Agreed. I would tend to look at more data than just the win-loss record. I'm not a reductionist. I don't think that you need to be an expert or an insider to generally tell if a coach is completely clueless and making a mess of things (e.g. Embree and Hawlkins to a lesser extent). If you have that situation then I think it's better to cut your losses ASAP. The longer you hold on the deeper the hole you dig. However, I think it is entirely possible to have a solid coach who knows what he's doing and have ebbs and flows in win-loss success, and I think this especially applies to all schools who are not at the upper echelon of resources thrown at football. There are so many variables that go into winning and losing. And the other team, obviously, has a vote in the matter. I think stability and strength in a program is the result, typically, of a long and steady effort. Recruiting is key and unless you're at a superpower, it takes time to develop relationships and reputation with high school coaches and the football community in general. Blowing the whole thing up every three or four years just sets you back to square one IMO.
In CU's particular situation I think fully committing to the current coach gives you a better chance of long term success than replacing him in in two or three years time if CU is still among the bottom three or four in the conference. I think people tend to undervalue the benefits of stability and overstate the benefits of "new blood" and "change". I'm saying be careful in writing off a coach as a dud. Based on what I've seen I don't think the current coach is a dud or a fraud (like the Hawlk). I think he is solid enough based on what I've seen so far. If the coach can build a base of stability, which takes years, then I think that puts CU in a position to hang around the middle of the conference most years with a few shots at the top when things fall into place (talented seniors at QB and o-line) and maybe an occasional season or two near the bottom when you lose key guys. I think that's a realistic goal for CU unless CU is willing to do the things that the upper echelon programs do to be in contention for conference championships most every year (Ohio State, Alabama, Oklahoma, Oregon recently, USC traditionally, etc.).