The value of lightly recruited guys, stars vs offer lists, recruiting services, etc

[Buffnik]

For me what settles this debate is speed. Can the kid run? Abron certainly can. In the open field, he looks faster to me that Stewart or any running back we've had in a long time. We'll see how he responds to the weights and conditioning.

Even if Abron doesn't pan out that doesn't mean that it wasn't worth taking a chance on him. The expected outcome is the probability multiplied by the amount of potential. Even if he has a 30% chance of becoming a superstar,, that is a bet you want to make. And you might want to take that bet against a 4 star who doesn't have as much upside.

Would I choose Abron over Jonathorn Gray or the 5* kid who went to florida and runs a 4.3, no. But this year, with our record, that is not the choice we face. Hopefully next year it is.

I think the story with Abron and why he wasn't recruited hard has to do with his coach. The assistant coach was the WR Lawson's father. He was supposed to be a real piece of work. In a number of highlight videos of the team, which he produced, he seems to focusing on his son at the expense of Abron. So there might be some nasty politics behind the scenes that have obscured Abron's visibility to the Pac 12 schools. I hope I'm wrong and it is some other factor, like Big name schools overly rely on third party agencies for compiling recruiting lists, instead of doing their own evaluations, like our coaching staff is doing.

Interesting. You never know if there's a rub somewhere. A lot of times there can be reasons that aren't publicized. With Abron, all I can know are what I can see on film and that I trust Eric Bieniemy to know if a RB has what it takes to be successful in his system.

 

[buffs04]

Every single time CU recruits a low-rated player this happens:


A handful of posters react as if the ** with few offers and no competing BCS offers is guaranteed to be a superstar.

Eventually, someone will disagree, even though they know the fan police are coming.

Rodney Stewart will then be offered as a retort by one of the individuals claiming that we have just landed the next Adrian Peterson.

Further anecdotes about (insert outlier here) will be provided, and someone who doesn't understand how statistics works will declare that star ratings are meaningless and that the player doesn't have many offers because other schools knew he was going to CU.

In response, another poster will attempt to explain the reality that star rankings are predictive of success.

An emotionally-charged retort will be offered by the player in question's designated champion, and the thread will be over.

Like clockwork.

 

[rodrigo]

...someone who doesn't understand how statistics works will declare that star ratings are meaningless...

THAT is funny.

 

[Swish]

Every single time CU recruits a low-rated player this happens:


A handful of posters react as if the ** with few offers and no competing BCS offers is guaranteed to be a superstar.

Eventually, someone will disagree, even though they know the fan police are coming.

Rodney Stewart will then be offered as a retort by one of the individuals claiming that we have just landed the next Adrian Peterson.

Further anecdotes about (insert outlier here) will be provided, and someone who doesn't understand how statistics works will declare that star ratings are meaningless and that the player doesn't have many offers because other schools knew he was going to CU.

In response, another poster will attempt to explain the reality that star rankings are predictive of success.

An emotionally-charged retort will be offered by the player in question's designated champion, and the thread will be over.

Like clockwork.

In other words there's no need to post, its all been played out before.

 

[DFW Buff]

From 2008.... Two star recruits: Stewart, Ewing, Vigo. Four star recruits: Givens, Mohler, Major, and D. Scott ( actually a 5 star)... What does that tell ya? Tells me the rating system might or might not be a good a good indicator of success in College.

 

[DFW Buff]

Every single time CU recruits a low-rated player this happens:


A handful of posters react as if the ** with few offers and no competing BCS offers is guaranteed to be a superstar.

Eventually, someone will disagree, even though they know the fan police are coming.

Rodney Stewart will then be offered as a retort by one of the individuals claiming that we have just landed the next Adrian Peterson.

Further anecdotes about (insert outlier here) will be provided, and someone who doesn't understand how statistics works will declare that star ratings are meaningless and that the player doesn't have many offers because other schools knew he was going to CU.

In response, another poster will attempt to explain the reality that star rankings are predictive of success.

An emotionally-charged retort will be offered by the player in question's designated champion, and the thread will be over.

Like clockwork.

Glad i could oblige

 

[30Something]

Every single time CU recruits a low-rated player this happens:


A handful of posters react as if the ** with few offers and no competing BCS offers is guaranteed to be a superstar.

Eventually, someone will disagree, even though they know the fan police are coming.

Rodney Stewart will then be offered as a retort by one of the individuals claiming that we have just landed the next Adrian Peterson.

Further anecdotes about (insert outlier here) will be provided, and someone who doesn't understand how statistics works will declare that star ratings are meaningless and that the player doesn't have many offers because other schools knew he was going to CU.

