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2012-13 Bubble Watch

That's the end of the bubble for Maryland. They needed to make the final to have a legitimate chance. They finished 8-10 in the ACC and were swept by Virginia. Those two wins over Duke are nice, but there's not much else there. Have to believe Virginia is ahead in the pecking order, and I'm not being a homer.
 
CarolinaBuff said:
Tar Heels caught a huge break with Duke getting knocked off yesterday.
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Yeah, his name is Karl Hess. He's been terrorizing everyone not named North Carolina or Duke for years

The good news is the Heels likely move up and it's increasingly unlikely CU will face them, though it could happen as 7/10 or 6/11. That's not a game we want for a first opponent.
 
CVilleBuff said:
Yeah, his name is Karl Hess. He's been terrorizing everyone not named North Carolina or Duke for years

The good news is the Heels likely move up and it's increasingly unlikely CU will face them. That's not a game we want for a first opponent.
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Damm, where was Hess yesterday when I needed him! :lol:
 
tante said:
Didn't VCU get in over us with a similar resume in 2011m
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yeah. maybe, but didn't they also make the Sweet 16. hard to argue with that. i think USC getting in over us was more the crappable issue.

edit: that's prolly not your point tante.....in context.
 
This MWC championship game is pretty entertaining. CBS put up a very interesting graphic a few minutes before the half comparing UNM's resume to Gonzaga's:

RPI - Gonzaga 6, UNM 2
SOS - Gonzaga 74, UNM 2
wins against RPI top 50: Gonzaga 6, UNM 9
 
Sorry if this was covered already, but was listening to Clough and Terry Frei this AM and both are convinced CU does not make it.
 
tante said:
Didn't VCU get in over us with a similar resume in 2011m
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VCU had 3 top 50 wins, 8 top 100. Southern Miss has 0 top 50 wins, 2 top 100. If one of the no good wins party is getting in, it's going to be Middle Tennessee IMO. This is, of course, based on actual knowledge of college basketball. You'd be amazed how clueless some committee members actually are...

Now, VCU finished 4th in the CAA and had no business getting in over CU (and before someone responds "But CVille they made the Final Four lolz!" What you do once in the Dance has zero to do with it, your resume before the Dance is your resume)
 
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CVilleBuff said:
VCU had 3 top 50 wins, 8 top 100. Southern Miss has 0 top 50 wins, 2 top 100. If one of the no good wins party is getting in, it's going to be Middle Tennessee IMO. This is, of course, based on actual knowledge of college basketball. You'd be amazed how clueless some committee members actually are...

Now, VCU finished 4th in the CAA and had no business getting in over CU (and before someone responds "But CVille they made the Final Four lolz!" What you do once in the Dance has zero to do with it, your resume before the Dance is your resume)
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That's a great point. As Bilas likes to say anybody can win games in this tournament, but it's all about what you did to deserve to get in.
 
GoonieBuff said:
I heard their drivel too. Frei is a moron, and Clough is nearing senility.
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Clough will say anything that will piss people off. It's his schtick. Frei, on the other hand, is a "buff fan" who seems to believe that CU has some massive karmic debt to repay for one reason or another and that bad things will always happen to CU because they deserve it....
 
CVilleBuff said:
That's the end of the bubble for Maryland. They needed to make the final to have a legitimate chance. They finished 8-10 in the ACC and were swept by Virginia. Those two wins over Duke are nice, but there's not much else there. Have to believe Virginia is ahead in the pecking order, and I'm not being a homer.
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UVA is ahead and I say that as a Terps fan. They beat them twice, including last week when the Terps desperately needed that win to have a real shot at the Tourney short of an automatic bid (at the time, it looked like their only path to the Tourney) Some Terps fans are really overvaluing yesterday's Duke win (and the other one a month ago). They conveniently omit the GT, BC, and forementioned UVA losses, the weak occ schedule, and 5-5 last 10 games.

Btw, Cville- did you see the travel subsidy the Terps are getting from the Big 10? I doubt that will change your opinion, just pointing it out though.
 
CVilleBuff said:
VCU had 3 top 50 wins, 8 top 100. Southern Miss has 0 top 50 wins, 2 top 100. If one of the no good wins party is getting in, it's going to be Middle Tennessee IMO. This is, of course, based on actual knowledge of college basketball. You'd be amazed how clueless some committee members actually are...

Now, VCU finished 4th in the CAA and had no business getting in over CU (and before someone responds "But CVille they made the Final Four lolz!" What you do once in the Dance has zero to do with it, your resume before the Dance is your resume)
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While it made it easier to justify their inclusion for many, I agree it doesn't mean they should've been in. If were just basing teams on the 37 most capable teams, it's way different list than picking those 37 that deserve to be in.
 
cubuffs85 said:
UVA is ahead and I say that as a Terps fan. They beat them twice, including last week when the Terps desperately needed that win to have a real shot at the Tourney short of an automatic bid (at the time, it looked like their only path to the Tourney) Some Terps fans are really overvaluing yesterday's Duke win (and the other one a month ago). They conveniently omit the GT, BC, and forementioned UVA losses, the weak occ schedule, and 5-5 last 10 games.

Btw, Cville- did you see the travel subsidy the Terps are getting from the Big 10? I doubt that will change your opinion, just pointing it out though.
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UVA didn't take care of business down the stretch and will probably be left out. However, if Tennessee gets put in over UVA, that's just downright wrong on the part of the committee. UVA beat Tennessee with ease this season. I will never buy the argument that a team like Middle Tennessee, Southern Miss or even St. Mary's is more deserving. Give me the team that's beaten top teams yet has bad losses any day over a team with no good wins, no bad losses. Anyone can have a couple off nights and lose a road game to a bad team. Not everyone can beat good teams. It's really simple, but in this era of being politically correct to **** conferences, we're letting St. Mary's get away with playing essentially no one OOC and then letting them in despite never beating Gonzaga. St. Mary's can schedule how they want, but if you want to schedule **** OOC, then be prepared to beat Gonzaga. If you don't, then you should pay the price. It's an utter joke they're seemingly getting a free pass.

