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Sheldon said:
You are stuck on that.

There was a reason I said the number I did. I don't care about the odds you wanted, and that's all you wouldn't posted had i said anything above 90%.

Let it go. You didn't want the bet I offered. I understand.
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I am stuck on getting a fair price on a wager instead of the idiotic price you offered. Yes. We all understand that you’ve backtracked. We all understand that you offered a bet that you knew I wouldn’t take because you never wanted to bet in the first place.
 
manhattanbuff said:
I am stuck on getting a fair price on a wager instead of the idiotic price you offered.
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You were pretty confident my opinion was wrong. So, I offered a wager. You declined. I wasn't interested in any other bet or other odds, and i said as much. I don't think that's backtracking.

You call it how you see it. I'm okay with that too.
 
Booth This Isnt Over GIF by Bones

Apparently.....
 
Sheldon said:
You were pretty confident my opinion was wrong. So, I offered a wager. You declined. I wasn't interested in any other is, and i said as much. I don't think that's backtracking.

You call it how you see it. I'm okay with that too.
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Your opinion started as Bryce Young will 100% be the first QB taken. My reply was that the likelihood of him being selected first is less than 100%. You offered me a bet and yourself later indicated explicitly that the chances of him being the first QB selected were approximately 50%. I agreed that we should bet so long as we have a fair price. I offered you a deal compared to your original position.

You want to offer odds that don’t correspond to probability. That is not a fair bet, which (other than you now agreeing with me) is why I continue to bring up the probability discussion.
 
Sheldon said:
You were pretty confident my opinion was wrong. So, I offered a wager. You declined. I wasn't interested in any other bet or other odds, and i said as much. I don't think that's backtracking.

You call it how you see it. I'm okay with that too.
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it’s like your trying to bet 49ers to win outright this weekend (-190s) and but want even odds
 
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Sheldon said:
I'm a punk because i offered a bet that you didn't want to do. You then offered one i had no interest in.

Yet, I'm the punk?

Ok, got it. I can handle that.

Appreciate ya.
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Yes, you are a punk. Says “this thing will 100% happen.” Then you say “let’s bet at odds of this happening 50% of the time.”
 
Sheldon said:
Ok. Good deal. Like the opinion.

Appreciate ya.
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Sheldon:

Here's a tip. You opened the door to a bit of Manhattan's sophistry with you said early on that "90% of the predictions" you had seen were saying that Young would be the first QB drafted. That allowed him to conflate that "90%" into a $450 / $50 odds proposal as though the predictions of a mid sized number of predictors on this subject matter carried the same odds-making gravitas as, let's say, a series of 10 tennis matches between the same 2 players in which Guy A had beaten Guy B 9 times out of 10. And clearly both contrasting data sets (the draft predictions vs the theoretical 10 tennis matches) have virtually nothing in common as data by which to set betting odds. It's like comparing bananas and wheelbarrows. His $450 / $50 is more reasonable for the tennis example but not for your subject.

Manhattan is a skilled debater and negotiator. He took your structure and ran with it. But both of your odds proposals are off. Just based on a gut feeling, and before the combine, I think "Young will be the first QB taken" should be about -175 and "Young will not" feels about like +150. I personally wouldn't bet much money on this subject because it involves the acts or the non-acts of third party actors, i.e. NFL GMs. It's not a bet on a head to head contest and there are too many variables. Which might be why you proposed a modest $50 bet anyway.
 
PAHIBuff said:
His $450 / $50 is more reasonable for the tennis example but not for your subject.
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I completely understand that.

I think everyone is missing the point... I offered a bet. He didn't accept it, that was fine for me. He offered his version, I declined... yet, cannot seem to just move on.

Either way, appreciate the input.

Thanks.
 
Sheldon said:
I completely understand that.

I think everyone is missing the point... I offered a bet. He didn't accept it, that was fine for me. He offered his version, I declined... yet, cannot seem to just move on.

Either way, appreciate the input.

Thanks.
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It seems like you’re the one missing the point.
 
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