In response, another poster will attempt to explain the reality that star rankings are predictive of success.

An emotionally-charged retort will be offered by the player in question's designated champion, and the thread will be over.

Like clockwork.

REP! This post should simply automatically added to any thread dealing with this topic. Make it so.

 

[CUFan]

From 2008.... Two star recruits: Stewart, Ewing, Vigo. Four star recruits: Givens, Mohler, Major, and D. Scott ( actually a 5 star)... What does that tell ya? Tells me the rating system might or might not be a good a good indicator of success in College.

Truly you have a dizzying intellect.

 

[prime teets]

for junc

 

[DFW Buff]

Truly you have a dizzying intellect.

That was my point, its hard to draw any conclusions.

 

[Darth Snow]

That was my point, its hard to draw any conclusions.

Your point has been made a 1000 times. And your argument sucks. It ranks right up there with people getting mad when a recruit turns cu down and saying "good riddance. we want kids who want to be buffs"

 

[boydbuff]

I think most people agree on this topic more than we all realize. While the debate keeps emerging because there is a new recruiting cycle every year and also new ABers join, noone would argue the following I don't think:

1.) It is better to have a recruiting class with an average star rating of 4, than an average star rating of 2
2.) Recruiting services for a range of reasons sometimes widely underestimate the potential of some kids (i.e. some kids who are labelled 2 stars should actually be 3 or 4)
3.) Some kids were labelled accurately at the time as say 2 stars but due to coaching, bulking up, intangibles, etc. they way outperform
4.) Most everyone loves the underdog so most of us get pumped up when walk-ons and lightly recruited players light it up
5.) All things being equal, we prefer to get big, fast, strong, highly talented, widely recruited 4 and 5 star players.
6.) Buffs are going to blow **** up in the next few years

 

[J.R. Ewing]

Interesting. You never know if there's a rub somewhere. A lot of times there can be reasons that aren't publicized. With Abron, all I can know are what I can see on film and that I trust Eric Bieniemy to know if a RB has what it takes to be successful in his system.

Stuff like this happens in recruiting. My brother was an offensive lineman who spent his jr and sr years at a high school down in Houston after spending his fr and soph years in Denver. His TX team was 1-9 both years. He was getting some strong interest from some pretty good schools (aTm, Arkansas, K-state, Okie light, etc), but interest died off as soon as they spoke with his HS coach. My brother's best friend's father was head of the booster club and was publicly working over time to get the coach fired for his dismal performance. The coach made it no secret that he was doing my brother and his friend no favors when it came to recruiting. In the end, my brother took a last min PWO at UHouston that his old coach back in Denver arranged, and his HS coach in Houston was fired in disgrace. Univ Hou got a bargain, and my brother was given the next open scholly.

 

[sackman]

Lower ranked players can do one of three things. They can A) come in, blow everybody away and prove the recruiting services wrong; B) come in, work hard, push the starters and help make the team better; or C) take up space on the roster. Two of those things are good. The trick is obviously to get as many guys who will do the first two things and avoid the guys who will do the last one.

Teams like USC, Texas, etc don't get a lot of lower ranked players. I think that hurts them in some ways. You get a team filled with egos and you start having political issues in the locker room. You need role players. Every team needs guys who will push and claw and scratch for their 3-4 plays per game because they keep the 4* and 5* players honest.

 

[Unleash Hell]

Offers is what I look at more than anything, however, I am willing to allow a few of the under radar guys, because a lot of times they do work out.

 

[BlackNGold]

I do not follow recruiting in detail but I sense a difference this year over the past few years. I know that one reason that Hawkins was recruiting lightly recruited players is because he was not really in on the more highly rated prospects (this happened for a variety of reasons). It appears this staff is evaluating players carefully and then pursuing them.

Remember the recruiting services rate to some extent by which schools are going after a player so they are reactive whereas someone at the schools needs to be doing an independent evaluation. It is not in my mind a matter of recruiting the under the radar guys it is more of a matter of how good is this staff at evaluating talent and projecting it at this level. That we will not know for awhile. If CU has success on the field all of a sudden their recruits will be ranked higher because the services will value the staffs evaluation more.

Now my head is really dizzy.

 

[Quattro]

Stars are nice and all but if you don't have a staff that can develop players it's useless.

FWIW Abron in a interview said he had other offers other than the ones listed.

 

[buffsyko]

Stars are nice and all but if you don't have a staff that can develop players it's useless.

FWIW Abron in a interview said he had other offers other than the ones listed.

But you have more wiggle room with those guys than unrated guys and projects.