White_Rabbit
Well-Known Member
Glad to have him on board. The lack of offers is concerning at this juncture, but I trust EB's judgment.
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The value of lightly recruited guys, stars vs offer lists, recruiting services, etc
- Thread starter White_Rabbit
- Start date
boydbuff
Club Member
Who cares who else has offered? Don't get me wrong-I freaking love that we are competing for dudes that The Ohio State, USC and others are going after. We have to regularly compete and sometimes win those high profile battles. But there are so many awesome players, including many that have played for the Buffs in recent years (like Rodney, like Scotty McKnight), etc. are not highly recruited, or not really recruited at all. We have to have faith in the coaching staff to identify candidates that fit our plans and to develop them to exceed expectations. On top of that, as many others have said, this guy can play. He is a very physical runner, with speed, exactly the kind of player we want in our pro-style offense.
White_Rabbit
Well-Known Member
I care. So should you.
boydbuff
Club Member
I disagree. There are just too many examples of players who were underrated or overlooked for any number of reasons to get to worried about how many offers recruits have. Again-I love when we are competing for recruits with 25 offers but if we got a good one and others missed out on his potential-better for us. I saw RGIII interviewed and he noted that he received almost no BCS offers to play QB because most thought he couldn't do it at the next level.
For every RG3, Rodney, or Scotty, there are 1,000 lightly recruited guys that don't work out. This has been pointed out before, but the scouting services (although not 100% accurate) have a pretty good track record of predicting success. Also, the Top 10 BCS programs are Top 10 programs for a reason, and it's not because they're recruiting a bunch of unknown players.
With that said, I'm stoked about this guy!!!!
White_Rabbit
Well-Known Member
May I ask, what do you think is wrong with our team? We're loaded with guys who were underrated and overlooked. Surely Hawk knew what he was doing since he recruited Speedy and Scotty, so talent evaluation wasn't the issue.
I have found the flaw in your logic...
White_Rabbit
Well-Known Member
I don't think there was any logic in that...
boydbuff
Club Member
I never said that a roster full of 2* talent is going to win the Pac 12. I am saying that some of our recruits will be highly rated and highly sought out by top teams around the country and some won't for a variety of reasons. And some of those that are not highly recruited turn out to be some of the best players the Buffs, or any team, has ever had. We can't get down on recruits if some of them are not blue chippers with 25 offers. If all 28+/- recruits in this class were low rated and lacking in any BCS offers than I'd say you are right. But we already have commits who have been sought out by most of the Pac 12 and other major conferences.
Perhaps in the future we can have say 15-20 blue chippers and 5-10 diamonds in the rough but getting down on a guy like Abron with his on-field performance because he doesn't have many BCS offers is ridiculous-to me anyway.
I love how this wonderful argument returns over and over again.
White_Rabbit
Well-Known Member
I can live with this; however, I think it is important to acknowledge that getting under the radar guys should not be the way to go most of the time. 5-10 diamonds in the rough is way too many imo, especially when it's closer to 10. The fact is, for every Speedy or Scotty, there are dozens of kids on our team that had no offers and are doing absolutely nothing for us.
I agree that this kid looks good, and I have no answer for why this kid has no other decent offers. This kid went completely under the radar and it's hard to understand why. His high school plays big time competition, there are a bunch of D1 recruits on his team, so colleges most definitely were stopping by and decided Abron wasn't worth their time. I think our coaches are good evaluators, but it's not like the other guys are chopped liver. I mean, we're not even talking Tupuo level of under the radar, he at least had some MWC type offers, this kid has Idaho and Stony Brook? No Fresno State? SDSU? SJSU?
It's kind of like biting your tongue or stubbing your toe.
boydbuff
Club Member
I agree but don't think the argument will ever die. There will always be people more biased towards stars and how many offers the recruits get and there will always be people who kind of like rooting for the underdog and also like supporting the coaches who get paid big $ to do this for a living. I lean towards the latter but I get a woody just like everyone else when a major recruit chooses us over The Ohio State, USC, Texas or any of the big name schools.
It is pretty funny, but at the same time, not so much. It comes up on a regular basis for a reason. There are still several kids in every class for us that incite this debate. Probably too many.
