Yep. My B1G tiers as the programs stand going forward (not just a 2024 outlook)...
Tier 1
- Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon
Tier 2
- Penn State, USC
Tier 3
- Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan State, Washington, Minnesota, Nebraska
Tier 4
- UCLA, Illinois, Northwestern, Maryland, Purdue, Indiana, Rutgers
I think you could potentially combine Tier 3 and 4, but just kind of feels like Wis, Iowa and MSU are better programs
I can see that, but I doubt USC will fall into Tier 2 next season.
I think USC's fortunes will either rise or fall with Lincoln Riley. Like UCLA, they have huge expectations, but Riley is only 8-7 over his last 15 games, thus on the hottest seat. Their bowl win over Louisville was huge, but if they lost that game, SC would have lost their last 6 of 7 with a 1 point win over Cal, plus very close escapes against CU and AZ. They played UU's close in the end, but were really pushed around with UU playing 3rd string QB, however they got great comeback losing on a FG. Yet, they were totally really outclassed by ND, UW, ORE, and UCLA. Lost their last 3 at home. The teams that were physical sort of had their way.
Next year, they have no Caleb Williams and basically all their O production is gone: WR: best guys onto NFL, Singer, Mario Williams, Jackson all transferred. RB: Lloyd is NFL bound, RB2 graduated, RB3&4 transferred. They added Mississippi State RB1 GR-T, who has awesome career numbers but suffered a miserable 2023. He was pro-prospect but completely dropped off the NFL radar, thus a 5th year. He only had 573 yards last year, 1/2 of them over the 1st 3 games getting hurt in game 3. He battled ankle/hamstring injuries, split carries, missed 3 games, and was totally ineffective in last 2 to close the season. Health is a serious??. TE--their starter sustained major ACL in bowl; b/u transferred, and best prospects are True-Frosh. Oline has a 2-3 returners, it might be better but I do think Moss is not nearly as mobile as Williams. The offense could surprise--Duece Robinson could be great, Branch is like Dylan Edwards and could surprise. Overall, the offense will have to do it with a bunch of young and untested players.
Then, a complete defense rebuild. The D was horrible last year, but Lynn and the new AC's may be able to do some things here, as they have more upper-classman. Much will depend on how the new D-install goes. I think they added well in the portal with 6 guys, 3-4 will probably start. It will be a new defensive backfield which although talented could have growing pains, same at LB. However, they lost 8 D guys: 5 4*'s as transfers, 2 were probably starters, 3 other significant contributors. Foreman was a RS last year, and probably would have been in 2 deep but for a position change. 6 of the 8 were highly rated Blue Chips out of HS. Also, they did lose a number of starters to graduation. They may have 9 new starters out there.
A few things about Lincoln Riley. In 2022, his hit rate in the transfer portal was exceptional. #1 Class and the guys he got played, played well and were most all P-65, many Blue-Bloods. He signed a touted but small HS class, yet already about 1/2 have departed. In 2023, the hit rate on transfers dropped substantially, yet still rated #3. Bear Alexander, Pregron (OL WY), and Marshawn Lloyd were great, but the others not so much--lower in depth chart and we are now seeing double-transferees out. His 2023 HS class was much larger #8, but some of his biggest additions already portaled. This cycle, we saw many more portal departues than additions with less guys coming in and many from teams in chaos. The HS class is much larger but #17. Overall, he has gone: #6, #7, and #20; so he is dropping.
Barring a bunch of Spring attrition and transfers, USC will be a very young team--32 FR, 17 SO. They lost 21 in TP, gained 9 who will play. They need to hit homeruns on their transfer class + improve on it in the Spring, but only 3 schollies left... The upcoming schedule does them no favors: they open with LSU in Vegas, game 3 @ Mich, then Wisco and Penn State wk 6, and @ Maryland (8-5, crushed Auburn in bowl game) . . . and they end with ND. No OR on the schedule will help them. @UW and @UCLA should be wins, but maybe not easy ones. I could see them having the same depth problems CU had, and get beat up in weeks 1 & 3-5. A bad season and Lincoln Riley could go the way of Chip Kelly.
