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3rd College Football Poll - Tue, Nov 15 (Buffs #10!!!!)
- Thread starter Buffnik
- Start date
Yet for Ohio State, their loss to Penn State will probably allow them to make the playoff without even having to win their conference championship game (because they lose the tie-breaker to PSU). Silly college football.
SINKRATZ
PhD in Analogy
Maybe, although I could definitely see a 2-loss, Big 10 champ Wisconsin or Penn State jumping the buckeyes for a playoff position.
It's almost like losing to Pedo State helps OSU out by letting them avoid a potentially tough matchup in the CCG.
The committee needs to take that **** into account.
I feel like the only way Wisconsin jumps Penn State would be if they avenge one of their losses to Michigan or OSU in the championship game.
Wisconsin wouldn't jump Pedo State if they beat them head to head in the CCG?
Haha obviously they would if Penn State made it. I am basically saying Wisconsin has to avenge one of their losses to OSU or Michigan in the conference championship game in order to make the final 4 IMO.
It is the second week in a row the AP and Coaches poll have placed us essentially where we were in the CFP a week later. Pretty silly.
Wisconsin and CU are in eerily similar situations. Both are 2 loss teams with both losses coming to Michigan and another very high quality team. If both CU and Wisconsin win out, including the CCG, how do you decide between the two, if the 4th spot does come down to one of them?
Yeah if Wisconsin beats Penn State it is almost impossible to judge but if Wisky beat OSU or Michigan I would think they would take Wisconsin.
SINKRATZ
PhD in Analogy
Wisconsin is 5 places ahead of us in the CFP poll - if we both win out, I don't see how we would jump them.
Well we would have beaten 3 straight top 25 teams and likely 2 top 10 teams, that would account for most of the jump.
You're probably right, but when I look at the overall resumes in that scenario, I think they are almost identical.
SINKRATZ
PhD in Analogy
They probably are, but they've got a head start and these scenarios involve them beating a top 10 Penn St team to win the Big 10. And I think this is likely, because I see Ohio State beating Michigan, eliminating both of them from the CCG.
The big question then will be does a 1-loss Ohio State who didn't win their own division make the playoffs over their conference champion? Shades of 2001 Big 12...
Resumes are mostly similar to this point. The one thing Wiscy has on us is beating a still ranked NU squad. If we win out, I think our resume looks better at year's end (Stanford and Washington would still be ranked, along with possibly Utah and/or WSU vs. Penn State/Michigan only as a win in the CCG as I believe NU loses their finale at Iowa and drops out).
One thing I want to clarify, I don't really think CU belongs in a discussion of the top 4 teams in football this year. I believe we are "right there" in the next tier of teams. That being said, I am enjoying the fact that if the cards fall in just such a way, this conversation continues on a national level each week.
Hard to imagine a scenario where CU jumps Wisconsin. Maybe if LSU lost to both Florida and Texas A&M to make that win a lot less meaningful? That, along with CSU getting bowl eligible and Stanford finishing 9-3, could get us close. In all honesty, the worst thing that could happen for us would be Ohio State beating Michigan. The 2-loss winner of the B1G would make the playoff and then there's an excellent chance that a 1-loss Ohio State that got left out would be selected over a 2-loss CU or any champ from the Big 12 (OSU whipped Oklahoma in Norman).
We need Michigan to win out, guys, if we want to have any opportunity.
We need Michigan to win out, guys, if we want to have any opportunity.
Right - I agree with this. The idea that CU is a playoff team feels like a stretch to me. I mean, I would take it if we snuck in and had our shot to make a crazy pass at the National Championship.... but being ranked #12 is pretty awesome in its own right.
SINKRATZ
PhD in Analogy
They beat LSU too.
And there is the issue. LSU is likely going to win out, so that is going to give Wisconsin another quality win.
Things that probably need to happen (in order of importance as I see it):
1. CU wins out (ideally with the Pac-12 championship being over a Top 10, 11-1 Washington instead of a rematch 2nd win over Wazzu).
2. Michigan wins out (2nd loss for Ohio State and then a 3rd loss for Wisconsin in the B1G championship).
3. Big 12 mess: West Virginia loses to Oklahoma this week (2nd loss), Oklahoma State loses at TCU this week (3rd loss) and then OSU beats Oklahoma in the finale (3rd loss). Other scenarios possible, but that's the most likely set of dominoes that are to CU's benefit.
4. Louisville finds a loss either at Houston or vs Kentucky in its final two and/or Clemson loses in the ACC championship to a 3-loss VA Tech.
5. Not having a 2-loss Florida as SEC champion along with a 1-loss Alabama they beat in the title game.
6. Western Michigan losing either its finale vs Toledo or the MAC championship vs Ohio (they won't lose to that horrible Buffalo team this week).
Other things that can help the CU resume:
1. Stanford winning out to go 9-3.
2. CSU winning out or at least winning 1 of 2 to get bowl eligible.
3. USC winning out to go 9-3. (Though an 8-4 finish with UCLA beating them & winning its finale with Cal to get bowl eligible wouldn't be too bad.)
4. Utah taking care of Oregon this week.
5. ASU beating UA so that the Sun Devils become bowl eligible.
It's a lot, of course. But none of it sounds unreasonable to me.
LSU and Nebraska are their only quality wins right now unless they win the B10CG. CU would likely have Stanford, Wazzu, Utah and Washington as quality wins at the end of the season in this scenario.
Washington State could very well lose their last two and drop like a rock.
As Duff pointed out, WSU doesn't actually help us that much because either they beat us (we're done so far as playoffs and CCG is concerned), they lose to us AND UW (they likely drop out of the rankings), or they lose to us, beat UW and we get them a second time in the CCG (either we lose to them and are done or we beat them a second time and they likely drop out).
The best thing for CU is to win out, have UW beat WSU, beat UW in the CCG, and have Michigan, Stanford, and USC win out. that gives 3 quality wins (Stanford, Utah, and UW), and the only losses CU would have would be on the road to teams in the top 10 or top 15 depending where USC ends up.
Also, I don't think Florida beats LSU in Death Valley this week, but LSU could lose to A&M on the road to end the season. Would a 7-4 team still be ranked? Nebraska probably beats Maryland at home this week, but they very likely lose to Iowa the following week. Very possible that Wisky won't have a single win against a top-25 team (unless Iowa sneaks into the top 25 that last week after beating Nubs).
WSU is 7-0 in Pac-12 play. UW is 6-1. The Apple Cup will decide the North Champ regardless of whether CU wins this week.
Only UW can be eliminated Saturday in the unlikely scenario where UW lost at home to ASU and then Wazzu beat us... in which case Wazzu would clinch.
If we did end up winning out and winning the Pac-12, I could see us finishing 5th - a not the same yet not too different scenario as 2001.
Honestly, if I was anyone in the Pac-12 other than a Utah, CU, or Wazzu fan, I'd be hoping UDub wins out and wins the CCG, because they are the only one with a relatively straight path to the CFP.
Honestly, if I was anyone in the Pac-12 other than a Utah, CU, or Wazzu fan, I'd be hoping UDub wins out and wins the CCG, because they are the only one with a relatively straight path to the CFP.
I'm not sure that UW will be ranked ahead of CU in the CFP tomorrow night.
Non-conference: they beat Rutgers, Portland State and Idaho all at home
Conference: they lost to USC at home by 13
Compare that to CU: beat CSU (neutral), Idaho State at home and lost at Michigan by 17
Conference: lost to USC on the road by 4
They might be ranked ahead of us, but it could definitely go the other way.