Math checks out.
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Arizona State is nothing to laugh at
- Thread starter #1 pick
- Start date
That’s what is in the back of my mind. We’ve started poorly or slowly in 4 of our 5 games, our last 4. We need to start like we did versus TCU before the book on us had been written.
Obligatory
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
And you wonder why I've never written a novel in response to something you've said.
Holy. ****. It's possible. Ahoel, that's how you do it!
Counterpoint: Win toss. Take ball, go 3 & out. Give the opponent an extra possession.
Our offense isn’t exactly starting each game on fire, either. I’d rather get the extra second half possession when our offense seems to have its act together.
The "extra possession" is fully dependent on the flow of the game, length and time of drives, turnovers, etc. These are things you can't plan for or assume are going to happen.
statistically you get a better chance at a 2d possession if you defer. You don't plan on it, but it's a plus move.
Stealing a Possession
One of the arguments for deferring the opening kickoff is that it allows for the opportunity to “steal a possession” by scoring at the end of the first half and then also receiving the second half kickoff. In theory, this makes a lot of sense and it turns out it also makes sense in practice. Over the 778 games in our sample, the team that receives the second half kickoff was able to score in the last minute of the first half and on their opening second half drive 12% of the time. When compared to the 0% chance of stealing a possession if you receive the opening kickoff, this becomes a small built-in advantage to deferring to the second half.
Advantages from Receiving to Start Each Half
| Half | Extra Drives | Extra Plays | Extra Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 0.6 | 2.9 | 0.6 |
| 2nd | 0.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 |
Score% and TD% on the 1st and 2nd Drive of Each Half
| Half | Drive | Score% | TD% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1st | 40% | 26% |
| 1 | 2nd | 42% | 27% |
| 2 | 1st | 38% | 24% |
| 2 | 2nd | 41% | 25% |
Big Jim
WTF?
ASU fans are not laughing. Well, they aren't pitching a fit either. They seem to have capitulated and are not following ASU football anymore. I half expect CU fans to outnumber ASU fans on Saturday.
Here are the most recent threads on the ASU 247 board:
- 2023 MLB
- Portal hopes and expectations
- 2023-24 Premier League
- NFL 2023 Regular season
- Punting cost ASU the game vs Cal
- TV/Movie/Pop Culture
- WOW, Nebraska!
Here are the most recent threads on the ASU 247 board:
- 2023 MLB
- Portal hopes and expectations
- 2023-24 Premier League
- NFL 2023 Regular season
- Punting cost ASU the game vs Cal
- TV/Movie/Pop Culture
- WOW, Nebraska!
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I’ll allow a Miami since it is game week
I took it as a counterpoint to the thread title.
**** you. I’ll laugh at whoever I want to. Particularly these desert rats and their day stripper bitches.
Now I am not amused, I am afraid
hawg1
Well-Known Member
That’s the right way to do it. But I think perhaps these times require something different, like taking ball first in OT.
Big Jim
WTF?
Imagine him in a hula hoop and you'll be fine.
do you have any data to cite that getting the ball first in the 2nd half correlates to an extra possession over the course the game?
I've never seen that and didn't immediately find an answer one way or the other from quick googling
It definitely addresses the point I was making. Maybe you don’t understand what I was trying to say. Deferring to the second half has the potential to produce an extra offensive possession. It doesn’t always, but you have roughly a 50/50 chance at that extra possession. That extra possession results in a score 12% of the time. Whereas if you take the ball at the beginning of the game, it’s a zero chance.that doesn't seem to address the point you were making at all. not one bit in there about total number of possessions.
ACK that the title implies something about it
