I think about it as more of a process of elimination to get down to the candidates. I think these are the characteristics of a school that will hire Briles:
- Not a P5 school. I do not think an P5 school will deal with the firestorm of being the first to hire Briles post **** bailer, especially a prominent one.
- Located in Texas. I believe it would need to be a school in Texas- he's coached his entire career there and would have the biggest recruiting bump.
- Not an FCS school. I do not believe he'd come back for an FCS school or a lesser-regarded FBS school.
- Desperate to avoid getting left behind in conference realignment, and therefore wiling to take the media heat.
There are 7 non-P5 FBS schools in Texas: Houston, NT, Rice, SMU, Texas State, UTSA, UTEP.
- I think Houston is probably out- I think they'll be in the BigXII expansion and keep Herman.
- I don't think Rice cares that much about winning or getting into a P5- they've kept their current coach for 8 years, and they seem to be satisfied with him.
- Texas State is pretty small-time: they're a Sun Belt school and the only one on this list. I don't think they'd make Briles' cut.
- UTSA just hired their second-ever coach this offseason. I have to think they'd probably be unwilling to rock the boat.
That leaves NT, SMU, and UTEP:
- North Texas:
- Case for:
- Rotate coaches frequently in the last few years in order to try to find the right fit
- Built a new on-campus stadium- behavior showing they are trying to stay relevant
- In the DFW metro- close access to recruits. Attractive to Briles?
- Case against:
- Just hired a coach (although he seems to be a placeholder internal TE coach hire)
- "Smaller time" than SMU and maybe even UTEP
- SMU:
- Always put their name in the hat for BXII expansion, desperate to move up. They were "in" at one point in time and the Death Penalty has all but shut them out. I think they'd do anything to get back "In"
- History and in the DFW- good fit for Briles?
- Chad Morris has not impressed much, might be willing to go away from him after two seasons
- Donor culture- could they get enough together for Briles?
- Case against:
- Only 2nd year for the current coach.
- UTEP:
- Probably willing to quietly look for a new coach, current coach - 15-23 including 9-15 in conference in three seasons so far with a slight downward trend
- Have taken chances on coaches in the past (Mike Price)
- Probably the most support of any of the programs on this list
- Case against:
- WAAAAAY the hell out there in El Paso
- Do they care about being in G5 or P5?
With everything said and done, my money would be on SMU.