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Buffs will beat TCU on Sep 2

FLounder said:
That’s not true. We know they legitimately can’t get any worse than last years performances. We are eliminating half of the options. The wild card is how good will we be?
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What sucks is, unlike last year where I don’t think teams even had to game plan for us, we are probably going to get everyone’s best shot. Ain’t NO ONE wants to lose to this group.
 
CUAviator said:
What sucks is, unlike last year where I don’t think teams even had to game plan for us, we are probably going to get everyone’s best shot. Ain’t NO ONE wants to lose to this group.
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What doesn't suck, at least for the tcu game is that they really have as much of an idea as to what they will be facing as we do. To prepare for this game, tcu can only really make guesses. I expect a big first half for the buffs.

I am so excited to see the buffs take the field this year.
 
jaybird said:
What doesn't suck, at least for the tcu game is that they really have as much of an idea as to what they will be facing as we do. To prepare for this game, tcu can only really make guesses. I expect a big first half for the buffs.

I am so excited to see the buffs take the field this year.
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Yep. I fully believe we’re winning that game.
 
CUAviator said:
What sucks is, unlike last year where I don’t think teams even had to game plan for us, we are probably going to get everyone’s best shot. Ain’t NO ONE wants to lose to this group.
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That's what you want. When they bring their best game and still lose, you gain more confidence with every victory.
 
baldeagle said:
If you want to know what kind of player Prime is attracing, watch this documentary about Travis Hunter. These aren't just good players. They're dedicated to their craft AND they are quality personalities that aren't motivated by greed. They love to play football, and they love to win. I'm 75, and Prime makes e want to pu on pads and go hit somebody. What do you think he inspires in these kids? Trust me. They will out perform predictions by a wide margin.
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Are you staying that Prime wants kids that wants to put on pads AND WANTS to hit a 75 year old?
 
baldeagle said:
DId UGA play a sloppy game? Or did KS give them all they could handle? Sometimes sloppy games are the result of good defense.

QBs take a beating behind bad offensive lines. Behind good ones, they feast. Has Shedeur ever been injured? He left a game once after a hard hit and got admonished by his coach for not sliding, but he was back the next week, and the game he got hit in was already won by that point.

I don't think you ned to worry about the QB room,. The caoches know what they're doing. It's time to realize this is a different breed of team. All the coaches are top notch., The players are handpicked. They are going to ball out this fall, and the line play will be far beyond your expectations.

Im telling you, all the experts are looking at CU as a normal football team with a new coach. There aint nothin normal about this group.
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Agree there is nothing normal about this group.

If CU announces they are rejoining the Big 12, there could be more juice to this game.
 
Usually, you start with last year's record, and adjust from there.

Given the turnover, I don't think that's a valid approach.

I don't know what the right approach is though.

I almost think that given the turnover, you should start with the median college football team, or maybe they median pac12 team and adjust from there.

Player by player, coach by coach are they better or worse than 2022 wazzucla? (an even number makes medians weird.)

Now, after adjusting up or down based on comparing players and coaches, adjust for schedule.

I feel like depending on how Buff tinted your glasses are, you can get anywhere between 4 and 8 wins applying that methodology.

And... there are people, professionals who do this for a living, that will take the other side of a 3.5 win bet with you.
 
skibum said:
And... there are people, professionals who do this for a living, that will take the other side of a 3.5 win bet with you.
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The problem with the professionals is that they have no basis to make predictions. No one has ever done what Prime is doing, so you have to throw all predictions out the window. No professional wants to stick their head out, so they'll all call the win-loss record conservatively.

I stand by my prediction. They will beat TCU and be 3-0 going into week 4. And all the professionals will be tearing their hair out.
 
skibum said:
Usually, you start with last year's record, and adjust from there.

Given the turnover, I don't think that's a valid approach.

I don't know what the right approach is though.

I almost think that given the turnover, you should start with the median college football team, or maybe they median pac12 team and adjust from there.

Player by player, coach by coach are they better or worse than 2022 wazzucla? (an even number makes medians weird.)

Now, after adjusting up or down based on comparing players and coaches, adjust for schedule.

I feel like depending on how Buff tinted your glasses are, you can get anywhere between 4 and 8 wins applying that methodology.

And... there are people, professionals who do this for a living, that will take the other side of a 3.5 win bet with you.
Click to expand...
I see a high floor, low ceiling kind of year assuming Shedeur stays healthy-

Two sure wins
1. CSU-bad MWC team. For as bad as we've been, we're a couple TDs better than they are most years now.
2. Stanford-I think Troy Taylor can coach, but here's how I'd think about them in 2023-He's trying to change offensive systems at Stanford. That's a project because their academics are on another level. With them coming here, I think this is a W.

