Bowl projections

[Buffnik]

Wish espn would spend five minutes breaking down the games instead of talking about what might happen if one team wins.

That would require actual knowledge and the ability to communicate your insights to others. Much easier to say "eyeball test" and "resume" while justifying your hot take of agreeing with the order of the AP or Coaches poll and assuming the favorites will win.

 

[Darth Snow]

That would require actual knowledge and the ability to communicate your insights to others. Much easier to say "eyeball test" and "resume" while justifying your hot take of agreeing with the order of the AP or Coaches poll and assuming the favorites will win.

Wouldn't even take that much. Gameday does great breakdowns of plays with herbie. And that's something they do as part of a three hour show. They can do it... They would just rather have sehorn verbally subtweet about how much he hates that CU kept usc out of the championship

 

[Buffnik]

Wouldn't even take that much. Gameday does great breakdowns of plays with herbie. And that's something they do as part of a three hour show. They can do it... They would just rather have sehorn verbally subtweet about how much he hates that CU kept usc out of the championship

Or put on two SEC guys who lost all respect for the Pac-12 in Week One because of the USC and UCLA performances and can't believe that any team from the conference could possibly be worthy.

 

[Denver_sc]

I looked up quite a bit of this stuff, and I think I have the following right:

• Playoff scenarios (CU wins and a few other teams to lose):
  • Semis this year are the Peach and the Fiesta. They are flexible with what teams they slot to which semifinal, taking into account ease of travel for fan base, likely home field advantage, etc. giving preference to the first overall seed.
  • Presuming Alabama is #1, they end up in the Peach. IF CU makes it into the playoff, it will almost surely be as the #4 seed, so the Buffs would be going to Atlanta.
  • There is a very, very slight chance that CU would somehow wind up #3 if there was complete chaos this weekend. That would put the Buffs in the Fiesta, but this is by far the least likely scenario in my opinion.
• CU wins, rest of the games go chalk:
  • Very likely CU ends up outside of the top 4 as P12 Champs. CU goes to the Rose Bowl.
• Favorable scenario- CU loses very close, other results break the right way and UW gets into the playoffs:
  • CU stays ahead of USC in the rankings (not a requirement, but would help) and the Rose Bowl committee likes the novelty of CU's turnaround season, puts CU in the Rose Bowl.
  • CU slides behind USC in the rankings and/or the RB committee decides USC would be better for ratings and attendance and selects USC:
    • As the only of the NY6 non-semi bowls to not have rigid conference affiliation, The Cotton Bowl MUST take WMU as the highest ranked G5 champ. They then get what's left out of everyone else, and I have to think there will be some fanbases they'd like better than CU's. I think the Cotton is just a little more likely than the Fiesta, which is to say not very likely at all.
    • CU likely then slots into the Alamo Bowl- CU's played there in the past in some good games, fanbase likely shows up pretty well in Texas as compared to other P12 schools, nostalgia factor, etc.
• Unfavorable scenario- CU loses, UW somehow gets left out of playoff:
  • UW goes to Rose
  • For the reasons mentioned above, CU is likely more attractive to the Alamo Bowl than USC and slots there.
  • This becomes the nightmare scenario if the Alamo Bowl selects USC- CU then ends up in the Holiday Bowl (or, worse, the Foster Farms bowl). This team deserves better than a 3rd or 4th tier bowl game this year.

