start this season on a winning note.
Optimism now gone. They managed to lose the game against CSU despite a solid lead. They also got dominated in that game on the LOS by a team that had some more experience but was not nearly as talented with one exception. They failed to adjust, they failed to raise their game, and they failed to win a game that should have been in the win column. Fast forward one week and they then lose to and FCS team with middle level FCS talent, again they led, and again there is no excuse to lose it but they did.
This week was more than a loss. This was a team that put on their pads and walked on the field but didn't show up from the opening KO. 69-14 and it wasn't that close.
Embree and staff had a very difficult job changing the mental state of this team. The Fresno game shows that they have failed. It also shows that the players have tuned them out and are not listening. I cannot remember ever seeing a team that had tuned out a coaching staff to this level that ever came back to listen to them and win. In my mind, and I like Embree and the staff and wanted them to succeed, it is now over. The window has closed and it is only a matter of when they get replaced, not if they can come back.
I do think that the next coach will have a tough time as well but not as tough as Embree inherited. At least he will have some solid young prospects, maybe he will be further removed from the Hawkins approach and will find it easier to change attitudes.
With that I am still concerned because this team is so bad right now. I also worry because even in programs with more administrative support and resources a high percentage of coaching hires fail. Look at how many coaches Bama went through after the Bear, look at the struggles to find coaches at OU, at RichRod's failure at Michigan, etc. I do know that the guy we have has failed and it is time to move on, let's hope we find our guy in the next one.