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2020 Draft Buffs

So you'd rather have a QB who played on a mediocre to crappy team and didn't win much, than one who played on a talented team and won at the highest level while being a primary reason for it. Sounds like Jay Cutler and Steven Montez are your guys

Apparently some people still like the hidden gems over the proven winners. Guys like Tua and Burrow are highly rated out of high school for a reason, they are known to be good from an early age. The best high school QB's are most often the best college QB's and the best college QB's are most often the best NFL QB's. Dinging guys for being great their whole life is flat weird.
 
Apparently some people still like the hidden gems over the proven winners. Guys like Tua and Burrow are highly rated out of high school for a reason, they are known to be good from an early age. The best high school QB's are most often the best college QB's and the best college QB's are most often the best NFL QB's. Dinging guys for being great their whole life is flat weird.
I figured Big Jim was correct, but to give me something to think about related to sports, here are the top 10 QBs in QBR from last year, along with which college they attended:

1) Lamar Jackson, Louisville
2) Patrick Mahones, Texas Tech
3) Drew Brees, Purdue
4) Dak Prescott, Miss St
5) Russell Wilson, Wisconsin by way of NC State
6) Matthew Stafford, Georgia
7) DeShaun Watson, Clemson
8) Ryan Fitzpatrick, Harvard (I actually didn't know that - I googled to confirm it was true)
9) Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M
10) Derek Carr, Fresno St

So, you've got 8 P5 QBs, a mensa, and Derek Carr, which reinforces the point that generally speaking, the top NFL QBs play at the highest level of college conference football.
 
I figured Big Jim was correct, but to give me something to think about related to sports, here are the top 10 QBs in QBR from last year, along with which college they attended:

1) Lamar Jackson, Louisville
2) Patrick Mahones, Texas Tech
3) Drew Brees, Purdue
4) Dak Prescott, Miss St
5) Russell Wilson, Wisconsin by way of NC State
6) Matthew Stafford, Georgia
7) DeShaun Watson, Clemson
8) Ryan Fitzpatrick, Harvard (I actually didn't know that - I googled to confirm it was true)
9) Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M
10) Derek Carr, Fresno St

So, you've got 8 P5 QBs, a mensa, and Derek Carr, which reinforces the point that generally speaking, the top NFL QBs play at the highest level of college conference football.

And coincidently, or not, the two non-P5 QBs on that list are at risk of being drafted over this week.
 
Dinging Tua for the talent he had around him is insane. He saved Bama as a true freshman in the national championship, was sensational as a sophomore without playing entire games, and elevated a Bama team that was not great as a junior.

Tua had to elevate BAMA last year on a team that was not great? In what game did he have to elevate something? They blew the doors off of everyone they played except a loss at LSU and 3 point loss against Auburn. BAMA will probably have as many guys drafted in rounds 1-4 than any other team.

And No, I don't prefer Jay Cutler, Montez, Joe Flacco or guys that play on mediocre teams. Safe to say, Tua had tons of weapons at his disposal? I'd love to be the DC to scheme against Juedy, Ruggs, #22 and all the rest of the talent, NOT.
 
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Tua had to elevate BAMA last year on a team that was not great? In what game did he have to elevate something? They blew the doors off of everyone they played except a loss at LSU and 3 point loss against Auburn. BAMA will probably have as many guys drafted in rounds 1-4 than any other team.

And No, I don't prefer Jay Cutler, Montez, Joe Flacco or guys that play on mediocre teams. Safe to say, Tua had tons of weapons at his disposal? I'd love to be the DC to scheme against Juedy, Ruggs, #22 and all the rest of the talent, NOT.
Your reasoning for discounting Tua was because he played with a ton of talent around him.
 
Tua had to elevate BAMA last year on a team that was not great? In what game did he have to elevate something? They blew the doors off of everyone they played except a loss at LSU and 3 point loss against Auburn. BAMA will probably have as many guys drafted in rounds 1-4 than any other team.