As far as RGIII being in this conversation... uh, yeah. Trust me, if the Buffs ever sign a consensus Texas top 100 player who sets state records in both hurdles events (and comes close to setting a national record), no one will question whether we should be taking him or not.
buffsyko
Club Member
Seeing a bunch of 2 star and unrated guys visiting and now commiting . For the hypocrites on this board. This is the same type of recruiting myself and many of you bashed hawkins for. So, what is the story this year?
Is this the type of recruiting that will improve cu? Are these the "guys" embree needed to bring in?
Maybe these unrated guys will pan out but like clockwork. when we don't get any 4 star guys the rankings are BS, but when we do bring in some top level talent the rankings are gospel....sigh....
Is this the type of recruiting that will improve cu? Are these the "guys" embree needed to bring in?
Maybe these unrated guys will pan out but like clockwork. when we don't get any 4 star guys the rankings are BS, but when we do bring in some top level talent the rankings are gospel....sigh....
White_Rabbit
Well-Known Member
You know, it is possible to both support the coaches while at the same time question the results from time to time. I tried to blindly following of the coaches last time, didn't work so well. Embree and crew are a much better staff imo, but they're hardly perfect. If we just chalk it up to "well the coaches make the big bucks so I hope this works out for us!!" then we aren't going to have much to talk about on here.
It is an endless debate that will never be over, although it should be. I figured I'd give it a shot with you because I thought I might be able to change your mind. It's pretty simple statistics really. But if you're not open to it then there's not much more that can be said.
I have wondered a few times if we are doing some of the same justifying we did during the Hawkins years on some of these kids that don't garner much interest. Maybe the only way to know will be to get them here and see how they work out.
It's not like we have all the options in the world anyway as the blue chippers keep making their choices. Give the staff some space I guess and see how it works out.
It's not like we have all the options in the world anyway as the blue chippers keep making their choices. Give the staff some space I guess and see how it works out.
boydbuff
Club Member
Oh I am open. I 100% believe that if you did a thorough statistical analysis, programs that have higher ratings for the recruiting class out-perform those that don't. Of course there are a lot of variables beyond the ranking of the class-like quality of coaches, trainers, facilities, community support, role of the AD, conference, etc. Regardless of those other variables, I'd put my money any day on a class of blue-chips over a class of lightly recruited guys any day.
However I do not think that we need to criticize every recruit we get just because they are not highly recruited! That is where you and I differ. Some of the recruits we are getting we were early on and I think our staff is already proving itself by getting in on some real diamonds that will possibly become 4 starts by Feb. 1st. But I insist that all recruiting classes should have some under-recruited guys. They come in with a chip on their shoulder and something to prove. I really do feel we should have trust in this staff. The big difference is our staff is full of proven BCS recruiters whereas Hawks staff was made up of mostly BSU recruiters.
I'm not sure who are you talking about but if you mean Tupou, I think the answer is definitely yes, he will likely be a star in the future IMO
For Abron, I'm not sure. I guess EB loves him though so I don't really care. I trust EB more than any one in DH's coaches
White_Rabbit
Well-Known Member
If you're open then change you damn mind and agree with me! :smile2:
I get what you're saying and I agree to an extent, but I certainly don't think we have anyone that is going to get 4 stars by the time we wrap this thing up. I also am not criticizing guys like Abron, I'm simply noting that as a 2* with no good offers, he faces an uphill battle to become a good player. Sometimes those kids do have chips on their shoulder and prove people wrong (Speedy and Scotty), but others just don't ever do anything (not going to name names, but think cornerbacks on the team this year).
Lastly I'll just say that I'm a realist. As much as I hope this kid shatters EB's CU rushing record, I have to acknowledge that the odds are against him. As I'm sure you'll argue, kids slip through the cracks all of the time and become big time players. Problem being, tons more do not.
I get what you're saying and I agree to an extent, but I certainly don't think we have anyone that is going to get 4 stars by the time we wrap this thing up. I also am not criticizing guys like Abron, I'm simply noting that as a 2* with no good offers, he faces an uphill battle to become a good player. Sometimes those kids do have chips on their shoulder and prove people wrong (Speedy and Scotty), but others just don't ever do anything (not going to name names, but think cornerbacks on the team this year).