Three games I think could go either way, but I'd take CU in
1. Nebraska-I know we're going to spend all summer hyping the **** out of them and how Matt Rhule is somehow the guy who fixes that program........but here's a purely neutral opinion on them-Until they show they can take that next step, I'm going to hold to the opinion that they're a 4-5 (tops) win team.
2. Arizona-Jedd Fisch has that thing going in the right direction, but Dorrell's 2021 team (which wasn't much better than last year's team) beat them 34-0 here in 2021. I'm not expecting that because I think they're a lot better, but I think this is a W.
3. at ASU-Lots of roster turnover, and a coaching change. This is a W because I'll take a team that our staff has effectively handpicked over them right now.

Two chances to get something resembling a signature win
1. at UCLA-a lot of new pieces there. They're a weird program. I think they take a bit of a step back because Dr. DTR is finally gone....and I thought I read they have some new guys at the skill spots.
2. OSU-Best chance to upset somebody. That's a really good program, but they're facing expectations they haven't had that I can recall. How do they handle being a darkhorse title contender?

Three games I could see wins, but can't pick CU
1. USC-They are going to get everybody's best shot this year. They're really good, but I'm expecting them to drop one they shouldn't. Could that be to Coach Prime and CU? Can't rule it out.
2. Wazzu-Pullman's the Pac 12's version of Ames. ****hole of a town, and the weather up there could be a total crapshoot. More likely W than USC, but I can't pick it.
3. at TCU-I will take the Buffs and the points in this game, but I can't take CU to win it right now.

Two sure losses
1. at Oregon
2. at Utah

The schedule is tough, but its not as hard as it looks. Definitely a path to 6 wins and a bowl here.
 
ahoelsken said:
I see a high floor, low ceiling kind of year assuming Shedeur stays healthy-

Two sure wins
1. CSU-bad MWC team. For as bad as we've been, we're a couple TDs better than they are most years now.
2. Stanford-I think Troy Taylor can coach, but here's how I'd think about them in 2023-He's trying to change offensive systems at Stanford. That's a project because their academics are on another level. With them coming here, I think this is a W.

Three games I think could go either way, but I'd take CU in
1. Nebraska-I know we're going to spend all summer hyping the **** out of them and how Matt Rhule is somehow the guy who fixes that program........but here's a purely neutral opinion on them-Until they show they can take that next step, I'm going to hold to the opinion that they're a 4-5 (tops) win team.
2. Arizona-Jedd Fisch has that thing going in the right direction, but Dorrell's 2021 team (which wasn't much better than last year's team) beat them 34-0 here in 2021. I'm not expecting that because I think they're a lot better, but I think this is a W.
3. at ASU-Lots of roster turnover, and a coaching change. This is a W because I'll take a team that our staff has effectively handpicked over them right now.

Two chances to get something resembling a signature win
1. at UCLA-a lot of new pieces there. They're a weird program. I think they take a bit of a step back because Dr. DTR is finally gone....and I thought I read they have some new guys at the skill spots.
2. OSU-Best chance to upset somebody. That's a really good program, but they're facing expectations they haven't had that I can recall. How do they handle being a darkhorse title contender?

Three games I could see wins, but can't pick CU
1. USC-They are going to get everybody's best shot this year. They're really good, but I'm expecting them to drop one they shouldn't. Could that be to Coach Prime and CU? Can't rule it out.
2. Wazzu-Pullman's the Pac 12's version of Ames. ****hole of a town, and the weather up there could be a total crapshoot. More likely W than USC, but I can't pick it.
3. at TCU-I will take the Buffs and the points in this game, but I can't take CU to win it right now.

Two sure losses
1. at Oregon
2. at Utah

The schedule is tough, but its not as hard as it looks. Definitely a path to 6 wins and a bowl here.
Click to expand...
I think Once September is done, this will be an easier team to gauge, especially with two colossal conference games notched in and a big non-conference game out of the way.

I still don’t see Rhule being any better/worse than Solich, Callahan, or Riley. Solich had the a decent enough boat from the mid-90’s, but got horribly exposed late in 2001, and all of 2002, before having a rise-like season to get 9 wins and the sack. Rhule will get mud holed in the B1G. There is near-0 excitement in the day-to-day in Omaha…aside from the local media.

