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2012-13 Bubble Watch

No the Terps won't when the conference dissolves like the Big East, maybe it won't quite like that, but WVU made the right move, you think they wish they had remained in the Big East or America 12? I agree the novelty will wear off eventually, but when FSU/Clemson/NC State are all in different conferences won't matter as much. If basketball was the only thing that matter I'd agree with you, but football and markets drive this stuff. I was against at first, but I think ultimately it's the right move.

In terms of the game itself, I think Maryland needs to make the finals at minimum, but will probably need to win it all to get the bid. I looked at the scenarios and that's the only really way I see them getting in, maybe if Kentucky loses that opens things up a bit.

The ACC isn't dissolving. Maryland could have stayed right at home in a conference that suited it well. The ACC wasn't the problem. It was your previous AD. It was a desperate financial move that went overboard and will look silly in the long run. JMO.

And I mentioned WVU had no other option. Yet here they are bitching about the travel.

Agreed on needing to make the final, at minimum, and that's with things opening up today.
 
The ACC isn't dissolving. Maryland could have stayed right at home in a conference that suited it well. The ACC wasn't the problem. It was your previous AD. It was a desperate financial move that went overboard and will look silly in the long run. JMO.

And I mentioned WVU had no other option. Yet here they are bitching about the travel.

Agreed on needing to make the final, at minimum, and that's with things opening up today.
I wouldn't be too sure of that, just about every team is rumored be moving but Duke and Wake. And if the Big Ten, SEC, or Big 12 expand, they'll be targeting ACC teams. The only conference I think is safe barring Texas moving. I could then see the P12 making a play, but the Longhorn Network is probably a dealbreaker anyways.

I think MD administration evaluated everything including the landscape, they didn't just make this decision in a vacuum In terms of basketball, since they don't have the home-and-home with Duke anymore, I think it makes it more bearable.
 
I wouldn't be too sure of that, just about every team is rumored be moving but Duke and Wake. And if the Big Ten, SEC, or Big 12 expand, they'll be targeting ACC teams. The only conference I think is safe barring Texas moving. I could then see the P12 making a play, but the Longhorn Network is probably a dealbreaker anyways.

I think MD administration evaluated everything including the landscape, they didn't just make this decision in a vacuum In terms of basketball, since they don't have the home-and-home with Duke anymore, I think it makes it more bearable.

I have good reason to believe the ACC is far more stable than some claim. Virginia is not moving anywhere in the current landscape baring this being the most close to the vest operation in athletic history. Maryland made a desperate decision based on financial desperation. It wasn't some genius Maryland move jumping ahead of a crumbling ACC. Again, just take it FWIW.

Congrats on beating Duke. Everyone loves to see Duke lose :nod: awesome
 
Kentucky loses to Vanderbilt 64-48. Still hard to believe Kentucky is actually not going to be selected, but this is a sub-100 loss. They've got to be out of the current brackets as it stands. What the committee decides to do is another story. The NCAA tournament has similar aims to any regular TV show, don't forget...
 
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Lunardi latest update. Ole Miss last IN, Rebs play Mizzou in a few minutes. Virginia first OUT. Kentucky 2nd OUT.

And, as CVille with his advanced knowledge has been warning Cal fans, they're drifting ever-dangerously close. Now listed 3 spots from the 'First Four'. I'm not saying they're going to get left out, but I am saying if a Pac-12 team gets snubbed, it's going to be Cal.
 
CVille, am I completely insane in thinking that we match up well with Louisville? I was watching them beat ND and thinking that we could possibly beat them. It would take us playing a great game, but possible.
 
CVille, am I completely insane in thinking that we match up well with Louisville? I was watching them beat ND and thinking that we could possibly beat them. It would take us playing a great game, but possible.

Chane Behanan and Dieng will be a load to handle. Behanan is only 6'6", but he goes 250 and is a beast of an athlete.
 
Ole Miss beats Mizzou. Ole Miss is in as it stands with all the mayhem on the bubble today. However, they're still just barely clinging. Lunardi's final team in. Ole Miss plays Vanderbilt tomorrow, if they fall victim to Vandy like Kentucky did, then Ole Miss will fall back out.

Today was complete mayhem

Lunardi's final update as of 1230 AM EST

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/79636/bracket-update-fridays-final-look
He pronounced the Terps "in" on Twitter with a win over UNC. I thought they almost had to win the ACC Tourney to get in, but I'm more and more convinced they can get in as an AT-L provided they win tomorrow.

It's funny because they've had three so-called "must win" games they've all lost -- BC, GT, UVA AND lost them all. I can't believe they are actually in the conversation given all that, lack of road wins, and terrible OOC sked.
 
CVille, am I completely insane in thinking that we match up well with Louisville? I was watching them beat ND and thinking that we could possibly beat them. It would take us playing a great game, but possible.

I'm no expert on them, but Louisville strikes me as a 'good at everything, but not great at any one single thing' type of team overall. Certainly have some serious talent. The real only hope for beating them is Smith having a total off night, that's how Villanova did it. Getting Dieng in early foul trouble would probably be a must as well.
 
Saturday bubble. By this point, we've got Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Boise State and La Salle sitting around anxiously awaiting their fate. Still some crucial games, however.

