Buffnik has been banging this gong for years now, but a Nationally relevant USC and either/or/both of Oregon and Washington is incredibly important for Pac 12 success.
USC is well off historical standards of success for an extended period. Oregon is a shadow of the juggernaut it was in the 00’s. Washington can’t seem to truly emerge.
High tide lifts all boats.
My son asked me about PAC-12 relevance Saturday. In the past, I thought conferences were more cyclical; but in this age it looks like it will be a long slog back for the PAC-12. In the past, the NCAA enforcement office seemed to have more teeth/impact , as it generally took much longer to get past the stain of being on probation/bowl bans. This was one tool. Now with these power conferences, it seems SEC/B1B & ACC really wield the power and will do so for sometime. I'm not sure that will re-balance anytime soon, especially if ND either joins the ACC or plays an ACC heavy schedule.
As I see it, although the PAC-12 will re-negotiate their TV rights, I still believe the PAC will be severely behind the 8-ball. I feel like except for a few marquee games, the conference seems pigeonholed-holed into the late afternoon/evening TV slots. I know the 9am/10am games are an option, but I'm not sure how much of an inroad the PAC will make in the early morning slot (except for USC/ASU game, I'd imagine this will be a filler for less popular PAC teams). I'm not sure the PAC-12 will make further inroads on ESPN, as they seem set with ACC/B1G/SEC on the weekends, except for the night slots. I think Fox will continue to split their coverage. ABC only typically slots one PAC-12 game. The PAC-12 Network is a disaster. Part of that was not getting that DirectTV deal done.
Another concern is the ongoing battle between cable/dish providers battle and the programmers/channels. Altitude is still keeping the Avs and Nugs off Comcast/Xfinity in Denver Metro and that does not look to break anytime soon. The programmers are kicking local networks off Dish/DirectTV, such that even NFL games are in play.
@Liver can probably speak to this, but I read an article about a year ago, about the Dodgers only being on like 1 in 6 Angeleno's tv networks. They either did an exclusive with one provider, or they could not negotiate with the others. I have not delved deeply into the subject--although there are always statements by both sides about on-going good faith contract negotiations that seemingly go nowhere, I'm not convinced that this is not an exclusive play for one provider over another in certain cities. That seems to be where the business model is trending. For overall TV exposure, I think the PAC will continue to lag nationally.
I think the California High School football restrictions and the exodus of youth/high school football across the PAC-12 will diminish the overall talent/recruit pool within the Pac-12's footprint. This could be impacting attendance. Also, the PAC is just not the South or Texas, where college football is king. Same with the B1G, although other sports may compete, the loyalty, long history of the schools, and rivalries drive their exposure.
Then it is the PAC itself, in truth from a national perspective, historically it is 4 teams: USC, OU (last 25 years), UCLA (sort of down for a while) and UW (although despite many great seasons, UW always seems to be a lesser player on the national stage for some reason). Stanford does get decent exposure. To improve, I think the PAC has to gave some sustained runs by 8-9 teams (the historical 4 + 5 more) for certain periods of time. They cannot all make the runs together in one-four seasons stretches, but CU, UT, CAL, ASU, all need to have periods of some breakthroughs and gain prominence. I do like CU's chances in the South. It is sort of interesting that for all CU's struggles since joining the PAC, from a historical perspective over the past 50 CU is about on par with UCLA (the head to heads are skewed since CU joined the PAC, UCLA 191Ws, CU 187Ws 4Ts) highly ranked games; CU actually holds an edge on major bowl appearances +NC, conference titles (using CU in B12/Pac12), etc... UCLA has played in 2 PAC-12 championship games, CU 1. A CU breakout for the PAC-12 South would be a great development for the PAC.