I hope the SC-simp PAC officials get sick in late September when the Condoms come to Boulder. I’m still a little miffed about the way the 2019 game played out, when the Buffs had SC on the ropes until a BS call on Landman and a BS non-call on Montez happened. It’d be swell to see the Heisman hype for Williams tank while Shedeur’s hopes rocket!
 
ahoelsken said:
I see a high floor, low ceiling kind of year assuming Shedeur stays healthy-

Two sure wins
1. CSU-bad MWC team. For as bad as we've been, we're a couple TDs better than they are most years now.
2. Stanford-I think Troy Taylor can coach, but here's how I'd think about them in 2023-He's trying to change offensive systems at Stanford. That's a project because their academics are on another level. With them coming here, I think this is a W.

Three games I think could go either way, but I'd take CU in
1. Nebraska-I know we're going to spend all summer hyping the **** out of them and how Matt Rhule is somehow the guy who fixes that program........but here's a purely neutral opinion on them-Until they show they can take that next step, I'm going to hold to the opinion that they're a 4-5 (tops) win team.
2. Arizona-Jedd Fisch has that thing going in the right direction, but Dorrell's 2021 team (which wasn't much better than last year's team) beat them 34-0 here in 2021. I'm not expecting that because I think they're a lot better, but I think this is a W.
3. at ASU-Lots of roster turnover, and a coaching change. This is a W because I'll take a team that our staff has effectively handpicked over them right now.

Two chances to get something resembling a signature win
1. at UCLA-a lot of new pieces there. They're a weird program. I think they take a bit of a step back because Dr. DTR is finally gone....and I thought I read they have some new guys at the skill spots.
2. OSU-Best chance to upset somebody. That's a really good program, but they're facing expectations they haven't had that I can recall. How do they handle being a darkhorse title contender?

Three games I could see wins, but can't pick CU
1. USC-They are going to get everybody's best shot this year. They're really good, but I'm expecting them to drop one they shouldn't. Could that be to Coach Prime and CU? Can't rule it out.
2. Wazzu-Pullman's the Pac 12's version of Ames. ****hole of a town, and the weather up there could be a total crapshoot. More likely W than USC, but I can't pick it.
3. at TCU-I will take the Buffs and the points in this game, but I can't take CU to win it right now.

Two sure losses
1. at Oregon
2. at Utah

The schedule is tough, but its not as hard as it looks. Definitely a path to 6 wins and a bowl here.
Click to expand...
Utah's roster will never scare me, no matter their record or our record.
 
SeanMSan said:
I still don’t see Rhule being any better/worse than Solich, Callahan, or Riley. Solich had the a decent enough boat from the mid-90’s, but got horribly exposed late in 2001, and all of 2002, before having a rise-like season to get 9 wins and the sack. Rhule will get mud holed in the B1G. There is near-0 excitement in the day-to-day in Omaha…aside from the local media.
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Rhule lost his #1 QB and three (3) wide receivers to the portal. They're going to struggle early in the season. They might find their footing after three or four games, but CU plays them in week 2.
 
baldeagle said:
Rhule lost his #1 QB and three (3) wide receivers to the portal. They're going to struggle early in the season. They might find their footing after three or four games, but CU plays them in week 2.
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Not that I disagree with the nubs struggling early on, but this argument could also be applied to the Buffs. After all, we have an entirely new roster.
 
married2abuff said:
Not that I disagree with the nubs struggling early on, but this argument could also be applied to the Buffs. After all, we have an entirely new roster.
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Yup. Im pretty sure we’ll be 2-3 heading into the ASU game before the team comes together and has a nice run thru the back half of the schedule
 
baldeagle said:
I stand by my prediction. They will beat TCU and be 3-0 going into week 4. And all the professionals will be tearing their hair out.
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You know that you can back this opinion up with cash and make a good amount of money if you are right?
 
baldeagle said:
Rhule lost his #1 QB and three (3) wide receivers to the portal. They're going to struggle early in the season. They might find their footing after three or four games, but CU plays them in week 2.
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They lost their #1 QB only because he was destined to be their #2 QB. That's a gain, not a loss.

I think the roster turnover is less meaningful than a roster that has a new coaching staff. This is true for both teams.
Nubs hired pretty respected OC and DC. I think their depth on both lines will be shaky, and I'm not a believer in their OL coach.
Rhule will get them back to bowl eligible soon enough.

I'm more worried about CSU who will be in year 2. Its their super bowl and they will come to play.
Too easy of a game for our guys to overlook being the middle game between TCU, Nubs, Oregon and USC.
We will see what sort of leadership we have.

The first 5 games are absolutely a brutal way to break in a new staff and system.
 
Jeff Sims was going to be the #1 QB for Nebraska as buffaholic wrote. Sims is a true dual threat qb with a good arm. The key to beating him is getting in his face and forcing bad decisions, which he is apt to do.
 
The key to upsetting TCU is QB Chandler Morris. He has limited starts and has been wildly up and down in that small sample size.
 
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