Memphis vs Southern Miss. Southern Miss 25-8 RPI 31. Don't be fooled by the gaudy record or the RPI. Southern Miss has a garbage resume. They have two fringe top 100 wins. That's it. Not to mention a recent sub-200 loss to Marshall. Southern Miss isn't getting an at-large bid. They might be close, but it just isn't going to happen. If they beat Memphis, they get the auto-bid, and Memphis will take an at-large, thus shrinking the bubble by a spot. That's why this game is so crucial.

Florida vs Alabama. Alabama 21-11 RPI 60. Alabama beat Tennessee in a bubble battle to keep their hopes alive. However, Alabama simply has to beat Florida to have any legitimate hope of getting in. 1 top 50 win. 4 sub-100 losses. Florida must be defeated to have any chance. As it stands, their win today has surged them to Lunardi's 3rd team out.

Vanderbilt vs Ole Miss. Ole Miss 24-8 RPI 52. Huge win for Ole Miss over Mizzou gave them a much needed resume boost. Unthinkable they're back in the projected field after losing to Mississippi State last week, but here they are as Lunardi's last team in. This gave Ole Miss a much needed 2nd top 50 win, both over Mizzou. The problem is 2 sub-200 losses. Vandy is a sub-100 RPI landmine they can't afford. Must-win for the Rebs to remain with a solid chance of sneaking in.

North Carolina vs Maryland. Maryland 22-11 RPI 62. Maryland kept their hopes alive with a gutsy win over Duke. It has brought their RPI win range of sneaking in. However, they're still on the outside. Lunardi's 4th team out. Maryland now has 3 top 50 wins, 2 of which were against Duke. Yet they only have 4 top 100 wins total. They finished 8-10 in the ACC in a major down year for the conference. Their OOC SOS is below 300. They were swept by fellow bubble team Virginia. Basically, Maryland has to beat North Carolina tomorrow to have any chance.

VCU vs UMass. UMass 21-10 RPI 55. Absolute long shot for an at-large, but they beat Temple today, IF they beat VCU, they'd have 3 top 50 wins, 9 top 100 wins. Only 2 sub 100 losses, neither of which are completely horrendous. This could be one of these 'where the hell did they come from' decisions by the committee, so I'm just warning you. Zero chance without a win over VCU, though. And even then, highly unlikely. UMass should be counting on an auto-bid baring committee going 2011 UAB on us.
 
North Carolina vs Maryland. Maryland 22-11 RPI 62. Maryland kept their hopes alive with a gutsy win over Duke. It has brought their RPI win range of sneaking in. However, they're still on the outside. Lunardi's 4th team out. Maryland now has 3 top 50 wins, 2 of which were against Duke. Yet they only have 4 top 100 wins total. They finished 8-10 in the ACC in a major down year for the conference. Their OOC SOS is below 300. They were swept by fellow bubble team Virginia. Basically, Maryland has to beat North Carolina tomorrow to have any chance.
If we treat this like the standings, I think the Terps are "in" if they win tomorrow most likely. However, if they lose in the Finals then they could move "out." I totally agree if they lose, they are done. Also, if a teams like Vandy/UMass win their tourney's, they might be out based on that.
 
If we treat this like the standings, I think the Terps are "in" if they win tomorrow most likely. However, if they lose in the Finals then they could move "out." I totally agree if they lose, they are done. Also, if a teams like Vandy/UMass win their tourney's, they might be out based on that.

Razor thin for all involved, that Southern Miss/Memphis game is one to especially keep an eye on. As bubble teams desperately need Memphis to win. Southern Miss isn't getting in without the auto-bid, I'm near certain. If you're Maryland, you're just happy about that you still control your own fate. Just go get an auto-bid and it's all taken care of. Not a fun time to be a Kentucky, Virginia, Tennessee, Mid Tennessee, La Salle or Boise State fan.

Hopefully our Buffs are just mentally recharging and getting ready to go. This is what the season is about. This could suddenly turn into a season of dreams with a run. This Thursday Pac-12 exit can pay dividends for rest. You won't be seeing the Buffs run out of steam like we did at the end of UNLV and Baylor last year.
 
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Keep this in mind for the Memphis/southern miss game. Memphis leaves conference USA this year and with them goes the ncaa tourney credits.
 
Vandy is straight kicking Kentucky's ass. 48-29 now. What a disaster if you're Kentucky.

poetic, man. i like it. Vandy is kinda my number 2 team (and i admit sometimes Oklahoma)...since i went there (VU) for a year before some family things brought me back to CO. and i like Stallings. and Calipari is not my favorite guy.
 
poetic, man. i like it. Vandy is kinda my number 2 team (and i admit sometimes Oklahoma)...since i went there (VU) for a year before some family things brought me back to CO. and i like Stallings. and Calipari is not my favorite guy.

Vandy has a chance to pop another bubble when they play Ole Miss today. Vandy is 16-16, playing for their NIT lives. It is a nice boost for a young team if they can make it
 
Vandy could actually get the auto bid. I know this year was a down year but they still have talent. After Ole Miss wouldn't they play Florida/Alabama? A very winnable game.
 
Southern Miss in OT with Memphis in the C-USA championship game after a ridiculous buzzer-beater that required a replay review....
 
What an almost finish. Bubble teams have to be going crazy watching Memphis cough up a lead and opportunities, then knock down big shots to tie.
 
That's it for Southern Miss. The good wins are just non-existent. Can't get an at-large with that resume, you just can't.
 
Lol at the dbag for Memphis who made a spot up 3 as time expired with no defenders around him
 
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