 

[Shldr2Shldr]

I looked up quite a bit of this stuff, and I think I have the following right:

• Playoff scenarios (CU wins and a few other teams to lose):
  • Semis this year are the Peach and the Fiesta. They are flexible with what teams they slot to which semifinal, taking into account ease of travel for fan base, likely home field advantage, etc. giving preference to the first overall seed.
  • Presuming Alabama is #1, they end up in the Peach. IF CU makes it into the playoff, it will almost surely be as the #4 seed, so the Buffs would be going to Atlanta.
  • There is a very, very slight chance that CU would somehow wind up #3 if there was complete chaos this weekend. That would put the Buffs in the Fiesta, but this is by far the least likely scenario in my opinion.
• CU wins, rest of the games go chalk:
  • Very likely CU ends up outside of the top 4 as P12 Champs. CU goes to the Rose Bowl.
• Favorable scenario- CU loses very close, other results break the right way and UW gets into the playoffs:
  • CU stays ahead of USC in the rankings (not a requirement, but would help) and the Rose Bowl committee likes the novelty of CU's turnaround season, puts CU in the Rose Bowl.
  • CU slides behind USC in the rankings and/or the RB committee decides USC would be better for ratings and attendance and selects USC:
    • As the only of the NY6 non-semi bowls to not have rigid conference affiliation, The Cotton Bowl MUST take WMU as the highest ranked G5 champ. They then get what's left out of everyone else, and I have to think there will be some fanbases they'd like better than CU's. I think the Cotton is just a little more likely than the Fiesta, which is to say not very likely at all.
    • CU likely then slots into the Alamo Bowl- CU's played there in the past in some good games, fanbase likely shows up pretty well in Texas as compared to other P12 schools, nostalgia factor, etc.
• Unfavorable scenario- CU loses, UW somehow gets left out of playoff:
  • UW goes to Rose
  • For the reasons mentioned above, CU is likely more attractive to the Alamo Bowl than USC and slots there.
  • This becomes the nightmare scenario if the Alamo Bowl selects USC- CU then ends up in the Holiday Bowl (or, worse, the Foster Farms bowl). This team deserves better than a 3rd or 4th tier bowl game this year.

Holiday bowl is typically considered a high level bowl game (at least that is the impression i get from around the web) and would be an awesome travel destination.

 

[GoBuffs08]

Rose would be great. I'm in the minority but would prefer the Holiday bowl or Foster Farms over Alamo simply because I'm going to be in Nevada over Christmas and it would be an easy drive to make the game.

 

[gobuffs58]

if we are in the foster farms bowl after the year the buffs had i will puke up all the pbr i drank the nite b4!

 

[InTheBuff]

V

Rose would be great. I'm in the minority but would prefer the Holiday bowl or Foster Farms over Alamo simply because I'm going to be in Nevada over Christmas and it would be an easy drive to make the game.

Vegas to San Antonio is only 18 1/2 hours ..

 

[CUFan]

I think we have to win on Friday or we are in the Alamo or some lower bowl like that. Even if we lose close to UW, I think we slide behind USC in the rankings (since they beat us, general USC-bias and people waiting for a reason to drop this CU team).

Basically, I think it is Rose Bowl (plus outside shot at playoff) or bust on Friday. Still a great season either way.

 

[SpacemanSpiff]

Wish espn would spend five minutes breaking down the games instead of talking about what might happen if one team wins.

Why do I care what espn thinks? The really ****ty preview has been enough for me so far!

 

[JWP303]

I looked up quite a bit of this stuff, and I think I have the following right:

