What are the problems with this team?

[MtnBuff]

Extend Hawk and then double down on the mistake by replacing him with a totally unorthodox hire for both HC and OC. That double whammy has crushed the program.

But it's always fixable with the right guy. Happens all the time. Just need to get to the right guy(s) asap. The longer you wait, the deeper the hole.

This is always the issue, have to find the right guy.

Trouble is even with the right guy it takes some time. Fire to quickly and you miss out on the right guy and other guys don't trust you to give them time. Wait to long and you did a deeper hole by missing out on recruiting and extending losing attitudes.

That said we kept Hawk at least two years to long. Unless we see something major change which isn't likely it looks like Embree isn't the guy either, change at end of season at the latest.

 

[BuffaloChuck]

Briles made huge strides in his first season at Baylor. And Baylor was a far worse situation that CU - it'd been jerked around and stomped on for 12 seasons, and each of the last 8 had two or more games that set opponent records. RED FLAG.

They'd refused Briles years earlier, but then they made the jump after his prolonged success at U-Hou. And his first season showed immediate positive impact. His second season, not so much, because his star player (RGIII) went out with a knee injury. But his 3rd year was even better than the First Year because he never stopped coaching up his team. He said he thought RGIII's 2nd year injury was a blessing, because he was able to challenge his players to keep their progress going. Those that didn't, sat and watched. Sold popcorn. Anything but dragged the program down.

Baylor had 5 generations of players that knew how to lose, knew how to quit. The right coach stopped that in his first year. It can be done.

 

[CUFan]

Briles made huge strides in his first season at Baylor. And Baylor was a far worse situation that CU - it'd been jerked around and stomped on for 12 seasons, and each of the last 8 had two or more games that set opponent records. RED FLAG.

They'd refused Briles years earlier, but then they made the jump after his prolonged success at U-Hou. And his first season showed immediate positive impact. His second season, not so much, because his star player (RGIII) went out with a knee injury. But his 3rd year was even better than the First Year because he never stopped coaching up his team. He said he thought RGIII's 2nd year injury was a blessing, because he was able to challenge his players to keep their progress going. Those that didn't, sat and watched. Sold popcorn. Anything but dragged the program down.

Baylor had 5 generations of players that knew how to lose, knew how to quit. The right coach stopped that in his first year. It can be done.

That and an RGIII-type, once in a lifetime, player.

 

[BuffaloChuck]

And then he's got this year's QB, which has opened to rave reviews, too. The man appears to recognize talent and has a staff that seems to able to make them better. Honestly, I don't think any NCAA program was as low as Baylor's was, and Briles took them from a #120 ranking into a 50-ranking in Year 1, and kept going. He may be building a program that has one Low year, one Great year and two Good ones in between. Then when he can recruit more solidly, that Low year disappears entirely and they'll be whining about 3-4 loss seasons, or losing in 1 out of 4 bowl games.

I like to believe Good Coaches make a difference.

 

[CUFan]

No doubt I give him credit and he appears to be a good coach. I was just pointing out that it is certainly easier to build a program with an RGIII. With that written, I assume he recruited RGIII, so that's definitely his success.

I agree it was a monumental turnaround, as Baylor was what we are now, without the history of success.

 

[whatthebuff]

"We didn't tackle well today but we made up for it by not blocking."

We're the 76 Bucs, but Embree isn't as funny as John McKay.

Execution, I'm all in favor of it.

 

[Walter White]

This is always the issue, have to find the right guy.

Trouble is even with the right guy it takes some time. Fire to quickly and you miss out on the right guy and other guys don't trust you to give them time. Wait to long and you did a deeper hole by missing out on recruiting and extending losing attitudes.

That said we kept Hawk at least two years to long. Unless we see something major change which isn't likely it looks like Embree isn't the guy either, change at end of season at the latest.

Nobody has a crystal ball. Every single power program strikes out with hires. Getting the right guy is both art and science.

I think CU made a very defendable decision to initially hire Hawk. It didn’t work out. Those things happen. I think CU made an un-defendable decision to extend when they did. It was an ultra-conservative move. There is no way CU was in a position of risk with Hawk leaving. Other schools were not beating down the door to get Hawk, and even if they did, CU could have always matched a legit offer. That was just straight up a bad decision.

The JE and EB hires were totally unorthodox and counter to patterns of success you see elsewhere. Nobody in the world was offering these guys. Other than CU, there was exactly zero demand for either of these guys for HC and OC positions. Now, maybe CU is the smart one and everyone else missed the boat. But, often times, when you can’t figure out who the idiot at the table is, then it might just be you.

Another guy here had the best post I’ve seen, which said, essentially, you are more likely to give a guy like Mac extra time because he has earned it, because of his track record. JE and EB don’t have a track record. They have nothing. It’s an extremely low percentage play to go with guys that do not have a track record of success. Who knows, maybe you get lucky. It happens, but it’s not likely. I’m not a big fan of fighting probabilities.

 

[Walter White]

This is always the issue, have to find the right guy.

Trouble is even with the right guy it takes some time. Fire to quickly and you miss out on the right guy and other guys don't trust you to give them time. Wait to long and you did a deeper hole by missing out on recruiting and extending losing attitudes.