And No, I don't prefer Jay Cutler, Montez, Joe Flacco or guys that play on mediocre teams. Safe to say, Tua had tons of weapons at his disposal? I'd love to be the DC to scheme against Juedy, Ruggs, #22 and all the rest of the talent, NOT.

It was not a great Bama team. Probably closer to 15 than Top 5ish if he is not the starter. His 2018 season with talented but inexperienced WRs was ridiculously good.
 
Dinging Tua for the talent he had around him is insane. He saved Bama as a true freshman in the national championship, was sensational as a sophomore without playing entire games, and elevated a Bama team that was not great as a junior.
He did have some great talent on that team but so did Burrow and we aren't hearing that argument about him (Fromm as well.)

The other side of that coin is that we also have tape of Tua and Burrow playing against highly talented defenses, teams with a bunch of NFL prospect DBs and LBs. They also practiced against guys who are NFL level athletes. You could argue that they are more ready for the speed of the NFL game than QBs from other conferences.

I could be wrong but I see Bust all over Herbert. He didn't look to me like a game changer in the PAC12 and he had the more talented team frequently.

Tua is the biggest boom/bust guy. Love his talent, makes things happen. Wonder if he will be able to change his game enough to last any time in a league that tears QBs up. He couldn't stay healthy at Bama, the pros could give him a very short career.

That is why I think Burrow is easily the top pick in the three. Yes he only has one real year to base on but his skill set and style look to be the best bet for a successful NFL career with any length to it.
 
I don't know why anyone is getting attacked for suggesting Tua may be a bust or just an average guy. Lots of scouts think his best football is behind him and that he's peaked. I could see Burrow and Tua being just guys.
 
I don't know why anyone is getting attacked for suggesting Tua may be a bust or just an average guy. Lots of scouts think his best football is behind him and that he's peaked. I could see Burrow and Tua being just guys.
Every QB prospect with the exception of a few every so often could end up being just guys. The vast majority will. The only thing anyone is taking exception with is the idea that Tua will be a bust because he played with a bunch of talent around him, which implies his teammates made him look much better than he really was and that's not the case.
 
I don't know why anyone is getting attacked for suggesting Tua may be a bust or just an average guy. Lots of scouts think his best football is behind him and that he's peaked. I could see Burrow and Tua being just guys.
You can say that about the top QBs in most years.

How many drafts have a QB or more who are really locks to be a quality NFL starter? The college game and the pro game are different levels played with different styles.

Who was the last guy who was truly a 100% (or as close as possible) bet? Andrew Luck?

The QB position though is so important that teams are willing to take the chance. There are guys at other positions in this draft who are much less likely to not make it but they will be drafted after the QBs because they also will have less impact on their team winning and losing.
 
Every QB prospect with the exception of a few every so often could end up being just guys. The vast majority will. The only thing anyone is taking exception with is the idea that Tua will be a bust because he played with a bunch of talent around him, which implies his teammates made him look much better than he really was and that's not the case.
Problem is, that very argument is also being used by the guys who get paid to scout him. It's an argument used every year to downgrade guys, and there is validity to it.
 
Saying Tua may be a bust is not a hot take.

Saying he benefited greatly from all the talent around him ignores a lot his successes at Bama.

Your take makes no sense. Of course he benefited greatly from the talent around him . . .

"Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy, and DeVonta Smith formed one of the strongest receiver trios we've seen in a long time in 2019. He started 12 contests this past season, averaging a team-high 18.7 yards per catch (40-746) and scoring seven touchdowns while also returning kickoffs (12-286-23.8) and taking a backwards pass (counted as a rush) for a 75-yard touchdown against New Mexico State). Ruggs started all 15 games as a sophomore, ranking second in the SEC with 11 receiving touchdowns and grabbing 46 passes for 741 yards overall (16.1 per). The speedster from Montgomery, Alabama, who was a five-star recruit after scoring 20 touchdowns on 102 touches as a senior, played in all 14 games as a reserve his true freshman season (12-229-19.1, six TDs receiving; 13-239-18.4 kick returns; 8-46-5.8 punt returns). If you see Ruggs throw up a three-fingered salute after scoring a touchdown, it is in memory of his friend, Rod Scott, who died in a car accident in 2016. Ruggs had planned on being with Scott that day but fell ill and did not leave the house."