• Playoff scenarios (CU wins and a few other teams to lose):
  • Semis this year are the Peach and the Fiesta. They are flexible with what teams they slot to which semifinal, taking into account ease of travel for fan base, likely home field advantage, etc. giving preference to the first overall seed.
  • Presuming Alabama is #1, they end up in the Peach. IF CU makes it into the playoff, it will almost surely be as the #4 seed, so the Buffs would be going to Atlanta.
  • There is a very, very slight chance that CU would somehow wind up #3 if there was complete chaos this weekend. That would put the Buffs in the Fiesta, but this is by far the least likely scenario in my opinion.
• CU wins, rest of the games go chalk:
  • Very likely CU ends up outside of the top 4 as P12 Champs. CU goes to the Rose Bowl.
• Favorable scenario- CU loses very close, other results break the right way and UW gets into the playoffs:
  • CU stays ahead of USC in the rankings (not a requirement, but would help) and the Rose Bowl committee likes the novelty of CU's turnaround season, puts CU in the Rose Bowl.
  • CU slides behind USC in the rankings and/or the RB committee decides USC would be better for ratings and attendance and selects USC:
    • As the only of the NY6 non-semi bowls to not have rigid conference affiliation, The Cotton Bowl MUST take WMU as the highest ranked G5 champ. They then get what's left out of everyone else, and I have to think there will be some fanbases they'd like better than CU's. I think the Cotton is just a little more likely than the Fiesta, which is to say not very likely at all.
    • CU likely then slots into the Alamo Bowl- CU's played there in the past in some good games, fanbase likely shows up pretty well in Texas as compared to other P12 schools, nostalgia factor, etc.
• Unfavorable scenario- CU loses, UW somehow gets left out of playoff:
  • UW goes to Rose
  • For the reasons mentioned above, CU is likely more attractive to the Alamo Bowl than USC and slots there.
  • This becomes the nightmare scenario if the Alamo Bowl selects USC- CU then ends up in the Holiday Bowl (or, worse, the Foster Farms bowl). This team deserves better than a 3rd or 4th tier bowl game this year.

Thank you for the breakdown.

 

[Ruckus]

The committee keeping a two-loss non conference contender at 5 is a joke. If Michigan makes the playoff, they have no credibility at all. Didn't think they would be that ****ing stupid.

 

[GoBeers]

• Unfavorable scenario- CU loses, UW somehow gets left out of playoff:
  • UW goes to Rose
  • For the reasons mentioned above, CU is likely more attractive to the Alamo Bowl than USC and slots there.
  • This becomes the nightmare scenario if the Alamo Bowl selects USC- CU then ends up in the Holiday Bowl (or, worse, the Foster Farms bowl). This team deserves better than a 3rd or 4th tier bowl game this year.

Holiday Bowl is a decent Bowl, and it's a great city, especially great mid-winter. It will also be a Big Ten opponent (Nebraska seems possible), while Alamo is a Big 12 opponent and in Texas. Also, consider that San Diego voted on and vetoed a new NFL stadium. There might not be any stadium for a bowl game in a few years. No way would CU end up below the Holiday Bowl.

 

[dio]

These rankings mean CU has a very decent shot at the Rose Bowl. In fact, I would say it is likely based on current rankings.

 

[BuffinCali]

ESPN is projecting CU to the Alamo Bowl vs. OU or OSU, with Dub in the CFP and USC to the Rose Bowl. It would be disappointing, in my eyes, to have CU play in any other than the CFP or Rose Bowl at worst.

 

[onealcd]

So if I am looking at this correctly, worst case lose close on Friday and the big 10 champ game is a blow out and we are almost guaranteed to be in rose or cotton.

 

[PhillyBuff]

The committee keeping a two-loss non conference contender at 5 is a joke. If Michigan makes the playoff, they have no credibility at all. Didn't think they would be that ****ing stupid.

That's your problem..... the criteria that you are using to pick your top 4 teams is wrong.

The purpose of the College Football Playoff is to pick the best 4 teams. It is not to eliminate a team based on when they lose over the course of the season.

You have to look at each game individually as equal. No one game means more than another. You seem to be weighting when Michigan lost....

Try my exercise using Teams A,B,C, and D.... it's so clear if you give each game equal weight and don't care about when those losses occurred, you get as your 5-8...

Michigan
Colorado
Wisconsin
Penn State

 

[Dark Bohner]

That's your problem..... the criteria that you are using to pick your top 4 teams is wrong.

The purpose of the College Football Playoff is to pick the best 4 teams. It is not to eliminate a team based on when they lose over the course of the season.

You have to look at each game individually as equal. No one game means more than another. You seem to be weighting when Michigan lost....

Try my exercise using Teams A,B,C, and D.... it's so clear if you give each game equal weight and don't care about when those losses occurred, you get as your 5-8...