Lastly I'll just say that I'm a realist. As much as I hope this kid shatters EB's CU rushing record, I have to acknowledge that the odds are against him. As I'm sure you'll argue, kids slip through the cracks all of the time and become big time players. Problem being, tons more do not.
boydbuff
Club Member
:lol: I think we are closer to agreeing than you think. We both agree that blue chips are better than lightly recruited players more often than not. We would both prefer a recruiting class full of 4-5* players that we are competing head on with the biggest schools in the U.S. We both agree that it is not uncommon for lightly recruited players to play lights out and over-achieve. We both agree that happens less frequently than playing lights out. Odds will be in favor of no-brainer prospects (even though they sometimes underachieve too).
I just don't want to always criticize recruits because they weren't 4*-especially once they commit to our team. We need to support our coaches and our new recruits. While this is just a fan site for a bunch of old dudes wishing they were playing ball at CU (at least I wish I had been good enough too
, we actually matter. Recruits look at this site. Their parents look at this site. Coaches are fired based on fan and alumni support, etc. Let's give this coaching staff the benefit of the doubt-they bleed black and gold as much or more than we do and they have pretty good pedigrees-especially on the recruiting side.Go Buffs!
White_Rabbit
Well-Known Member
If I'm not bitching about lack of offers then how else can we assist the coaches in lighting a fire under these kids? :smile2:
boydbuff
Club Member
Ok, OK, I agree with you ***hole
White_Rabbit
Well-Known Member
:lol: Success! Now it's your job to change Mtn's mind.
Good luck.
Good luck.
aeroxx
New Member
For me what settles this debate is speed. Can the kid run? Abron certainly can. In the open field, he looks faster to me that Stewart or any running back we've had in a long time. We'll see how he responds to the weights and conditioning.
Even if Abron doesn't pan out that doesn't mean that it wasn't worth taking a chance on him. The expected outcome is the probability multiplied by the amount of potential. Even if he has a 30% chance of becoming a superstar,, that is a bet you want to make. And you might want to take that bet against a 4 star who doesn't have as much upside.
Would I choose Abron over Jonathorn Gray or the 5* kid who went to florida and runs a 4.3, no. But this year, with our record, that is not the choice we face. Hopefully next year it is.
I think the story with Abron and why he wasn't recruited hard has to do with his coach. The assistant coach was the WR Lawson's father. He was supposed to be a real piece of work. In a number of highlight videos of the team, which he produced, he seems to focusing on his son at the expense of Abron. So there might be some nasty politics behind the scenes that have obscured Abron's visibility to the Pac 12 schools. I hope I'm wrong and it is some other factor, like Big name schools overly rely on third party agencies for compiling recruiting lists, instead of doing their own evaluations, like our coaching staff is doing.
Even if Abron doesn't pan out that doesn't mean that it wasn't worth taking a chance on him. The expected outcome is the probability multiplied by the amount of potential. Even if he has a 30% chance of becoming a superstar,, that is a bet you want to make. And you might want to take that bet against a 4 star who doesn't have as much upside.
Would I choose Abron over Jonathorn Gray or the 5* kid who went to florida and runs a 4.3, no. But this year, with our record, that is not the choice we face. Hopefully next year it is.
I think the story with Abron and why he wasn't recruited hard has to do with his coach. The assistant coach was the WR Lawson's father. He was supposed to be a real piece of work. In a number of highlight videos of the team, which he produced, he seems to focusing on his son at the expense of Abron. So there might be some nasty politics behind the scenes that have obscured Abron's visibility to the Pac 12 schools. I hope I'm wrong and it is some other factor, like Big name schools overly rely on third party agencies for compiling recruiting lists, instead of doing their own evaluations, like our coaching staff is doing.
buffsyko
Club Member
Then the coaches will have to get the max potential of who's on board and "coach them up". CU has to WIN and win next season. Get to a bowl game, show progress. A 5-7 season or worse is not going to improve recruiting obviously.