I'm not intimately familiar with Maryland's B1G terms. I recognize it's for the money, but distance is distance. I don't think Maryland is a complete cultural outlier in the B1G, I just don't see any massive advantages. If anything, this ACC tournament was an example of why Maryland shouldn't be leaving. I think anyone outside of a diehard Terp homer recognizes Maryland is going to get clobbered in football and find themselves in the basement of the B1G. Sure, there will be the initial excitement for couple years. The Michigan football game. The Michigan State basketball game. Nevermind that you would have gotten Notre Dame had you stayed in the ACC. There's inevitably going to be that day down the road, say 2016, when Maryland is playing a Tuesday night basketball game in Lincoln, Nebraska, fresh off facing Iowa and Purdue and fans are going to say "Why aren't we in the ACC, playing our longtime conference pals Virginia, Duke and North Carolina?".
 
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CVilleBuff said:
I'm not intimately familiar with Maryland's B1G terms. I recognize it's for the money, but distance is distance. I don't think Maryland is a complete cultural outlier in the B1G, I just don't see any massive advantages. If anything, this ACC tournament was an example of why Maryland shouldn't be leaving. I think anyone outside of a diehard Terp homer recognizes Maryland is going to get clobbered in football in find themselves in the basement of the B1G. Sure, there will be the initial excitement for couple years. The Michigan football game. The Michigan State basketball game. Nevermind that you would have gotten Notre Dame had you stayed in the ACC. There's inevitably going to be that day down the road, say 2016, when Maryland is playing a Tuesday night basketball game in Lincoln, Nebraska, fresh off facing Iowa and Purdue and fans are going to say "Why aren't we in the ACC, playing our longtime conference pals Virginia, Duke and North Carolina?".
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They're not doing too well in football right now, even in the weakest BCS conference and I agree with you the novelty will wear off eventually. They would've played ND once every 3 years or something, so that's a home game once every 6 years. They aren't playing home-and-homes with Duke anymore in basketball, they're playing them with Pittsburgh. It's about the $$$ sure, but being part of the ACC isn't the same today as it was in 2000. And I do believe there's a decent chance of the league disintegrating further. Let me put this way, 5 years ago, you would've thought it was more likely for FSU to leave the ACC and NOT Maryland.
 
cubuffs85 said:
They're not doing too well in football right now, even in the weakest BCS conference and I agree with you the novelty will wear off eventually. They would've played ND once every 3 years or something, so that's a home game once every 6 years. They aren't playing home-and-homes with Duke anymore in basketball, they're playing them with Pittsburgh. It's about the $$$ sure, but being part of the ACC isn't the same today as it was in 2000. And I do believe there's a decent chance of the league disintegrating further. Let me put this way, 5 years ago, you would've thought it was more likely for FSU to leave the ACC and NOT Maryland.
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Pretty much the same can be said for the B1G though, no? You'll be missing out on certain "big time" programs in football and playing some once in basketball? Just not sure being relegated to a rivalry with Rutgers is where I'd want to be, but to each their own. At heart, you're a basketball school. And while the B1G was better this year, there's no denying the ACC is the basketball conference now that the Big East is gone and Syracuse has joined the party. I really see the ACC as stable now. There are lessons to be learned from WVU's Big XII adventure (I know they had to go, but the distance is turning out to be a MUCH bigger obstacle than they were planning). Even Missouri is looking ridiculous in the SEC and realizing it wasn't all it was made out to be. If the ACC were to collapse -which I strongly believe it won't- Virginia will land on its feet. Far too much to offer for that to not be the case. You dig deeper into Maryland, look at sports like lacrosse. The ACC is Maryland's fit for all the other sports. You're missing out on a conference with UVA, Syracuse, Duke, Notre Dame, North Carolina for lacrosse, for instance.
 
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CVilleBuff said:
Pretty much the same can be said for the B1G though, no? You'll be missing out on certain "big time" programs in football and playing some once in basketball? Just not sure being relegated to a rivalry with Rutgers is where I'd want to be, but to each their own. At heart, you're a basketball school. And while the B1G was better this year, there's no denying the ACC is the basketball conference now that the Big East is gone and Syracuse has joined the party. I really see the ACC as stable now. There are lessons to be learned from WVU's Big XII adventure (I know they had to go, but the distance is turning out to be a MUCH bigger obstacle than they were planning). Even Missouri is looking ridiculous in the SEC and realizing it wasn't all it was made out to be. If the ACC were to collapse -which I strongly believe it won't- Virginia will land on its feet. Far too much to offer for that to not be the case.
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I don't think anyone is seeing a rivalry with Rutgers right now, maybe it will evolve. There was no rivalry with Duke until relatively recently. They'll develop new rivalries.

If this was solely about basketball, they'd likely be staying in the ACC. It's not -- it's about football and markets. It's a stronger basketball conference now, adding Notre Dame/Syracuse/Louisville/Pittsburgh and losing Maryland. FSU/Clemson have been rumored to be on the move, the chips might go from there. Even for a basketball-heavy conference like the ACC, football still matters more than basketball. While were at it, the move is terrible for their lax program since the Big 10 doesn't even have it (as one columnist compared it to if Florida football was no longer competing in the SEC).

Were going in circles on WVU/Mizzou, no need to rehash other than to say, it's a small sample size. It might end up being the case, but it shouldn't be judged on a single season.

I do agree with you on UVA likely finding a landing spot and actually see the Big 10 as their likeliest destination.
 
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