Michigan
Colorado
Wisconsin
Penn State

Incorrect. The wins do need to be judged on when they occur. Winning a game with the pressure of a division or conference championship on the line is far more valuable than a pre-conference game. That's why the committee values conference champions so highly. Allegedly.

 

[cmgoods]

 

[Tractor]

If Clemson loses and we win, wouldn't there be a pretty good chance we get slotted at #3 so the big 10 champ isn't playing a rematch with osu in the first round?

That's my dream scenario

 

[CVilleBuff]

Holiday Bowl is a decent Bowl, and it's a great city, especially great mid-winter. It will also be a Big Ten opponent (Nebraska seems possible), while Alamo is a Big 12 opponent and in Texas. Also, consider that San Diego voted on and vetoed a new NFL stadium. There might not be any stadium for a bowl game in a few years. No way would CU end up below the Holiday Bowl.

Personally, I see very little difference in caliber between the Holiday and Alamo. But ugh, this team deserves the Rose with a decent showing against UW. Granted, we're going there to win. UW isn't invincible.

 

[azbuff]

If Clemson loses and we win, wouldn't there be a pretty good chance we get slotted at #3 so the big 10 champ isn't playing a rematch with osu in the first round?

That's my dream scenario

I agree. In the now highly unlikely scenario that we make the playoff, the committee will jump us to 3 so there isn't an all B10 semi. OSU in Phoenix would be a day.

 

[somebody]

Navy could disrupt the entire bowl system, well, everything Cotton Bowl and below anyway. This is awesome.

 

[Eggon]

F**k nostalgia for the Big 12 - we left that s**tty conference for a reason. We're in the Pac 12 and the Rose Bowl is the ultimate prize.

I very much enjoyed the Big 12 when we were battling Texas, little red, and the Okie's. But I am thrilled CU ended up in the PAC 12. Future looks very bright for the hubs of the West Coast. Trojans are my favorite to replace the little red people as our primary conference "Rival". Going to the Rose Bowl in January would be a huge thrill if we can get past the pups. Don't see the chairs lined up for us to get to the CFP due to the Big Ten buzz (which I think is overdone).

Also, congrats to you many fans on this board who now get to enjoy your own memories of success, rather than hear only reflections of the past. You will enjoy these memories for the rest of your days, and pretty soon you will sound just like those of us who are already on the back 9 . Fun stuff, Go Buffs!

 

[slider]

We've played better than the Holiday Bowl and even if given the choice we'd go Alamo Bowl imo

 

[wsp4820]

Go Navy!

 

[steph]

The only real championship is a conference championship. After that it becomes a subjective mashup of opinion, bias, and the result of a couple of games in a sport where on any given day the best team may not win. Honestly, do we really need playoffs and rankings and reams of statistics to tell us what everybody already knows..(spoiler alert!!)...drum roll...............................Alabama is the best college football team in the country this year. Sorry to spoil the suspense for everybody but I hate to see family bicker. Now can we just watch CU lay some whoopass on Washington and enjoy the ride wherever it goes from there?

 

[Jeric]

"All indications are that even if Colorado loses, the eighth-ranked Buffaloes will get the Rose Bowl bid because the CFP committee will not drop them below No. 11 USC in the final ranking, and the Rose Bowl folks are contractually obligated to give “strong preference’’ to the highest-ranked team.

“Unless there is a huge blowout in one of those conference championship games, I don’t think the committee wants to hurt a team for playing in them,’’ said Scott Jenkins, chairman of the Rose Bowl Management Committee. “If Colorado loses, I’d be surprised if Colorado drops much, if at all. It would be a surprise to me if USC jumps Colorado.”

“USC is one of the best teams out there right now,’’ Jenkins said. “But does that make the decision hard for us? No. We have our parameters.’’

 

[slider]

It's what I've been saying for a while. Book your Rose Bowl accommodations now

 

[Jeric]

If it were a CFP committee member I'd feel better about it, but it is a very good sign.