That said we kept Hawk at least two years to long. Unless we see something major change which isn't likely it looks like Embree isn't the guy either, change at end of season at the latest.

Equally important is sticking with the right guy through some full cycles of ups and downs. Realistic expecations are important. Fans don't have realistic expectations. They are always too high.

 

[BuffaloChuck]

I'll bring up Briles again because one element might have been key. Houston-area players, in Texas, have been some of the top talents. Dallas-FW, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio - they churn out a few, but the Houston area has been turning out 100-150 Div-1 recruits each year for 15 years or so. That's a large number - LA-SoCal approaches that, but there's also about 1,000 horrible freeway-miles to consume in that process. Houston does that in half the space and time.

Briles earned huge marks for recruiting Houston-area players. He wasn't the top dog down there, but he was certainly in the Top 10, thrown in with LSU, OU, the Florida schools, 'Bama, Texas & A&M, Missouri, etc.

Briles' success had been noted because he was getting U-Hou into good headlnies, and behind the scenes, he was winning recruits (and yes, often due to academic DQs from other schools - U-Hou'd take 'em). He had RGIII locked down TO HIM at U-Hou, a sure-thing. And then Baylor bought him up. And RGIII. Briles' staff continues to well-plunder one of the most fertile recruiting areas in the country.

That said... I'd imagine that some set of coaches could plunder SoCal and offer "home away from homes" and "beautful scenery" to players that are longing for that change of life into adulthood. I'm really surprised Embree's staff isn't chockful of those types of recruiting coaches.

 

[MtnBuff]

Nobody has a crystal ball. Every single power program strikes out with hires. Getting the right guy is both art and science.

I think CU made a very defendable decision to initially hire Hawk. It didn’t work out. Those things happen. I think CU made an un-defendable decision to extend when they did. It was an ultra-conservative move. There is no way CU was in a position of risk with Hawk leaving. Other schools were not beating down the door to get Hawk, and even if they did, CU could have always matched a legit offer. That was just straight up a bad decision.

The JE and EB hires were totally unorthodox and counter to patterns of success you see elsewhere. Nobody in the world was offering these guys. Other than CU, there was exactly zero demand for either of these guys for HC and OC positions. Now, maybe CU is the smart one and everyone else missed the boat. But, often times, when you can’t figure out who the idiot at the table is, then it might just be you.

Another guy here had the best post I’ve seen, which said, essentially, you are more likely to give a guy like Mac extra time because he has earned it, because of his track record. JE and EB don’t have a track record. They have nothing. It’s an extremely low percentage play to go with guys that do not have a track record of success. Who knows, maybe you get lucky. It happens, but it’s not likely. I’m not a big fan of fighting probabilities.

In JE and EB they were looking for a potential homerun at low cost. They were like the 165lb shortstop swinging for the fences. A small chance of success that could have happened but now we are on stike two and they have shown no sign of getting a read on the pitcher.

If we had not hired Hawk, plenty of other schools would have stood up and tried. As you said easy to defend that one. The problem there was not cutting him loose early enough when it was obvious that it wasn't going to work.

With Mac the results on the field were bad but as you stated he had a better track record to look at. More importly there were reasons to believe that Mac was making progress even if it didn't show on the field. Unless JE manages to make some big changes I don't see those same signs in this program right now. He is going to get more games, likely till at least the end of the year. What is important is that the admin recognize that this hire isn't working and be willing to move on.

 

[MtnBuff]

Nobody has a crystal ball. Every single power program strikes out with hires. Getting the right guy is both art and science.

I think CU made a very defendable decision to initially hire Hawk. It didn’t work out. Those things happen. I think CU made an un-defendable decision to extend when they did. It was an ultra-conservative move. There is no way CU was in a position of risk with Hawk leaving. Other schools were not beating down the door to get Hawk, and even if they did, CU could have always matched a legit offer. That was just straight up a bad decision.

The JE and EB hires were totally unorthodox and counter to patterns of success you see elsewhere. Nobody in the world was offering these guys. Other than CU, there was exactly zero demand for either of these guys for HC and OC positions. Now, maybe CU is the smart one and everyone else missed the boat. But, often times, when you can’t figure out who the idiot at the table is, then it might just be you.

Another guy here had the best post I’ve seen, which said, essentially, you are more likely to give a guy like Mac extra time because he has earned it, because of his track record. JE and EB don’t have a track record. They have nothing. It’s an extremely low percentage play to go with guys that do not have a track record of success. Who knows, maybe you get lucky. It happens, but it’s not likely. I’m not a big fan of fighting probabilities.

In JE and EB they were looking for a potential homerun at low cost. They were like the 165lb shortstop swinging for the fences. A small chance of success that could have happened but now we are on stike two and they have shown no sign of getting a read on the pitcher.

If we had not hired Hawk, plenty of other schools would have stood up and tried. As you said easy to defend that one. The problem there was not cutting him loose early enough when it was obvious that it wasn't going to work.

With Mac the results on the field were bad but as you stated he had a better track record to look at. More importly there were reasons to believe that Mac was making progress even if it didn't show on the field. Unless JE manages to make some big changes I don't see those same signs in this program right now. He is going to get more games, likely till at least the end of the year. What is important is that the admin recognize that this hire isn't working and be willing to move on.