Plus, his Tackle is #1 on the Draft Board.

That does not ignore Tua's success... there is good argument made that his success was in part because of the vast talent around him, plus the multi-million dollar coaches. Also, BAMA always has a stout running game, so it's not like a whole bunch of teams will pin their ears back and come at Tua with a bunch of wild blitz packages... Frankly, his receiver core looks like the backfield of the Pony Excess...

Do you double team the Ruggs who runs the 4.1 or Jeudy who is a top receiver? Better yet double both and deal with DeVonta Smith and have nobody committed to the run game--#22 is no hack either. I give it to you that Tua had an S on his chest during the National Championship Game and played excellent as a Soph, but talent is talent, and if you are surrounded by it . . . you will no doubt do better and have an easier time doing it.

Lastly, it was not like BAMA played a bunch of close games every year calling on Tua to make 4th quarter comeback after comeback... They are just a hell of Football team. I wish Tua good luck, just the question posed was who might one pick as a potential Bust--I and others have picked him. Game over.
 
I wish Tua good luck, just the question posed was who might one pick as a potential Bust--I and others have picked him. Game over.

Game over. Why didn't you just start with this and we would have bowed before your magnificence and proclaimed you King of QB Knowledge. Sheesh man, you wasted a lot of time getting to the kill shot.
 
Trevor Lawrence is drawing Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning and John Elway comps as a generational, can't-miss prospect. I assume Guy Smiley is going to discount his abilities because he plays with arguably the most talented team in the country.

You will have to ask me that next year, as he still has another year of college left. Lawrence does look pretty good. I'll have to see if his WR talent and other talent is as good as Tua's next year. Also, if he stays healthy. I will say this, like BAMA, Clemson is stacked and they only play a few teams each year that are competitive.

Although Carson Palmer, Matt Lienart and Marc Sanchez (he was a multiple winner of the S.B.T.F. of the week) were all 1st rounders, I think scouts have to discount some of their abilities given the talent around them-- or they should have because arguably 2 of the 3 were Busts and none were generational can't miss prospects...

Who the hell even touts QB's as generational can't miss prospects? Wasn't Ryan Leaf a generational can't miss prospect? Joey Harrington? Tim Couch? Geno Torreta? need I go further...
 
Yeah because all the scouts saying the exact same thing just love Montez.
Actually, a lot of scouts view Montez as a sleeper mid round pick. He has no business sniffing the draft, but you know, big arm and tall and everything gets him an invite tot he combine and that kind of praise. If most of us had the same track record of success in our jobs as NFL scouts do in theirs, we would all be unemployed.
 
Actually, a lot of scouts view Montez as a sleeper mid round pick. He has no business sniffing the draft, but you know, big arm and tall and everything gets him an invite tot he combine and that kind of praise. If most of us had the same track record of success in our jobs as NFL scouts do in theirs, we would all be unemployed.

All the same dumb pro-Montez arguments we heard the last three years as the team languished with little leadership and extreme inconsistency from the QB position.
 
You will have to ask me that next year, as he still has another year of college left. Lawrence does look pretty good. I'll have to see if his WR talent and other talent is as good as Tua's next year. Also, if he stays healthy. I will say this, like BAMA, Clemson is stacked and they only play a few teams each year that are competitive.

Although Carson Palmer, Matt Lienart and Marc Sanchez (he was a multiple winner of the S.B.T.F. of the week) were all 1st rounders, I think scouts have to discount some of their abilities given the talent around them-- or they should have because arguably 2 of the 3 were Busts and none were generational can't miss prospects...

Who the hell even touts QB's as generational can't miss prospects? Wasn't Ryan Leaf a generational can't miss prospect? Joey Harrington? Tim Couch? Geno Torreta? need I go further...
No, not really. Just because they were selected high doesn't mean they were touted as generational, can't miss prospects. As I said, Elway, Manning, Luck and now Lawrence are really the only ones who have generally been touted as that kind of prospect. Most everyone else had at least some warts.
 
All the same dumb pro-Montez arguments we heard the last three years as the team languished with little leadership and extreme inconsistency from the QB position.

In line with the argument that college WR are responsible for the success of their QB's, I distinctly remember a couple of posters emphatically stating that Montez was a Round 1 pick in this draft because Shenault would shine and make Montez look great.
 
Actually, a lot of scouts view Montez as a sleeper mid round pick. He has no business sniffing the draft, but you know, big arm and tall and everything gets him an invite tot he combine and that kind of praise. If most of us had the same track record of success in our jobs as NFL scouts do in theirs, we would all be unemployed.
Montez has first round physical traits for a QB. Its not crazy at all that he got a combine invite and will probably get drafted. His work ethic stinks though. The "surrounding talent" argument is the same one being used to defend Jordan Love. He was amazing when he had better talent around him his Soph year.
 
No, not really. Just because they were selected high doesn't mean they were touted as generational, can't miss prospects. As I said, Elway, Manning, Luck and now Lawrence are really the only ones who have generally been touted as that kind of prospect. Most everyone else had at least some warts.

Your point is noted. I'll have to get back to you next year. So much has changed with Pro-Football (so many more complexities) and guys are only an injury away, I'm not sure that you can really tout generation can't miss propects. In going back the last 10 years or so, the guys I would said were "can't miss QB's" would be Cam Newton (he made it to a Superbowl) and maybe Jamies Winston (I did not see enough of his games, but what I saw I really liked, and I believe he is better that what he has displayed so far; I think/hope another chapter could be written about him with different coaches and success)-- just their blend of their leadership, size (so big, few injuries), mobility, arm strength, the overall mental make-up, and their success in college.

Heck, QB is just such a crap shoot in modern football-- Kurt Warner went to three Superbowls, won two league MVPs and for a few years looked like the 2nd coming. In St. Louis, he had Faulk, a great cast around him, and great coaching staff but he played lights-out for two years. Then with Arizona, he somehow made it to the big game again.
 
So much has changed with Pro-Football (so many more complexities) and guys are only an injury away, I'm not sure that you can really tout generation can't miss propects.

In the past 40 years, as noted above, there have been three can't-miss QB prospects through the eyes of the NFL scouting community.

Elway
P. Manning
Luck

Of those three there were actually some scouts that were not as high on Manning that year.

Lawrence is on track to be, the 4th in 40 years. Yet there have been nimrods on this board trying to tout the OSU QB as being a better NFL prospect than Lawrence.
 
Montez has first round physical traits for a QB. Its not crazy at all that he got a combine invite and will probably get drafted. His work ethic stinks though. The "surrounding talent" argument is the same one being used to defend Jordan Love. He was amazing when he had better talent around him his Soph year.
I would say Montez is elite in two categories: Height and Weight. He is above average in one: Arm Strength. He is average or below average in just about every other physical metric. He is wildly inconsistent from an accuracy standpoint, has never shown he consistently knows how to throw with touch, and his mobility is very much average at best, and well below average when he goes into self-preservation mode.
 
I would say Montez is elite in two categories: Height and Weight. He is above average in one: Arm Strength. He is average or below average in just about every other physical metric. He is wildly inconsistent from an accuracy standpoint, has never shown he consistently knows how to throw with touch, and his mobility is very much average at best, and well below average when he goes into self-preservation mode.
He may have the strongest arm in this draft or second to Eason. Depends on how you define mobility as he's a 4.6 forty guy. His lack of footwork negatively effects his pocket mobility though. That's obvious.
 
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